He's back! Tejada signs 1-yr deal.

[Lucky Jim]

I'm not passionate. I just think we made the wrong decision. There are only a few ways to look at this season:

A) Write it off and focus only on player development.

B) Load up and try to make a run.

We're not doing either of those. What we're doing can best be described by:

C) Make marginal improvements all across the team so that if we catch some breaks we can make a run a la the 2008 Rays but not at the cost of the future.

In this scenario, I see no value in having a stable 1.5 WAR player at 3B, especially one whose question marks are purely negative - i.e. maybe Tejada just can't play third and that's the end of that.

What we should do is embrace risk. Look at it as game theory. (I know this is simplified by a ton, but it's a thought experiment). Say we need 95 "points" to make the playoffs, and 25 "game pieces" that are each worth 3 points. That's only 75 points, and there's no variance, so we won't make the playoffs. Now say we have 25 pieces each worth 1-4 points. The expected value of the team is lower, but now we have a non-zero chance to make the playoffs.

Extend this. Say you have a team of 24 pieces that total up to a range of 85-98 points (a mix of variable and non-variable pieces), and you have two pieces you are considering adding - one worth 2 points and another worth 0-5 points. The math is too complex to do in my head right now since it would involve tallying up a lot of individual probabilities that make up this hypothetical 85-98 team, but I argue (and can easily prove, if you want) that this team gets more value, with value defined as the chance to reach or surpass 95 points ("making the playoffs"), from adding the non-variable 2 point piece than another hypothetical 70-90 point team. I'm sure you'll agree with me. Furthermore, the most important goal of a team whose peak is < 95 is increasing the peak of the team, not the overall expected value.

I'm sure you can see where this argument goes. I think the Orioles are in the 65-85 range, and therefore we should favor upside over reliability. I think Crede's range is 0-3 and Tejada more like 1-2. I KNOW, please, I know it's a very simplified analysis, but I think it makes a point worth considering.

How does Crede factor into this? How is Crede "loading up"?

[Moose Milligan]

I'm not passionate. I just think we made the wrong decision. There are only a few ways to look at this season:

A) Write it off and focus only on player development.

B) Load up and try to make a run.

We're not doing either of those. What we're doing can best be described by:

C) Make marginal improvements all across the team so that if we catch some breaks we can make a run a la the 2008 Rays but not at the cost of the future.

In this scenario, I see no value in having a stable 1.5 WAR player at 3B, especially one whose question marks are purely negative - i.e. maybe Tejada just can't play third and that's the end of that.

What we should do is embrace risk. Look at it as game theory. (I know this is simplified by a ton, but it's a thought experiment). Say we need 95 "points" to make the playoffs, and 25 "game pieces" that are each worth 3 points. That's only 75 points, and there's no variance, so we won't make the playoffs. Now say we have 25 pieces each worth 1-4 points. The expected value of the team is lower, but now we have a non-zero chance to make the playoffs.

Extend this. Say you have a team of 24 pieces that total up to a range of 85-98 points (a mix of variable and non-variable pieces), and you have two pieces you are considering adding - one worth 2 points and another worth 0-5 points. The math is too complex to do in my head right now since it would involve tallying up a lot of individual probabilities that make up this hypothetical 85-98 team, but I argue (and can easily prove, if you want) that this team gets more value, with value defined as the chance to reach or surpass 95 points ("making the playoffs"), from adding the non-variable 2 point piece than another hypothetical 70-90 point team. I'm sure you'll agree with me. Furthermore, the most important goal of a team whose peak is < 95 is increasing the peak of the team, not the overall expected value.

I'm sure you can see where this argument goes. I think the Orioles are in the 65-85 range, and therefore we should favor upside over reliability. I think Crede's range is 0-3 and Tejada more like 1-2. I KNOW, please, I know it's a very simplified analysis, but I think it makes a point worth considering.

How is this season not about anything but player development?

Wieters, Reimold, Jones, Bergesen, Tillman, Matusz and to a lesser extent, Pie. Not to mention what's going on in our minor leagues with Arrieta, Bell and Snyder and seeing if they can see time in Baltimore in 2010.

[RShack]

I'm not passionate. I just think we made the wrong decision. There are only a few ways to look at this season:

A) Write it off and focus only on player development.

B) Load up and try to make a run.

We're not doing either of those. What we're doing can best be described by:

C) Make marginal improvements all across the team so that if we catch some breaks we can make a run a la the 2008 Rays but not at the cost of the future.

I don't think so. I don't see how you can say that that "best describes it". What we're doing is letting the kids take over, so that (a) they can get better, and (b) AM can see what's what, then adapt as necessary, with the goal being to be way better in 2011. Along the way, we're trying to get noticeably better at getting W's than we were last year. That's the plan, not trying to be the 2008 Rays in 2010. If it happens, then it's a fortuitous unplanned event, but it's not the goal. The goal is to perform better this year while setting the stage for next year.

In this scenario, I see no value in having a stable 1.5 WAR player at 3B, especially one whose question marks are purely negative - i.e. maybe Tejada just can't play third and that's the end of that.

