Melewski: Keep Reimold in LF

[TyCobb]

I'm not sure I follow all of these equations. However, I'd like to see a formula where the O's have an .800+ OPS at both LF and DH, while playing pretty good LF defense. I think that is doable.

Tell you the truth I am more interested in the O's pitching than the Reimold v Pie competition in LF.

I don't see how Pie can give us a 800+ OPS. Pie barely had a 800 OPS in AAA in 2008.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't see how Pie can give us a 800+ OPS. Pie barely had a 800 OPS in AAA in 2008.

The second half of last year he had an .842 in the major leagues. It doesn't seem that much of a stretch that a 24-year-old could have worked for several months with a good hitting coach and improved.

[alexei606]

I think they both have plenty to prove. And I expect both to get ample opportunity to prove it in 2010.

I think that Pie has much more to prove in hitting than Reimold does. Defense is another question, but, Reimold when healthy was considered by scouts to be an above average OF who could play CF (I don't know if that last is still the case).

As to getting ample opportunities - I hope you are correct - Reimold though should be the primary LF unless he really can't play defense. I believe that Reimold's bat and glove are superior to Pie's bat and glove in LF and Scott is superior with others such as Atkins, Wigginton at DH. It is a waste of talent to have a 26 yr old speedy OF with a cannon arm as the primary DH and it may be a waste of talent to have a speedy, above average, prototypical CF as the LF or fourth OF.

As to age, Pie will be 25 on 2/8/10, just about 14 months younger than Reimold. That is not that big a difference considering what each has to prove, IMO.

[Frobby]

Tell you the truth I am more interested in the O's pitching than the Reimold v Pie competition in LF.

I don't see how Pie can give us a 800+ OPS. Pie barely had a 800 OPS in AAA in 2008.

The second half of last year he had an .842 in the major leagues. It doesn't seem that much of a stretch that a 24-year-old could have worked for several months with a good hitting coach and improved.

What Drungo said. The guy managed .763 last year despite his very slow start. He's not a shoo-in to be over .800 this year, but his odds aren't bad.

I don't really have a dog in this fight. I'm excited about both players. Let's say Pie turns into a guy who puts up an OPS in the .775-.825 range, and plays really good defense in both CF and LF; and Reimold turns into a guy who puts up an OPS in the .825-.875 range, with slightly below average LF defense. That's a great combo to have, and I'd keep both unless we got an offer that was so good we simply couldn't refuse it. We're several years away from producing another OF that good.

[RShack]

I haven't drawn any grand conclusions merely because AJ has had a couple of injuries early on in his career. I hope, though, that his training this winter has included some stretching and flexibility work so he won't have a nagging hamstring issue like he did last season.

Oh, I haven't concluded that he's gonna be on the All-Hospital Team like J.D. Drew was. It's just that I wanna see him play for a whole year before I go counting on it, that's all. I figure Pie gets some time in CF, but I don't pretend to know how much.

I liked what I saw of Reimold at the plate last year, but I want to see him do it again or improve on last year's numbers before I am convinced he's going to be a consistent big league hitter.

That's kinda my feeling about AJ playing a whole season in CF...

[alexei606]

I like Pie and am very interested in seeing what he can become. The anti-Pie sentiment on this board during the first half of last year was way over-the-top, and I think forced some of the "overvaluation" of Pie by his defenders.

All that said, Reimold is a good athlete that can hit a legit 30+ HR next year and eventually put up 35+ HR seasons. I don't think he'll ever be above-average, defensively, as his questionable routes have little to do with his injury last year. His footspeed helps make up for some of it, but I think he tops out at an average defender, which is great with that bat.

I want Pie to get regular at bats and to develop, but I wouldn't move Reimold to DH at this point in his career just to give Pie time in the field. My real concern is that we find out that Jones is not going to approach his 1st half production again, at least not regularly. That would be a shame.

I agree with your assessment for the most part, but have a question on your analysis of his routes. Reimold had little experience in LF before and I believe that his development as an OF was hindered by his injuries. I also believe that if you don't make the first move/jump correctly, your routes can look terrible (I was a CF, btw). If both are the case, and with his strong work ethic, do you not think that Reimold has a decent chance to be more than average defensively?

Even if he is just average, I agree that with his power bat, that is excellent. I also share your concerns about Jones (which is another reason why I think he should be traded).

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think that people who want a quick resolution here will be disappointed. As with other matters, AM is probably willing to let things play out in the OF this year--not just LF but CF too. He probably suspects that Jones may not stick in CF, and he may believe that Reimold's long term future is not in the OF, but he wants to see what happens, and he won't rock the boat until he's sure.

I doubt that he is worried about Pie's trade value, because I don't believe he intends to trade Pie any time soon. Pie's ability to play CF is key to all this, and he probably isn't going anywhere without a spectacular offer.

[Stotle]

I agree with your assessment for the most part, but have a question on your analysis of his routes. Reimold had little experience in LF before and I believe that his development as an OF was hindered by his injuries. I also believe that if you don't make the first move/jump correctly, your routes can look terrible (I was a CF, btw). If both are the case, and with his strong work ethic, do you not think that Reimold has a decent chance to be more than average defensively?

Even if he is just average, I agree that with his power bat, that is excellent. I also share your concerns about Jones (which is another reason why I think he should be traded).

