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Dare to ask: can this team compete??


connja

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Somewhere around there if everybody plays to their projected potential at this point, but that will still probably be only good enough for 4th place in the division.

That would still place us at playing a meaningful game in Sep. Unlikely to materialize positively - but meaningful nonetheless.

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Somewhere around there if everybody plays to their projected potential at this point, but that will still probably be only good enough for 4th place in the division.

If we're projected as an 85-win team, then we're possible contenders, and will probably be in at least the wild card race until near the end, at least into September. Any team can win or lose ten more games than they are projected to. It just means we are underdogs. The difference between an 85-win team and a 95-win team is basically a couple of hot steaks or a couple of players having career or break-through seasons. The reality, of course, is that projecting how the O's will do this season is a lesson in futility with so many young, high-potential players. Suffice to say that this year the parts are there, if they execute at their potential. The 800-pound question is whether enough of these high-potential players (and veterans) are ready, in particular the starting pitching.

-Larrytt

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If we're projected as an 85-win team, then we're possible contenders, and will probably be in at least the wild card race until near the end, at least into September. Any team can win or lose ten more games than they are projected to. It just means we are underdogs. The difference between an 85-win team and a 95-win team is basically a couple of hot steaks or a couple of players having career or break-through seasons. The reality, of course, is that projecting how the O's will do this season is a lesson in futility with so many young, high-potential players. Suffice to say that this year the parts are there, if they execute at their potential. The 800-pound question is whether enough of these high-potential players (and veterans) are ready, in particular the starting pitching.

-Larrytt

An 85 win team does not usually luck into being a 95 win team. To go from 85 to 95 wins you need more talent, or your talent to take another leap forward.

We can get a little more from our guys, but for some of them, their projections are likely their ceilings IMO.

85 wins is the max at this point with Tejada's addition.

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An 85 win team does not usually luck into being a 95 win team. To go from 85 to 95 wins you need more talent, or your talent to take another leap forward.

Aren't you just rewriting what I wrote? See part about two players having career or breakthrough seasons, or the part about having two hot streaks (which means the players are playing better, i.e. have taken "another leap forward").

We can get a little more from our guys, but for some of them, their projections are likely their ceilings IMO.

A projection is what is most likely, while their ceilings is the most they can do. Unless you can project *exactly* what a player will do (can't be done), the ceiling is higher than the projection. Or are you just trying to be negative? Regardless, we just don't know how well our younger players will do this year; there are too many young but highly talented players. Sort of like the 2008 Rays, coming off their 66 wins the year before.

85 wins is the max at this point with Tejada's addition.

Ah, absolutes instead of probabilities. A very non-statistical way of thinking. There's a huge difference between saying they are unlikely to win more than 85, and saying they can't win more than 85. I'm sure the 66-win Rays of 2007 were given a "max" for the next year that was somewhat lower than the 97 wins they had in 2008.

The irony is that, for example, a team projected to win 85 that instead wins 95 is immediately thought of as a 95-win team, and therefore retroactive "proof" that an 85-win team can't win 95. The number of teams with promising players that have done far better than "expected" is large, starting with, for example, the Tampa Bay Rays, winners of 66 games in 2007 but loaded with talent, like the O's. The Rays won 97 in 2008, which meant that they were obviously not, say, an 85-win team, though of course few projected them to win 97 in 2008 - though retroactively they were recognized as a 95+ win team. Then, in 2009, they won only 84, so they were obviously (retroactively) roughly an 85-win team, unlike the year before. Etc.

I'm not interested in getting into a huge battle over this against your notorious negativity. But for once try to look at the potential instead of just bad-case scenarios. It's easy to rip into a team that (for example) has only a 25% chance of success, knowing there's a 75% chance of being "right." But most of us would rather cheer for the 25% chance.

-Larrytt

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This team feels like it could accomplish a .500 record. It also feels like the 2009 Mariners, where everything could fall into place and they could compete into September. As optimistic as I am though, I feel like, despite everything, they'll find a way to screw it up.

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A lot would need to go right for us, and a lot wrong for the rest of the AL East, for the Orioles to compete. Still, this is the first season in recent memory where I think it realistically COULD HAPPEN if players develop like most baseballheads think they will. We've got a lot of players legitimately turning into major league ballplayers.

It really comes down to how quickly our prominent prospects develop. The vast majority of the team is viewed as not having reached their potential yet, and still young enough and with the skills to make it happen. Those surprise teams happen when a bunch of guys reach or surpass that potential(or come close) all at the same time. We've got enough legitimately talented young guys penciled into key spots, or competing for them, that this COULD HAPPEN. Markakis and Jones are both young and talented enough that they could develop into that upper-echelon team leader we've needed at the heart of the organization. You could say the same thing about Wieters, or Tillman, or Matusz. If they all clicked at the same time, or close to it, the Orioles would suddenly go from being a rebuilding team to a legitimate, possible contender.

So yeah, I think they definitely could compete. I'd be crazy to say they CAN compete until I start seeing those player primes getting reached. You can somewhat accurately predict how much potential a player has, but you can never predict when they'll reach it. That factor is really at the heart of the questions surrounding this team.

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I am going to try to crunch a few numbers today, but I think this team is right at .500 and maybe a little better if a few things go right. Those first 60 games (27 against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa) will tell us how competitive we'll be. If the team is anywhere close to .500 after those 60, we have a good chance to head into September with a winning record.

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I am going to try to crunch a few numbers today, but I think this team is right at .500 and maybe a little better if a few things go right. Those first 60 games (27 against the Yankees, Red Sox and Tampa) will tell us how competitive we'll be. If the team is anywhere close to .500 after those 60, we have a good chance to head into September with a winning record.

They must come out of ST with intensity. The big teams know it's a marathon, the O's can't have the marathon mentality. If they come out of the 27 game stretch at better than 12-15, there is hope. But, it's all about pitching...and that is true of the Yanks, Sox and Rays.

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Somewhere around there if everybody plays to their projected potential at this point, but that will still probably be only good enough for 4th place in the division.

If the O's, Sox, and Yanks win 85+ games there is no way the Rays do as well.

Their offseason moves have consisted of picking up Shoppach and Soriano. I Don't think the Rays are guaranteed 85 wins even if the O's don't finish over 500.

Considering that this is the last year their window is looking to be open I expected more action out of the Rays this offseason.

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I'd say closer to third, but yeah, I basically agree. On the other hand, if there are four 80 some win teams in the AL East, then there's no way the winner would win 100 games.

This is what people seem to forget. If the Orioles win 85 games that means they are winning games against the Yankees and Red Sox. If the AL East has four 500+ teams in it that means it isn't likely that any team is approaching 95-100 wins.

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