Dare to ask: can this team compete??

[DrungoHazewood]

Someone mentioned Tejada's transition to third is a story for the summer. Lets say around June/July Miggy is batting to his usual good numbers, but is NOT adjusting well in the field. Do we bring up Snyder or Bell and shift Miggy to shortstop?

What's "not adjusting well"? Last year Tejada had a UZR/150 of -12 at SS. Izturis was +14. Shifting Tejada back to short you'd have to assume at least 20 runs/150 games just get added on to the O's pitcher's totals. If Tejada puts up a .750-.775 OPS I don't think he's a better shortstop than Izturis at .625.

Tejada would have to be a Ryan Braun kind of butcher at third to justify that unless Snyder and/or Bell are really forcing the issue with great performance(s) at Norfolk.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hey, I'm an optimist. I'm a realist too. The question is 'can this team compete'. Is it okay with you, Dipper, if I answer? Would that be OK? Oh, that's right, I don't need your permission. Duh. So my answer is 'no', this team can't complete.

Why all the definitive statements around here? Life is a bunch of probability distribution curves. The center of the 2010 O's is probably 78 wins, but the tail is somewhere around fringy contention.

[McLovin]

Sorry...I don't see where I said you couldn't answer. I could say your same quote for your answer to my post!

You replied to me "but how about a little optimism amongst O's fans for a change?". Sorry, you don't get to pick my answer to the thread's question.

[McLovin]

For fairness the above should be pointed out. It's not like they are throwing 5 HOF pitchers at you.

Well, that's one way to make yourself feel better I suppose. "Hey, they are not all HOF pitchers!"

[larrytt]

Anytime anyone fancies the O's as contenders, consider this:

CC Sabathia

A.J. Burnett

Javier Vazquez

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte

and

Josh Beckett

John Lackey

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Wakefield

Those are nice starting staffs. Yet only two of the Yankee starters were under 4.00 last year; Chamberlain was at 4.75. Pettitte is about to turn 38, Burnett is 33. And Vazquez's 2.87 at age 34 seems an aberration when you consider his ERA's of the previous five years were 4.91, 4.42, 4.84, 3.74. 4.67. Assuming Vazquez reverts to form (and probably the aging Pettitte back to his 4.54 of the previous year), they have a good, but not great starting staff.

For the Red Sox, Matsuzaka and Wakefield had ERA's last year of 5.76 and 4.58, not exactly stellar. Wakefield's 43. Becket, Lackey and Lester look scary, but the odds are at least one will not have another stellar year. Remember that Lackey's 3.83 was in the AL West, not the AL East, so you might have to add something to that.

Here's a listing of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles pitching. We often see the best in other teams, and the worst in ours. It's easy to find what could go wrong, but things could also go *right*. Let's hope Millwood and Bergesen pitch like they did last year, Guthrie like he did in 2007-2008, and that Matusz and Tillman play close to their potential. *If* we get 4 of these 5, we have a very nice starting staff that can compete with anyone. Even 3 out of 5, with the other two doing descent, could make us contenders.

YANKEES

CC Sabathia - 3.37 (age 30)

A.J. Burnett - 4.04 (age 33, was 4.54 previous year)

Javier Vazquez - 2.87 (previous five years: 4.91, 4.42, 4.84, 3.74. 4.67, and he's about to turn 35)

Joba Chamberlain - 4.75

Andy Pettitte - 4.16 (about to turn 38)

RED SOX

Josh Beckett - 3.86 (about to turn 30)

John Lackey - 3.83 (but in the AL West, not the more offense-minded AL East, so add something to that)

Jon Lester - 3.41

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5.76

Tim Wakefield - 4.58 (age 43)

ORIOLES

Millwood - 3.67 (age 35; odds are he'll be back to over 4.0 this year, but could still do pretty well)

Bergesen - 3.41 (19 starts)

Guthrie - 5.04 after missing most of spring training last year, but 3.70 and 3.63 previous two years. (age 30)

Matusz - anything's possible

Tillman - anything's possible

-Larrytt

[McLovin]

larrytt - I get what you're saying, there are just too many "ifs" on both sides. Yes, anything can happen. Yes, I am hopeful for the future. No, I don't think it will happen this year.

Also, Lackey played in the AL last year.

[larrytt]

Also, Lackey played in the AL last year.

You're right, that was careless; he played for LA, but it was the Angels, not the Dodgers. Fixed. The AL West is still a weaker division than the AL East, but stronger than the no-DH NL.

-Larrytt

[ShaneDawg85]

The same as it ever was: Pitching. If the Orioles are going to improve it is going to be because of the pitching. If that doesn't happen then you can pretty much expect the same results. Unless Markakis, Wieters, Jones, & Reimold all go nuts and hit 30 home runs each.

[Stotle]

Anytime anyone fancies the O's as contenders, consider this:

CC Sabathia

A.J. Burnett

Javier Vazquez

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte

and

Josh Beckett

John Lackey

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Wakefield

You should have Buchholz in the Red Sox rotation. He's better than both Matsuzaka and Wakefield. That rotation could be scary good.

[LookinUp]

larrytt - I get what you're saying, there are just too many "ifs" on both sides. Yes, anything can happen. Yes, I am hopeful for the future. No, I don't think it will happen this year.

Also, Lackey played in the AL last year.

You're right. Every year for the past 13, the O's have been filled with if's. If Loewen can have control; if Riley or Penn can establish themselves; if Chris Richard can hit; if Alfredo Simon can turn one masterful performance into who he is...etc.