First step is a big deal, as you know, because it sets your route. I agree that if the first step is improved upon it would help. I also agree that the ball is going to travel a little different to LF than it does to right, though it isn't as difficult as a shift from a corner to center.

My concern is that a lot of this is tained reflex. Knowing at contact where that ball generally lands and setting off that way. I thought Reimold had issues with distance as much as trajectory, which shouldn't be the case in a right to left shift. I think being healthier will aid his tracking (which is pretty good), but I'm not sure I expect a big bump in off-the-bat reads if he isn't there already. But when you get down to it, what do I really know? He's a good athlete -- maybe my concerns are way off.

[Sports Guy]

I actually do think that people overrate Reimold's defensive struggles last year.

That being said, I don't think he will ever be much more than average..which of course should be fine given what he should give us offensively.

Pie will always be better defensively unless he is suffering from injuries himself.

[Can_of_corn]

The second half of last year he had an .842 in the major leagues. It doesn't seem that much of a stretch that a 24-year-old could have worked for several months with a good hitting coach and improved.

Considering that his OPS vs LH pitching in the minors has been the following:

2005- .783

2006- .649

2007- .547

2008- .649

For a minor league career of .665 OPS vs LHP

I am thinking that as an everyday player he will have problems keeping a .800 OPS in the majors.

[TonySoprano]

The fact that YOU believe all of this, makes me feel so much better about my opinion. Thank you for that. :clap3:

Reimold was arguable our best hitter last year. It was his first season in the MLB, he had an Achilles injury that bother him so much he was force to alter the way he ran (later to have surgery to repair), and it was his first season playing LF.

Reimold's bat needs to be in the lineup as much as anybody on this team.

You overrate Pie to the point where it is delusional.

I'll cut SG some slack on the delusional part, but the OPS numbers show Reimold was the best hitter on the team. Give him the same number of at bats as Markakis and you get 27 HRs and 81 RBI. He did this on a bum leg, but he played the game with such determination, you didn't know he had been playing hurt. Reimold's RHP/LHP OPS splits were .841/.815; Pie's were .789/.623.

[hoosiers]

I'll cut SG some slack on the delusional part, but the OPS numbers show Reimold was the best hitter on the team. Give him the same number of at bats as Markakis and you get 27 HRs and 81 RBI. He did this on a bum leg, but he played the game with such determination, you didn't know he had been playing hurt. Reimold's RHP/LHP OPS splits were .841/.815; Pie's were .789/.623.

Agree with the stat-based analysis showing Reimold likely to be a comfortably better hitter though I like both hitters a lot. I believe Reimold will be at least average defensively in LF and that Pie's numbers translate better to him being an above average CFer instead of him gathering a ton of LF ABs.

[rooster1]

Reimold was arguable our best hitter last year. It was his first season in the MLB, he had an Achilles injury that bother him so much he was force to alter the way he ran (later to have surgery to repair), and it was his first season playing LF.

Reimold's bat needs to be in the lineup as much as anybody on this team.

You overrate Pie to the point where it is delusional.

Couldn't agree more. Reimold getting ABs and reps in the outfield needs to be the priority. He is a much better player than Pie and deserves his OF spot.

They aren't going to move Scott to 1st- he will be our DH full time as of right now. If anything with Scott changes, then the Pie playing more in the OF over Reimold can become more realistic. But until then, Pie is our 4th OF.

[TyCobb]

The second half of last year he had an .842 in the major leagues. It doesn't seem that much of a stretch that a 24-year-old could have worked for several months with a good hitting coach and improved.

I am not saying it isn't possible for Pie to be a 800+ OPS player. I just don't see it happening. I don't see what everyone is raving about him either. He doesn't look like some special athlete to me.

I would not mind at all giving Pie a chance as a CFer, if we didn't already have Adam Jones at CF. Who looks like a special player.

Everyone seems to be banking Pie putting 10-20 UZR in LF. That is very hard to do consistently.

In 2009 only 3 players did it (Crawford, DeJesus, Rivera)

In 2008 one player did it (Crawford)

In 2007 3 players did it (Soriano, Holliday, Byrnes)

In 2006 no one did it.

In 2005 two player did it (Crisp, Crawford)

In 2004 one player did it (Crawford)

In 2003 four players did it (Berkman, Crawford, Anderson, Bonds)

In 2002 one player did it (J. Jones)

Crawford is the cream of the crop for LF. He posted an outstanding 14.4 UZR/150 for his career in LF.

I actually would bet against Pie putting up a 10+ UZR if he played in LF next season. And that has to do with the fact that it is very hard to do it. Not because I don't believe the scouts who say he is a great fielder.

[byrdz]

Couldn't agree more. Reimold getting ABs and reps in the outfield needs to be the priority. He is a much better player than Pie and deserves his OF spot.

They aren't going to move Scott to 1st- he will be our DH full time as of right now. If anything with Scott changes, then the Pie playing more in the OF over Reimold can become more realistic. But until then, Pie is our 4th OF.

AM has stated, in not so many words, that the DH duties will be rotated. On the glut of outfielders:

"I don't really look at this as a huge problem like everybody else seems to. I like the idea that I've got four guys for three outfield spots, and we can always rotate them in the DH spot."

Now, if someone gets injured for an extended period of time, maybe you see Scott there mostly. But you'd be doing your team a disservice if you didn't arrange your lineup and using the DH slot for matchups.

.