What we should do is embrace risk. Look at it as game theory. (I know this is simplified by a ton, but it's a thought experiment). Say we need 95 "points" to make the playoffs, and 25 "game pieces" that are each worth 3 points. That's only 75 points, and there's no variance, so we won't make the playoffs. Now say we have 25 pieces each worth 1-4 points. The expected value of the team is lower, but now we have a non-zero chance to make the playoffs.

Extend this. Say you have a team of 24 pieces that total up to a range of 85-98 points (a mix of variable and non-variable pieces), and you have two pieces you are considering adding - one worth 2 points and another worth 0-5 points. The math is too complex to do in my head right now since it would involve tallying up a lot of individual probabilities that make up this hypothetical 85-98 team, but I argue (and can easily prove, if you want) that this team gets more value, with value defined as the chance to reach or surpass 95 points ("making the playoffs"), from adding the non-variable 2 point piece than another hypothetical 70-90 point team. I'm sure you'll agree with me. Furthermore, the most important goal of a team whose peak is < 95 is increasing the peak of the team, not the overall expected value.

I'm sure you can see where this argument goes. I think the Orioles are in the 65-85 range, and therefore we should favor upside over reliability. I think Crede's range is 0-3 and Tejada more like 1-2. I KNOW, please, I know it's a very simplified analysis, but I think it makes a point worth considering.

Not sure this is game theory, but let's not worry about that...

I think the bolded parts are wrong, and not by just a little. The value range among the 25 roster spots is way, way bigger than that. Immensely bigger.

I also don't think you can prove anything with this. You can manipulate numbers you made up to come up with answer you want, but I don't think it proves anything about whether AM should have signed Miggi or Crede.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Agreed. I like the signing given what was available.

The Atkins signing still confuses me though. Not sure where Wiggington and Luke Scott fit into all this either.

Now go get Bedard or another starter for insurance and Hendrickson and another bullpen arm.

Rightly or not, AM saw Atkins as a priority and believes that he's going to be a significant piece this season. He said as much in the radio interview last night, that they wanted to jump in right away as soon as Atkins was available.

This wasn't standard procedure for a guy who notoriously waits for the market to settle in. It implies that not only did he want Atkins, but he believed that Atkins would be in demand: therefore he had to act fast.

They obviously believe that Atkins has a good chance to get back to his pre-208 form. I don't like his chances, but that's the logic behind the signing. If AM is right, Atkins will significantly improve this lineup.

[Mackus]

I like the move. I think Tejada is far more likely to be a productive player than any of the other 3B options and I absolutely did not want Wigginton playing there. The added roster flexibility with not needing Andino is nice too.

I don't know exactly where he'll bat, but I don't really care. I don't think the lineup order is terribly important, and I don't buy into the theory that Nick can't hit out of the #3 hole or that he'll be much better from the #2, so I don't mind if Jones or Tejada or Reimold hit there.

[tennOsfan]

As much as we need to focus on player development, there is a benefit to having those young players rubbing shoulders with a guy who has an AL MVP award to his credit. Miggy is a competitor who is a solid role model for the Weiters and Joneses.

I see no reason to disparage this signing.

[Peace21]

As much as we need to focus on player development, there is a benefit to having those young players rubbing shoulders with a guy who has an AL MVP award to his credit. Miggy is a competitor who is a solid role model for the Weiters and Joneses.

I see no reason to disparage this signing.

Who is? It is a great signing.

[Hank Scorpio]

If he can play third base, I would think he'll earn his $6MM this year.

[Tank]

The Orioles have signed 3B/SS Miguel Tejada to a one year contract worth $6 million plus performance incentives.

Grade: C+

The return of Miguel Tejada comes at a bit of a surprise. When he was traded to Houston before the 2008 season for OF Luke Scott, LHP Troy Patton, RHP Matt Albers, RHP Dennis Sarfate, and CI Mike Constanzo the team and the fans seemed to be sick of the shortstop. His range was diminishing, his attitude was bad because he couldn’t deal with the losing, and he stopped running out groundballs. It was revealed after the trade that he had used steroids and was actually two years older than he had reported throughout his career. He had a down year in 2008 with the Astros, batting .283/.314/.415 with 38 doubles, 3 triples, and 13 homeruns. He bounced back in 2009 with a .313/.340/.455 line and led the league in doubles with 46 while hitting 14 homeruns.

The Orioles have signed Tejada to be the everyday third baseman with newly signed Garrett Atkins moving to first base despite the fact that hes never played the position in his MLB career, although he has played it in winter ball and the World Baseball Classic. He has the tools to be a good fielder on the hot corner but its going to take some time for him to adjust. The reason he isn’t seen as a shortstop is because he doesn’t have the range anymore, but he still has sure hands and a strong arm which are tools for a good third baseman. He’ll be used as a stopgap until Josh Bell is deemed ready, so the one year contract makes sense and $6 million is a fair deal – maybe even cheap. Tejada doesn’t have the power that he did from 2000 – 2006, but he still has the ability to hit the ball on a consistent basis and hit it hard. Hes another doubles hitter added to the lineup to go with Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis. Miggy doesn’t walk very much either with his on base percentage greatly dependent on his batting average. His walks have gone down as his power has diminished, hinting that pitchers don’t fear him as much as they used to.