The biggest difference between this team and those teams is the fact that we can reasonably expect that many of our if's actually become above average players this year. We have some big if's, but many possibilities...

If these guys all hit 25+ hr's:

Wieters, Jones, Reimold, Scott (most doubtful, of course)

If these guys all hit .300 with 35+ doubles

Roberts, Markakis, Tejada

If Izturis is still a +14 in the field. If Atkins rebounds, or Snyder gets the job.

If these guys are the veteran presence innings eaters with good ~4.2 ERAs

Millwood, Guthrie

If these two solidify themselves as #2/3 type starters

Matusz, Bergesen

If Tillman throws strikes

If the bullpen becomes light's out

Gonzalez, JJ, Uehara, Hernandez, Mickolio, Hendrickson, Arrieta?, Erbe?

Many of these if's could actually happen. If so, we can compete with anyone.

[RShack]

Anytime anyone fancies the O's as contenders, consider this:

CC Sabathia

A.J. Burnett

Javier Vazquez

Joba Chamberlain

Andy Pettitte

and

Josh Beckett

John Lackey

Jon Lester

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Tim Wakefield

For the MFY's, the impact depends on which version of Vazquez they get. Lately, he's been having seasons that alternate between pitching like a #4 SP and a #1 SP. Last year, he pitched like a #1 SP, which is something he has never done 2 years in a row. His pattern is to alternate good seasons and lousy seasons. He delivered like a #4 SP in '04, '06, and '08. Maybe that's a fluke, beats me. It if continues in '10, and if we substitute him for the <#5 drek who had 32 GS last year, and if their other guys do the same as last year, then they will have improved their overall SP from a low-to-middling #4 SP to a low-to-middling #3 SP. That's a non-trivial improvement, but it's not exactly like the '71 O's. In fact, it's not even close to the '97 O's, and they weren't even close to the '71 O's.

As for Boston, if we assume that Lackey gets the same results he did last year (which in Fenway is iffy), and we substitute him for the drek they had pitching 27 GS last year, then they will have improved their overall SP from a high-ish #4 SP to a high-ish #3 SP. Again, an improvement but not exactly one to have anybody quaking in their boots.

The reality of today's SP is that if your overall SP totals a performance like a #3 SP, then you're at or near the top of the heap. Do the O's have a ways to go before their SP gets to the top of the SP-mountain? Sure, you bet. But the top of that mountain isn't nearly as high as a lot of people seem to think it is. The O's have to improve their overall SP from the level of a weak #5 SP to a middling #3 SP to be right there with them, and that's assuming that both BOS and the MFY's gets way better. Last year, everybody in the AL East had overall SP like a #4, except the O's who were just barely as good as a #5. If the O's SP improves to perform like a strong #3 SP, then it would likely be the best in the AL East even if the others get better.

Which says nothing about the bats, but let's face it, BOS no longer has the "Ortiz and Manny Show" either. I bet their RS goes down and ours goes up. Not saying we'll match them, I don't think we will, but it's not like they're gonna stay a mile in front of us either. People say they're getting better, but I think we're getting better faster then they are. We're closing the gap, it's just a question of by how much.

[larrytt]

You should have Buchholz in the Red Sox rotation. He's better than both Matsuzaka and Wakefield. That rotation could be scary good.

Buchholz would be a likely improvement over one of them, though that much over Wakefield (yet). He only played in 16 games last year (all starts) and had a 4.21 ERA. Previous year he also played in 16 games (15 starts) with a 6.75 ERA. Hard to say what he might do this year. Let's hope for 6.75!

-Larrytt

[LookinUp]

I think this is Boston's year. That staff, and bullpen, can be scary good.

They Yankees are still too dependent on Sabathia. He could carry them to another title for sure, but those other guys are all question marks, IMO. Chamberlain, in particular, seems much better suited for the bullpen.

[Frobby]

The same as it ever was: Pitching. If the Orioles are going to improve it is going to be because of the pitching. If that doesn't happen then you can pretty much expect the same results. Unless Markakis, Wieters, Jones, & Reimold all go nuts and hit 30 home runs each.

I never understand why people make this "either/or" argument. The Orioles were below average in both hitting and pitching last year, and almost every other year of the last 12. They need to improve in both areas. We scored 741 runs last year -- are you aware of many AL teams who have gone to the playoffs while scoring 741 runs in recent years? So far as I know, the 2005 White Sox are the only team since 1990 to make the playoffs scoring that few runs. So, it's obvious that the offense needs to improve considerably for this team to be a playoff threat.

Of course, nobody can disagree that the pitching needs to improve by leaps and bounds for this team to go anyplace, either. But to say that if the team improves, it will be (solely) due to the pitching is just wrong.

[Old#5fan]

I never understand why people make this "either/or" argument. The Orioles were below average in both hitting and pitching last year, and almost every other year of the last 12. They need to improve in both areas. We scored 741 runs last year -- are you aware of many AL teams who have gone to the playoffs while scoring 741 runs in recent years? So far as I know, the 2005 White Sox are the only team since 1990 to make the playoffs scoring that few runs. So, it's obvious that the offense needs to improve considerably for this team to be a playoff threat.

Of course, nobody can disagree that the pitching needs to improve by leaps and bounds for this team to go anyplace, either. But to say that if the team improves, it will be (solely) due to the pitching is just wrong.

I agree totally. We have essentially merely replaced Huff and Mora in last years lineup with Atkins and Tejada. As such, it sure seems to me that barring some kind of unforseen spectacular spike in the younger players offense this team is going to be unchanged much offensively which means still non-competitive in the AL East where every other team save maybe Toronto has a much more potent attack.