MacPhail:"this week we would put the finishing touches on" the roster."

[GoldGlove21]

Read this and get back to me. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/crede-flying-under-the-radar-again I think your reasoning is very muddled. The cheap business is a tired old whine. If they weren't high on Bell they would have gone after Beltre and Figgins. I doubt they would have gone after LaRoche for the 2 years it would have taken to get him here, even if they didn't like Snyder better, because there are too many better 1B options in FA 2011-2012.

This line came from the same article (Which I read earlier and still feel the same about Crede), sounds like an Orioles guy through and through. Low risk, high reward when compared to the salary he is likely to receive. If you had to rank Crede in terms of overall third baseman (offense and defense) in the game where would you rank him if he had no history or injury? Where would you rank him given his recent injury history.

"This means that Crede could once again be a great target for some team to swoop in and steal for cheap."

Crede HAS to field well or his value is very limited and I would imagine that fielding with a bad back is much harder than with a good back.

[berto]

As many posters have argued, why not just stick Luke Scott at 1B?

Luke Scott at 1B stands out as the best possible scenario for this team in 2010.

I'm baffled by MacPhail's approach to the corners this offseason.

1. He says that he really likes Felix Pie but wants to add Joe Crede, who would effectively take Pie out of the everyday lineup. That IMO is a huge mistake. Pie should ABSOLUTELY play as much as possible in 2010.

2. He actively pursued and landed a third-basemen in Garrett Atkins who is in the midst of a downward spiral. It later comes out that his intention was to bring him in for 1B. That is strange considering guys like LaRoche were still on the board and the strategy was to let the market 'percolate.' A guy who hit .226 last year is not a guy to actively pursue especially for 1B. I don't necessarily disagree with the signing but the timing of it is very odd to me.

3. The addition of Crede would put another black hole in to the bottom of the order. Everyone remembers how awful the 7-8-9 spots were last April with Zaun-Pie-Izturis. A repeat performance with Atkins-Crede-Izturis is definitely NOT what this team needs to get off to a good start this year.

4. AM doesn't seem to be concerned with Crede's health. That is strange since he's got a relative down scouting Carlos Delgado. Crede has got just of good a chance or even better to be injured this season.

Stick Luke at 1B this spring and watch him play a respectable 1B this season and hit .275 and jack 30 bombs.

Let Felix play everyday and let him continue to develop into a superstar.

DH Reimold and put him in LF against left-handers.

I agree 100%.

[Roll Tide]

We can always use another right handed bat and Tejada would add more scoring production to the lineup. He could play SS, 3B and DH. Where would he bat? 5th, 6th or 7th?

AM also said not to rule out a trade. Let's make a big move and trade for Josh Johnson of the Marlins. Power pitcher, innings eater and young. P

erfect to go with Millwood, Matusz, Guthrie.....and Bergesen.

Johnson, Tejada and Hendrickson along with Millwood, Gonzalez and Atkins would rate at least a B or B+ on the ratings board.

We have the pieces the Marlins could use to make this deal and should do it. He just got extended and is not making too much the next two years before his salary escalates. He will average just under $10 million per year over the next 4 years which fits their budget.

Nice Post ...I agree

I guess the big question is ...What will the Marlins accept that AM is willing to give up?

[GoldGlove21]

As many posters have argued, why not just stick Luke Scott at 1B?

Luke Scott at 1B stands out as the best possible scenario for this team in 2010.

I'm baffled by MacPhail's approach to the corners this offseason.

1. He says that he really likes Felix Pie but wants to add Joe Crede, who would effectively take Pie out of the everyday lineup. That IMO is a huge mistake. Pie should ABSOLUTELY play as much as possible in 2010.

2. He actively pursued and landed a third-basemen in Garrett Atkins who is in the midst of a downward spiral. It later comes out that his intention was to bring him in for 1B. That is strange considering guys like LaRoche were still on the board and the strategy was to let the market 'percolate.' A guy who hit .226 last year is not a guy to actively pursue especially for 1B. I don't necessarily disagree with the signing but the timing of it is very odd to me.

