Is MacPhail the right GM to take this team to the next level?

[Sports Guy]

Yeah there's no difference.

This begs the question: Do you need to spend big time money in free agency to achieve the next level?

The Orioles need to do one of 2 things:

1) Spend in FA.

2) Make some trades like ARam and Lee deals.

They must do one or the other..or both.

In addition to what they have, they likely need another top to mid rotation starter and at least 1 more big bat(875+ OPS) guy...Would also be nice to have another high OBP guy.

[Hank Scorpio]

The Orioles need to do one of 2 things:

1) Spend in FA.

2) Make some trades like ARam and Lee deals.

They must do one or the other..or both.

In addition to what they have, they likely need another top to mid rotation starter and at least 1 more big bat(875+ OPS) guy...Would also be nice to have another high OBP guy.

I agree, assuming those needs aren't fulfilled internally. (Arrieta/Britton, Bell)

I'm not convinced that they need to give out any 7 year deals, though.

[Sports Guy]

I agree, assuming those needs aren't fulfilled internally. (Arrieta/Britton, Bell)

I'm not convinced that they need to give out any 7 year deals, though.

No, they don't have to...But those guys are the guys that are normally difference making talents.

Now, that's not to say that guys like Lee, Dunn and Pena can't be difference makers...But let's face it, generally speaking, guys who get 2 year deals are getting short term deals for a reason. Older, oft injured, inconsistent, etc...

[Hank Scorpio]

No, they don't have to...But those guys are the guys that are normally difference making talents.

Now, that's not to say that guys like Lee, Dunn and Pena can't be difference makers...But let's face it, generally speaking, guys who get 2 year deals are getting short term deals for a reason. Older, oft injured, inconsistent, etc...

The best case scenario is one of developing as many of your own as you can, then buying out 2 or 3 of their most productive years and trying to keep that wheel churning.

Obviously, that is an extremely difficult charge. But if you can get a solid group of 3-5 players in their peak years at the same time, it makes your free agent requirements much more realistic. It's all about timing, buying & selling, drafting and developing at the same time.

[Sports Guy]

The best case scenario is one of developing as many of your own as you can, then buying out 2 or 3 of their most productive years and trying to keep that wheel churning.

Obviously, that is an extremely difficult charge. But if you can get a solid group of 3-5 players in their peak years at the same time, it makes your free agent requirements much more realistic. It's all about timing, buying & selling, drafting and developing at the same time.

The problem with this scenario is it means you basically have to be perfect and no sustain injuries.

When you have the big time FA guys in there, it gives you more margin of error.

[Moose Milligan]

The problem with this scenario is it means you basically have to be perfect and no sustain injuries.

When you have the big time FA guys in there, it gives you more margin of error.

Gotta disagree.

I think you have to have a lot of talent...enough that if one guy doesn't work out, that's alright you have some more that can take that guys place.

MLBN just was talking about the Holliday contract and other 100 million dollar contracts...on the screen the showed Kevin Brown, Barry Zito, Soriano and another (can't remember).

Basically, I think if you dish out a 100 million dollar contract, you better be damn sure it doesn't become an albatross. Of course some guys are better bets than others...no way I'd dish out 100 million to a pitcher.

But what about Prince Fielder? Sure he's a great hitter, durable (played all 162 this year) but you gotta look at his body type and wonder when it breaks down.

I like how deep our farm system is...I like that we graduated Tillman and Berg last year and that we're gonna graduate Matusz this year...still having Arrieta and Britton in the wings. Thats good depth, having potential guys who project to be at least a #3 starter at different levels at the minors at all time.

I'd much rather go to war with that battle plan instead of hoping and praying I'll spend 100 million dollars well.

[Hank Scorpio]

The problem with this scenario is it means you basically have to be perfect and no sustain injuries.

When you have the big time FA guys in there, it gives you more margin of error.

Right, I agree for the most part. You have to be extremely good and even luckier than that. It is essentially impossible to achieve.

But that should be the goal.

Maximize your expenditures on guys you'll likely get the most out of, then fill in the gaps however necessary. I think MacPhail is rapidly approaching a nice happy zone where he can identify gaps and fill them accordingly (whether it be via free agency or trade), while winning baseball games at the same time.

Reimold is 26 and he'll be around for 5 more years prior to free agency, so we're likely to get his best years without having to worry about any extension. Jones may be an extension candidate depending on what you see from him this year & next. Obviously, you're cooked on Wieters, but you've got a nice 6 year window with him, too. Same thing with the pitchers, Bell, Snyder, Arrieta, Erbe, etc....

The Orioles have an excellent shot in the next 5-7 years to be very good and relatively cheap (even if they hand out 2-3 extensions), which should leave plenty of expendable talent and money to fill whatever gaps show up.

It's an extremely enviable position IMO, but you really have to be careful and lucky make a run in this division.

But this is really the most efficient, reasonable way to make a run. You really can't go out checkbook blazing and give it a run that way without expecting a valley.

