Dare to ask: can this team compete??

[SilentJames]

To answer the original question - probably not. But over .500 is realistic.

[berto]

I think this team can be very exciting. I thnk they cant definetly be a .500 team or above and they may be able to play some meaningful games in September. I think everything hinges on how the rotation does.

[LookinUp]

I like that so many early season games are in-division. It's the best time of year to get the Yankees in particular.

[Dipper9]

Maybe its just the hoopla of listening to the players talk at FanFest, and the signing of Tejada, but I came away STOKED for the 2010 season. I think a above .500 record and third place finish are possible. Now, Trea and the WNST guys will say this is a really low goal and I have been brainwashed by the Orioles PR. Fair assessment. But when you have gone through 12 straight losing seasons, I'll take a winning record and a third place finish this year and be VERY happy with our outlook heading into 2011.

[LookinUp]

Maybe its just the hoopla of listening to the players talk at FanFest, and the signing of Tejada, but I came away STOKED for the 2010 season. I think a above .500 record and third place finish are possible. Now, Trea and the WNST guys will say this is a really low goal and I have been brainwashed by the Orioles PR. Fair assessment. But when you have gone through 12 straight losing seasons, I'll take a winning record and a third place finish this year and be VERY happy with our outlook heading into 2011.

You shouldn't listen to Trea or WNST. Neither are objective.

It's ok to be optimistic and still take a "show me" position. I'll believe we're good when I see it, but there's a lot to hope for this year.

[bluedog]

As far as the pitching will take us...

It is all about the pitching, It is always about the pitching, did I mention...It's the pitching?

Exactly right. Our offense and defense should easily be sufficient to carry us to a winning record and the playoffs. It's the pitching that's going to be the question.

I'd love it if we pick up Bedard for depth in the rotation. Between he, Guthrie and Millwood we'd have three starters who have proven themselves capable of pitching to a 3.60 ERA over a full season. Add Matusz and Bergesen to that mix and there would be the potential for the O's starting rotation to post a sub 4.00 ERA.

To me the bigger question is the bullpen. The addition of Gonzalez and Uehara alongside JJ and the emergence of Mickolio last year gives us a shot at having a very strong group for closing out games.

IF the pitching performs as expected, this team will be vastly improved over last year's group.

[chamdog]

Let's finish above .500 and go from there that would be a giant leap.Playoffs are still possible if boston loses half there rotation all never mind I forgot about Seattle we have no chance.

[theobird]

This is the toughest question, because the Orioles have the talent and depth now. When it all comes together, it will happen over night. I could see us below .500 for the season and if it all comes together for our young talent, particularly the Pitchers, we could jump to the head of the class. I doubt the incremental improvement club, when it comes together it will come on very quickly.

[Dr. Andrews]

It's all about the pitching...just think, last year our OD rotation consisted of: Guthrie, Koji, Simon, Hendrickson, and Eaton...it made my stomach turn just typing that...we should have a much improved rotation this year, our bullpen is very solid, we have a decent bench, and Tejada gives us a somewhat formidable lineup...I'd say we have a chance, but the skeptic in me hasn't seen a winning team since I was 10 years old so, I'll believe it when I see it.

[crowmst3k!]

One of the biggest pluses this year is so many games against NYY early in the season. They are notoriously slow starters. Hopefully the O's can take a few series that on paper they would not have taken.

The Orioles NEED to improve against Boston. Boston had the Orioles number most of last year.

Oh, and if the Orioles finish above .500, it will be huge for the organization. Huge.

[connja]

I'll take 85 wins in 2010. I'd be ecstatic with that. What a thing to build on.

85 wins gets us some meaningful games in sept, even if we have to win them all!

[Old#5fan]

If they sign Bedard I say they will likely overtake Toronto for fourth place in the division this season and perhaps by next year be a contender for 500 ball. (Albeit that is being extremely optimistic.

[scottbbfm]

If they sign Bedard I say they will likely overtake Toronto for fourth place in the division this season and perhaps by next year be a contender for 500 ball(Albeit that is being extremely optimistic..

wow. Just wow.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'd say closer to third, but yeah, I basically agree. On the other hand, if there are four 80 some win teams in the AL East, then there's no way the winner would win 100 games.

If the O's, Sox, and Yanks win 85+ games there is no way the Rays do as well.

Their offseason moves have consisted of picking up Shoppach and Soriano. I Don't think the Rays are guaranteed 85 wins even if the O's don't finish over 500.

Considering that this is the last year their window is looking to be open I expected more action out of the Rays this offseason.

This is what people seem to forget. If the Orioles win 85 games that means they are winning games against the Yankees and Red Sox. If the AL East has four 500+ teams in it that means it isn't likely that any team is approaching 95-100 wins.

Mathematically, it's possible to have four 130-game winners in one division. While I don't think it's likely the AL East will have multiple 100-game winners, I wouldn't completely discount it. And I think that it is within reason that the East could have four teams with 85+ wins.

Competitive balance is on the decline, and there are no structrual or rules-based reasons that the top four teams in baseball couldn't be from the same division.

Don't rule out stuff just because it's never happened before.

An 85 win team does not usually luck into being a 95 win team. To go from 85 to 95 wins you need more talent, or your talent to take another leap forward.

There's a good argument that the 2008 Rays were an 88-win team that used luck and leverage to win 97. No, that doesn't happen every day to an 85-win team, but just by standard distribution of teams you'd expect one team to over- or undershoot their true talent by a dozen or more games every year.

We can get a little more from our guys, but for some of them, their projections are likely their ceilings IMO.

By definition a player's projection is that system's mid-range estimate. Maybe you think there are players whom most/all projection systems are biased in favor of, but I think it's more likely that your definition of ceiling is different from most everyone else's.

[TonySoprano]

Maybe its just the hoopla of listening to the players talk at FanFest, and the signing of Tejada, but I came away STOKED for the 2010 season. I think a above .500 record and third place finish are possible. Now, Trea and the WNST guys will say this is a really low goal and I have been brainwashed by the Orioles PR. Fair assessment. But when you have gone through 12 straight losing seasons, I'll take a winning record and a third place finish this year and be VERY happy with our outlook heading into 2011.

You came away brainwashed by fanfest, maybe Fourth-place, O.K. Third????

Once again, the term compete is used to start a discussion but it has many definitions here. To me, it means being in the playoff hunt until late in the year. That's not happening in 2010.

On paper, this team should be better than last year's. Obviously, the key will be how the second-year guys fare, Reimold, Wieters, Tillman, Matusz....