Dare to ask: can this team compete??

[LookinUp]

I agree totally. We have essentially merely replaced Huff and Mora in last years lineup with Atkins and Tejada. As such, it sure seems to me that barring some kind of unforseen spectacular spike in the younger players offense this team is going to be unchanged much offensively which means still non-competitive in the AL East where every other team save maybe Toronto has a much more potent attack.

We have many reasons to expect improved offense from 1b, 3b, c, rf, cf and lf this year. DH, 2b and ss should be relatively steady. Even w/o major spikes, we should score more runs.

[Old#5fan]

We have many reasons to expect improved offense from 1b, 3b, c, rf, cf and lf this year. DH, 2b and ss should be relatively steady. Even w/o major spikes, we should score more runs.

I just don't see it. This team still sorely lacks the long ball power bat it needs and which hurts them against their division teams that have the routine ability to change the game for good with just one swing.

[atom_25]

Every year I think most teams 'can compete' if things break right, but the teams that usually compete are the ones that rely on the most talent, get some breaks, and do not rely on the Alfredo Simon's of the world to win 20 games in order to be competitive. This years team is the closest that has been in Baltimore in over a decade to a winning/ competitive team. Will they compete this year? Maybe, maybe not. I think most including me are excited and will be watching.

All that said, I think the O's wind up somewhere around .500 this year. It is all about the pitching in the end and with our young rotation I think it will be an up and down season as far as wins and losses. They should be one of the most fun dynamic teams in the majors and should be 2011's 'sleeper team', the team that all the pundits are picking to make waves.

What gives me hope that this team will exceed my reasonable expectations this year is the mental makeup of the young guys: Wieters, Matusz, Bergy, etc. These guys are winners and have the mental makeup that you want. To me that is just as much if not more impressive than their talent. They impressed me and have me excited to see some of that potential and moxy that previous teams have lacked.

[primetime]

I agree totally. We have essentially merely replaced Huff and Mora in last years lineup with Atkins and Tejada. As such, it sure seems to me that barring some kind of unforseen spectacular spike in the younger players offense this team is going to be unchanged much offensively which means still non-competitive in the AL East where every other team save maybe Toronto has a much more potent attack.

This is EXACTLY what we're counting on. It doesn't have to be an unforseen spike, just progression.

If we get a full season from Reimold, Wieters and Jones, a bounce back year from Markakis and continued production from BRob and Miggy (which really aren't as many "ifs" as it seems) I think we could score 800 runs. Combine that with career norms from Guts and Millwood, continued progression from Matusz, Bergy and Tillman, we could play meaningful games after the ASB.

I don't think any of this is unrealistic. All I want is to be excited for the result of an O's game after the ASB. Not to just be excited about a particular player or starter but to REALLY care whether we win or lose a game in August. How nice would that be?

[EL_Coyote]

Those are nice starting staffs. Yet only two of the Yankee starters were under 4.00 last year; Chamberlain was at 4.75. Pettitte is about to turn 38, Burnett is 33. And Vazquez's 2.87 at age 34 seems an aberration when you consider his ERA's of the previous five years were 4.91, 4.42, 4.84, 3.74. 4.67. Assuming Vazquez reverts to form (and probably the aging Pettitte back to his 4.54 of the previous year), they have a good, but not great starting staff.

For the Red Sox, Matsuzaka and Wakefield had ERA's last year of 5.76 and 4.58, not exactly stellar. Wakefield's 43. Becket, Lackey and Lester look scary, but the odds are at least one will not have another stellar year. Remember that Lackey's 3.83 was in the AL West, not the AL East, so you might have to add something to that.

Here's a listing of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Orioles pitching. We often see the best in other teams, and the worst in ours. It's easy to find what could go wrong, but things could also go *right*. Let's hope Millwood and Bergesen pitch like they did last year, Guthrie like he did in 2007-2008, and that Matusz and Tillman play close to their potential. *If* we get 4 of these 5, we have a very nice starting staff that can compete with anyone. Even 3 out of 5, with the other two doing descent, could make us contenders.