[carolinaoriole]

YES,

Macphail is the right GM to get the Orioles to the next level.

And IMO he proved that he is the right guy for the job by not signing overated players like Holiday,Bay and Beltre.

And by not overpaying for Lackey.

He is building this team and this organization for the long haul.

And I am behind him 100%

[JTrea81]

2) Make some trades like ARam and Lee deals.

See the problem with ARam and the Lee deals is the Cubs took advantage of two teams that didn't value their young players very highly.

You just can't pull those deals off any more IMO because all clubs now place a higher value on their good young position players.

[tilgaham]

See the problem with ARam and the Lee deals is the Cubs took advantage of two teams that didn't value their young players very highly.

You just can't pull those deals off any more IMO because all clubs now place a higher value on their good young position players.

See: Erik Bedard for : Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Kam Mickolio, and Tony Buttler.

also of note: George Sherril for: Josh Bell and Steve Johnson

I really don't understand the logic behind this post at all...:scratchchinhmm:

[Moose Milligan]

See the problem with ARam and the Lee deals is the Cubs took advantage of two teams that didn't value their young players very highly.

You just can't pull those deals off any more IMO because all clubs now place a higher value on their good young position players.

Thats false, to say that across the board, you just can't pull those deals off anymore.

What'd we get back for Bedard? What'd we get back for Olson? What'd we get back for Tejada?

[tilgaham]

Thats false, to say that across the board, you just can't pull those deals off anymore.

What'd we get back for Bedard? What'd we get back for Olson? What'd we get back for Tejada?

My sentiments exactly.

[JTrea81]

Thats false, to say that across the board, you just can't pull those deals off anymore.

What'd we get back for Bedard? What'd we get back for Olson? What'd we get back for Tejada?

It's not like the Orioles traded young prospects for solid young ML position players like Lee and ARam were.

They traded established veterans for prospects. You can do that. What you can't do is trade only 1-3 young prospects for established young ML talent.

In 2003, a 27 year old Lee had just completed 3 out of 4 seasons with an .870+ OPS. The Cubs got him for a 24 year old Hee Seop Choi and Mike Nannini some no-name minor league pitcher.

That would be the equivalent of trying to get Adrian Gonzalez for Brandon Snyder and Jim Miller for example. Good luck with that.

As for a 25 year old ARam, the Cubs traded Matt Brubeck, Jose Hernandez, and Bobby Hill to get him Lofton and cash.

That would be the equivalent of say Tony Butler, Ty Wigginton and Justin Turner for Ryan Zimmerman and $ plus a 35 year old Lofton type.

They robbed those teams.

Think you can get those deals that I proposed now, because that's what MacPhail would have to pull off.

Some GMs aren't as smart, but nobody's going to do those trades.

[Moose Milligan]

It's not like the Orioles traded young prospects for solid young ML position players like Lee and ARam were.

They traded established veterans for prospects. You can do that. What you can't do is trade only 1-3 young prospects for established young ML talent.

In 2003, Lee had just completed 3 out of 4 seasons with an .870+ OPS. The Cubs got him for a 24 year old Hee Seop Choi and Mike Nannini some no-name minor league pitcher.

That would be the equivalent of trying to get Adrian Gonzalez for Brandon Snyder and Jim Miller for example. Good luck with that.

As for ARam, the Cubs traded Matt Brubeck, Jose Hernandez, and Bobby Hill to get him Lofton and cash.

That would be the equivalent of say Tony Butler, Ty Wigginton and Justin Turner for Ryan Zimmerman and $

They robbed those teams.

Think you can get those deals that I proposed now, because that's what MacPhail would have to pull off.

Some GMs aren't as smart, but nobody's going to do those trades.

Yeah, but what are you gonna be saying if Pie has a monster year? It's not like his book has been written yet.

You gotta stop looking at theses trades through revisionist goggles, Trea. It's not like Choi wasn't ever a really hyped player.

Every franchise has trades like that in their histories. It's not like GM's just woke up in 2009 and said "Hey...wait a minute. These young guys are actually pretty valuable. Maybe I shouldn't be so quick to trade them..."

[JTrea81]

It's not like GM's just woke up in 2009 and said "Hey...wait a minute. These young guys are actually pretty valuable. Maybe I shouldn't be so quick to trade them..."

Actually that's almost exactly what happened. With rising FA salaries, clubs realized just how valuable that young talent was.

It wasn't just in 2009, but over the past few years teams have been holding on to their young talented players and pretty much have only been trading them for premium established veterans to put their club over the top.

Players like Sizemore, Zimmerman, Markakis have all been locked up instead of traded.

You just won't see those types of deals like the Cubs got. I will say that there will be deals will be for a prospect that a team has run out of patience with or is out of options, like a Felix Pie.

That hardly describes what Lee was to the Marlins or what Ramirez was for the Pirates. Both had several years of ML success.