I like the signing in general. It gives us a solid contact hitter to fill the void until Bell arrives and it also gives us some versatility. We don’t need to carry SS Robert Andino and his terrible hitting on the roster anymore because Tejada can move over to shortstop on the days Cesar Izturis needs a rest with Atkins or Ty Wigginton playing third and the other manning first. Its up to Dave Trembley to use this to the teams advantage, but it could provide us the opportunity to keep an extra hitter (Lou Montanez, Rhyne Hughes, etc.) for pinch hitting late in games as opposed to a guy that plays once a week. Spring Training should be interesting to see how Tejada’s glove comes along at his new position. The only thing remaining on Andy MacPhail’s offseason to do list would be picking up a left handed pitcher or two. I think theres a good chance Erik Bedard could be brought back. Mark Hendrickson and Japanese import Hisanori Takahashi are also options.

http://theoriolereport.com/2010/01/23/tejada-returns/

[crissfan172]

Obviously they brought him back because they've been trying to sell some of his old Orioles stuff and nobody wanted it.

[Moose Milligan]

He told me he couldnt see Atkins at first hardly at all. But of course, that was a week ago, BEFORE Tejada signed to play 3b. Now all bets are off. I still think Id like to see Luke give it a try.Then Atkins.

I agree. I can't imagine Luke would be any worse defensively than Atkins. Plus his bat speaks for itself...we'd be a deeper, more formidable lineup with Scott at first.

[weams]

I did not read all the way through this yet so pardon any repetition.

From the Horse's mouth today.

Miggy plays third base.

Nolan is the "Left fielder for the next ten years."

Atkins will play first base.

Izturis is such a defensive advantage at short that third base defense is not a big issue.

Markakis will be HUGE with the new protection in the lineup and they prefer to have a right handed hitter behind him in the lineup.

Pie and Scott will both DH some. Both Andy and Dave prefer a DH who is also a position player.

Bergy says his leg is 100%.

Adam Jones asked Crowley if he can bat fourth.

Kranitz says the best thing that happened to his pitching staff is the consolidated spring training in Sarasota.

David Hernandez is still well thought of.

Datz is in charge of running spring training and keeping track of game situations and the opposition's bench and bullpen. He will make suggestions to the Manager. "My job is to be thinking three innings ahead, with the help of Kranitz."

Mike Cuellar has a sudden major health issue.

Mike Gonzalez is the closer.

Jim Johnson is the eighth inning guy.

Koji is throwing, when he is ready, he will be looked at for the bullpen.

Guthrie told me that he never cares what rotation slot he pitches from. He says he faced more number ones when he was the fifth starter than he did last year as the number one.

Kevin Millwood was shocked to be traded and is excited to be part of something exciting here in Baltimore with all the youthful talent.

Kranitz says Matusz's changeup and Tillman's curve are both exceptional major league pitches which can get major league hitters out in the strike zone.

more later...

[Icterus galbula]

I agree. I can't imagine Luke would be any worse defensively than Atkins. Plus his bat speaks for itself...we'd be a deeper, more formidable lineup with Scott at first.

Aye, and better defensively if it means more Pie in LF, too.

[Icterus galbula]

Good stuff weams.

Two follow up questions:

1) Does Jones' cleanup query mean that Crowley has a lot of say in the lineup or is that just from an approach standpoint?

2)

Nolan is the "Left fielder for the next ten years".

How did the quote about Nolan's LF stranglehold arise?

Pie and Scott will both DH some. Both Andy and Dave prefer a DH who is also a position player.

I'll be disappointed if Pie DHs a bunch of games just because LF is "Reimold's spot."

[weams]

Good stuff weams.

Two follow up questions:

1) Does Jones' cleanup query mean that Crowley has a lot of say in the lineup or is that just from an approach standpoint?

2) How did the quote about Nolan's LF stranglehold arise?

I'll be disappointed if Pie DHs a bunch of games just because LF is "Reimold's spot."

Dave will make up the lineup, but the hitters are definitely in Crowley's lap and he wants them there. I got the distinct impression that Trembley will defer to him regarding how to get the most out of this lineup.

Crowley specifically asked for Tejada.

Crow said what he does is very easy, it just take 40 years to learn how to do it. Crowley is the "Defensive Coordinator" of our offense, he has quite the fan club. The guys were all rushing to get his ear and to talk with him. All the hitters gave him shout outs. He is Oriole royalty at this point.

The Oriole Brass think that Nole is a legitimate, patient, refined power hitter.

He played hurt all year with more intensity than anyone other than Jones on the team.

Pie will get at bats whether he starts, fills in for an injury, DHs or becomes our left handed threat in leverage situations. The addition of Miggi has made our lineup slightly right handed oriented so that Pie will become a valuable asset against right handers especially. They kept talking about applying a team concept this year with less regard to individual statistics.

They are very happy to have the redundancy that they have at this point.