YANKEES

CC Sabathia - 3.37 (age 30)

A.J. Burnett - 4.04 (age 33, was 4.54 previous year)

Javier Vazquez - 2.87 (previous five years: 4.91, 4.42, 4.84, 3.74. 4.67, and he's about to turn 35)

Joba Chamberlain - 4.75

Andy Pettitte - 4.16 (about to turn 38)

RED SOX

Josh Beckett - 3.86 (about to turn 30)

John Lackey - 3.83 (but in the AL West, not the more offense-minded AL East, so add something to that)

Jon Lester - 3.41

Daisuke Matsuzaka - 5.76

Tim Wakefield - 4.58 (age 43)

ORIOLES

Millwood - 3.67 (age 35; odds are he'll be back to over 4.0 this year, but could still do pretty well)

Bergesen - 3.41 (19 starts)

Guthrie - 5.04 after missing most of spring training last year, but 3.70 and 3.63 previous two years. (age 30)

Matusz - anything's possible

Tillman - anything's possible

-Larrytt

What he said!!!!

This Oriole team has a lot more offensive potential than 2009 did. Also it isn't just Bergesen, Matusz and Tillman that we get a longer look at. David Hernandez is probably not done as a starter just yet. Remember before tiring late in the season he was giving the team it's best chance to win once Brad Bergesen got hurt. Late in the season Jake Arrieta will likely make a debut.

The schedule looks rough at the start and at the end. However at some point the young pitching must produce. It's way too early to just let the other teams have it.

With the team signing Tejada I expect them to push for a wild card. How realistic is that? Hard to say but this team could certainly push one of the three teams favored to lead the division out of it. I suspect we win 85 games this year. If the pitching gets hot... maybe a few more.

[LookinUp]

I just don't see it. This team still sorely lacks the long ball power bat it needs and which hurts them against their division teams that have the routine ability to change the game for good with just one swing.

Which of these won't happen?

25+ HRs - Jones, Reimold, Wieters

20 HRs - Markakis, Scott

15 HRs - Tejada, Atkins

10+ - Roberts

Last year we were right in the middle of the league with 160 HRs. With improvement expected from several positions, it's definitely not out of the question that we could be top 10. Granted, the Yankees, Boston and Tampa were all in the top 6 last year.

[Stotle]

Buchholz would be a likely improvement over one of them, though that much over Wakefield (yet). He only played in 16 games last year (all starts) and had a 4.21 ERA. Previous year he also played in 16 games (15 starts) with a 6.75 ERA. Hard to say what he might do this year. Let's hope for 6.75!

-Larrytt

I think we need to do better than measuring value by ERA. There are many better stats out there to measure a pitcher's performance. That said, I concur that Buchholz's stats may not blow you away, but he's clearly poised to do some dirty things -- and certainly compares favorably to any young arm BAL is running out there this year (which is not a knock at BAL, as I love their young arms).

Also, take a look at what Buchholz did once he got straightened out at AAA last year:

                                                                                                                   Year   Lev W L W-L%  ERA  G GS GF CG SHO SV   IP  H  R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP  BF  WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB2009   AAA 7 2 .778 2.36 17 16  0  1   1  0 99.0 67 30 26  7 30   0 89   0  1  4 387 0.980 6.1  0.6  2.7  8.1  2.97

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 1/25/2010.

[primetime]

I just don't see it. This team still sorely lacks the long ball power bat it needs and which hurts them against their division teams that have the routine ability to change the game for good with just one swing.

Who was the long ball power bat the 93 win Red Sox had last year? Jason Bay at 36 HRs. Sorry but Jason Bay isn't the kind of guy that "strikes fear" into the opposition. It's all about run creation vs. run prevention, how you get there is irrelevant.

Would it be nice to have Cal and Eddie hitting 3-4? Of course it would. Would it be nice to run Palmer-Cuellar-McNally out there in 3 game series? Yeah, sure. To quote Rick Pitino, "Those guys ain't walking through that door."

What we have is the potential for a very balanced 1-9, with a nice mix of solid vets and emerging young talent, the makings of a good bench, a solid rotation with a combo of vets that have been there, done that and some 2nd year guys on the rise. Throw into that the makings of good, balanced bullpen.

There are a lot of different ways to build a team. Don't misunderstand me, I'm cautiously optimistic but in no way declaring us AL East champs.

[Old#5fan]

Which of these won't happen?

25+ HRs - Jones, Reimold, Wieters

20 HRs - Markakis, Scott

15 HRs - Tejada, Atkins

10+ - Roberts

Last year we were right in the middle of the league with 160 HRs. With improvement expected from several positions, it's definitely not out of the question that we could be top 10. Granted, the Yankees, Boston and Tampa were all in the top 6 last year.