3. The addition of Crede would put another black hole in to the bottom of the order. Everyone remembers how awful the 7-8-9 spots were last April with Zaun-Pie-Izturis. A repeat performance with Atkins-Crede-Izturis is definitely NOT what this team needs to get off to a good start this year.

4. AM doesn't seem to be concerned with Crede's health. That is strange since he's got a relative down scouting Carlos Delgado. Crede has got just of good a chance or even better to be injured this season.

Stick Luke at 1B this spring and watch him play a respectable 1B this season and hit .275 and jack 30 bombs.

Let Felix play everyday and let him continue to develop into a superstar.

DH Reimold and put him in LF against left-handers.

Luke Scott is no where near a lock to hit 23 homeruns, much less 30. I think the Orioles view Scott as a DH with limited offensive upside. That guy might be traded before ST starts. As we continue to add parts (Especially if we sign a guy like Crede) I start to wonder where Scott makes enough of an impact to warrant a $4M salary.

It is really hard to figure out what the Orioles are trying to do sometimes. It's like wins and losses do not seem to matter. We just write off season after season with a foolish thought process. There is no reason why this team can not allow its young players to develop and win games at the same time.

[EL_Coyote]

Whose expectations? On what basis?

If you take a composite (simple average) of the usual prediction systems, you're looking at a team that scores nearly as many runs as it allows. And that's usually good for about 81 wins.

Of course you could debate the validity of those systems. But to say that 75 games represents the upper limit of expectations is literally not true. Because the informed and presumably unbiased expectations for 80-85 wins are definitely out there.

I'll admit I could be dead wrong here. These however are my opinions.

My expectations (I consider them reasonable). With 75 wins the primary goal.

I expect a few different things.

Good

1) Team E.R.A. to drop significantly anywhere from 4.50-4.20

2) Expanded playing time for Weiters, Pie and Reimold to bump Team BA up.

3) Garrett Atkins (a solid 3B but unknown 1B) to help run production.

4) Young Prospects Arrieta, Bell and Snyder to get ML debuts late.

6) Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis do what they do.

Bad

1) 3/5 of our SPs haven't had a full season

2) Yankees, Red Sox and Rays in our division.

3) Only one left handed SP (Matusz) we really could use another.

4) Adam Jones to struggle with ML Pitching having figured him out.

5) Uehara and Berken are somewhat unknowns.

6) More base running gaffs

7) "Thank God I'm a Country Boy" returning. Somehow. :laughlol:

8) The need for creative line ups to be bandied about.

Don't get me wrong I think there is real improvement this season. I just think that the improvement tops off at 80 wins. Beyond that it appears unlikely this year. I really do hope I am wrong. However this club has a nasty history of falling apart in August and September.

Now if they sign Tejada and he accepted a role of 3B and back up SS. I might say 85 wins is the topping off point.

[Capn Vivi]

According to Fangraphs, Crede would be the better choice (between he and Tejada, that is) by a very narrow margin, assuming health (which cannot be assumed in Crede's case).

In the last two years, Crede has been worth 3.7 WAR to Tejada's 5.8 WAR, though Crede accomplished it in just over half as much playing time as Miggy.

If there's any reason the O's would sign Tejada it's because they don't like Crede's chances to stay healthy or they can get Miggy for a relative bargain.

Either way, I'd prefer we sign neither.

[Capn Vivi]

I'll admit I could be dead wrong here. These however are my opinions.

My expectations (I consider them reasonable). With 75 wins the primary goal.

Now if they sign Tejada and he accepted a role of 3B and back up SS. I might say 85 wins is the topping off point.

It's highly optimistic to expect Miggy could add up to 10 wins. Regardless of additional FA signings, any further additions, at this point, would force someone already on the team to lose AB's. Whether its Scott, Pie, or Reimold, any player we sign likely won't have a significant impact on the end of season results.

[EL_Coyote]

Re-stating that so it's understood

75 wins is my expectation for the Orioles in 2010

80 wins being the topping off point

I do thing Tejada could bump it up to 80 and 85 at the topping off point.

[GoldGlove21]

Re-stating that so it's understood

75 wins is my expectation for the Orioles in 2010

80 wins being the topping off point

I do thing Tejada could bump it up to 80 and 85 at the topping off point.

Tejada is at max a 4 WAR player and that is pushing it. Tejada makes us a better team, but adding Tejada and starting him at third (or anyone else for that matter) means certain players will lose at bats. Let's look at the lineup pre and post the addition of a third baseman like Tejada.

Roberts

Reimold (DH)

Markakis

Jones

Wieters

Tejada (3B)

Atkins (1B)

Pie

Itzturis

In this scenario Luke Scott doesn't get his at bats. If Scott does get in then Pie or Reimold lose at bats. I would really hope that the Orioles would be prepared to move Scott or Wigginton if they did sign a guy like Tejada. No matter what the combination of players we drum up, Tejada is not 3 wins better than Crede (If he stays healthy for half a season).

I can't tell you how many games the Orioles or any other team will win, but it is hard to see a scenario where this team is 21 wins better then last years team. I think the team wins 72-78 games in 2010, but my guess is as random as everyone else's.

[Capn Vivi]

I can't tell you how many games the Orioles or any other team will win, but it is hard to see a scenario where this team is 21 wins better then last years team. I think the team wins 72-78 games in 2010, but my guess is as random as everyone else's.

If we see any improvement in the standings it's most likely due to improvement in the pitching. Our Pythagorean W/L last year was actually 5 games higher than our final record of 64-98. Assuming very mild improvement in Runs Scored, and a decent stride from our pitching, 78 wins is a real possibility even with the relatively innocuous off-season additions.

[GoldGlove21]

If we see any improvement in the standings it's most likely due to improvement in the pitching. Our Pythagorean W/L last year was actually 5 games higher than our final record of 64-98. Assuming very mild improvement in Runs Scored, and a decent stride from our pitching, 78 wins is a real possibility even with the relatively innocuous off-season additions.

I agree, but 78 wins is a far cry from 85 wins.

[JTrea81]

Tejada is at max a 4 WAR player and that is pushing it.

Tejada was a max 4.0 WAR player, but he's aged and unless he takes a time machine back to 2005, your best production from him is going to be something like 2.0-2.5 WAR taking into account his learning curve at 3B defensively.

[JTrea81]

If we see any improvement in the standings it's most likely due to improvement in the pitching. Our Pythagorean W/L last year was actually 5 games higher than our final record of 64-98. Assuming very mild improvement in Runs Scored, and a decent stride from our pitching, 78 wins is a real possibility even with the relatively innocuous off-season additions.

In this thread, given our additions and the CHONE projections it seems like we are around an 83-84 win team.

[DrungoHazewood]

Crede last year was worth 1 win more than Mora. Atkins at 1B could be worth more at 1B than at 3B because his glove will be les of a liability there. Remember to be an improvement over last years production he need only hit better than a .729 OPS. I doubt AM would have signed him if thats all he thought he could do. We aren't looking for players to get us to the play offs, we are looking for stop gaps for Bell and Snyder. For a team with poor defense, Crede makes a lot of sense. Again I trust the O's medical people on his health concerns

But the replacement level and expected production at first is significantly higher. An average first baseman probably has an OPS 50 points higher than an average third baseman. Moving Atkins from third to first means his likely production probably goes from maybe average to replacement level.

[Frobby]

In this thread, given our additions and the CHONE projections it seems like we are around an 83-84 win team.

My gut instinct is that this is a little optimistic. For one thing, you've done the pitching based on fan projections, and I'd like to know if the fan projections are better or worse than what CHONE and the other systems say. My guess is that the fans are on the optimistic side.