I say this team has zero thirty homer guys, and maybe one (two at the most) 25 homer guys. I say maybe one guy with 100 rbi's or more. I don't see either Tejada or Atkins hitting 15 homers. Tejada might hit 12. Atkins will likely be benched before the AS game for lack of hitting. He is really going to struggle against the top pitching in the AL East division. I think there is a better chance that Pie or even Wigginton hit 15 homers than Atkins.

[TonySoprano]

The AL West is still a weaker division than the AL East, but stronger than the no-DH NL.

-Larrytt

Tell that to the Orioles

2000-09	W	L	PBOS	64	114	0.360NYY	62	116	0.348TBR	94	86	0.522TOR	77	104	0.425TOTL	297	420	0.414

2000-09	W	L	PLAA	37	56	0.398OAK	23	58	0.284SEA	45	49	0.479TEX	43	51	0.457TOTL	148	214	0.409

[srock]

I say this team has zero thirty homer guys, and maybe one (two at the most) 25 homer guys. I say maybe one guy with 100 rbi's or more. I don't see either Tejada or Atkins hitting 15 homers. Tejada might hit 12. Atkins will likely be benched before the AL game for lack of hitting. He is really going to struggle against the top pitching in the AL East division. I think there is a better chance that Pie or even Wigginton hit 15 homers than Atkins.

I agree, but I think there is a pretty good chance Pie or Wigginton hits 15 this year and a decense change Atkins as well.

Wieters and Reimold could both be 30 homer guys.

Also, 1 RBI player seems very unlikely. I got Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold and maybe even Tejada knocking in 100. I'm sure at least one of these names won't see enough playing time due to injury, but they should each be in the 100 RBI chase.

I'm not saying your projections are wildly incorrect either. In fact, they are well within the realm of possibility. However, they are on the left side of the bell curve.

[LookinUp]

I agree, but I think there is a pretty good chance Pie or Wigginton hits 15 this year and a decense change Atkins as well.

Wieters and Reimold could both be 30 homer guys.

Also, 1 RBI player seems very unlikely. I got Markakis, Jones, Wieters, Reimold and maybe even Tejada knocking in 100. I'm sure at least one of these names won't see enough playing time due to injury, but they should each be in the 100 RBI chase.

I'm not saying your projections are wildly incorrect either. In fact, they are well within the realm of possibility. However, they are on the left side of the bell curve.

What he said...

[tennOsfan]

I doubt we "compete," but I think we'll be relevant for most of the season. That's an improvement in itself. How relevant we are will depend on the progression of the young pitchers and hitters.

One thing I like about this team is that we have decent backups at many positions in case of injury. Pie and Wigginton are very valuable pieces in that respect, since you know someone along the line will go down.

Should Reimold, Jones and Wieters combine for 80 home runs and the rotation show marked improvement, who knows? We might compete. If we have Uehara and DHernandez in the pen doing as well as I think they can, and if the rotation is logging quality innings along the way, this team might be relevant enough to merit some buying at the trade deadline instead of the other way around.

[Frobby]

I just don't see it. This team still sorely lacks the long ball power bat it needs and which hurts them against their division teams that have the routine ability to change the game for good with just one swing.

I will be surprised if we don't score 40-80 more runs than last year. I do wish we had a genuine long ball threat, but we do have quite a few guys capable of 20+ HR. I do expect the younger players to improve, and Tejada will be a big improvement over Mora, who had a grand total of 28 extra base hits last year. Atkins, I just don't know what to expect. However, he'll either hit better, or he'll be riding the pine after a couple of months.

[RShack]

I think we need to do better than measuring value by ERA. There are many better stats out there to measure a pitcher's performance.

I agree with that. Everybody says "don't go by ERA", but then they do it anyway.

The questions is "what's better?" I don't think peripherals are it. Measuring performance is about quantifying what actually happened, and so far I think combining ERA+ with how many outs they get per GS is the best shorthand way for SP's, since those get at the 2 main parts of their job. I've been looking at it, both over years and across teams, and I really think the OTE+ metric is right for this purpose... or at least is more-right than anything else I know of. It's way better than ERA in at least 2 important ways.

This is just about summarizing how individual SP's and team-SP'ing actually did. It's not about how they should have done, or explaining why they did what they did, or predicting how they will do in the future. It's just about how well they did, regardless of why, and it provides both good strata and meaningful shorthand labels for useful comparison. It's a snapshot that is both less biased and way more complete than is ERA.