MacPhail: Miggy won't play any SS

[Mackus]

You understand that the other parts in WAR that I am not including are based on playing time. (Izturis freak injury hurts his WAR)

I know it was a freak injury, but Izzy gets a new freak injury almost every year. He's not durable, and shouldn't be given credit for being able to be a more valuable player if he was healthy because he never seems to stay healthy.

Staying healthy is a skill.

[RShack]

I know it was a freak injury, but Izzy gets a new freak injury almost every year. He's not durable, and shouldn't be given credit for being able to be a more valuable player if he was healthy because he never seems to stay healthy.

Staying healthy is a skill.

What was Izzy's freak injury last year? The one he didn't have the skill to avoid?

[Mackus]

What was Izzy's freak injury last year? The one he didn't have the skill to avoid?

Appendicitis

[RShack]

I know it was a freak injury, but...

Staying healthy is a skill.

What was Izzy's freak injury last year? The one he didn't have the skill to avoid?

Appendicitis

How is it a skill to not get appendicitis?

[Sports Guy]

Izzy hasn't played more than 150 games since 2004..I would say it is extremely reasonable to question his durability.

[Mackus]

How is it a skill to not get appendicitis?

When did I say not getting appendicitis was a skill?

I said staying healthy is a skill. Its something that some players can do and others don't as well.

Izturis has averaged about 105 games a year the past 5 years. About 120 over the past 3. Its because he keeps getting hurt with various injuries. Tejada has averaged about 155 games per year over the past 5 years, about 150 over the past 3. Miggy stays healthy, Izturis doesn't.

Its not fair to say, "Well Miggy was worth 3 wins and Izturis was worth 2, but Izturis only played 120 games compared to Miggy's 160, so extrapolate that out and he's then worth almost the same as Tejada." Its not a reasonable extrapolation because there is no reason to expect Izturis to be able to stay healthy enough to play 160 games.

I'm not saying Izturis should be doing anything differently to try and stay healthy, just that its not all random chance who gets injured or an illness in any given year. Some guys tend to miss time, others tend to avoid those things.

Between Adam Jones and Nick Markakis, which do you think is more likely to have the most games played in 2010? How about the next 3 years? 5?

[TonySoprano]

Name another team who's starting 3B actually can play a decent SS.

C'mon. Everyone knows the Yankees best shortstop plays third base instead.

[Frobby]

Looking at Izturis history, what makes you think that Izturis will stay healthy all year?

I don't have an opinon, one way or the other, as to whether Izturis will stay healthy all year. He is probably more likely than the average player to miss some time. However, I think it is funny how people will dismiss a player's performance over a couple of hundred at bats as meaningless due to sample size, but will infer from the fact that a player has been injured 3 times in 4 years that the player is "injury prone." To me, the fact that Izzy had surgery on his arm several years ago that caused him to miss parts of two seasons has nothing to do with the fact that he had appendicitis last year. People are already tagging Jones with the injury prone label just because he had injuries in two consecutive years. Sometimes, random stuff just happens to a guy who is no more prone to injury than anyone else.

[RShack]

I don't have an opinon, one way or the other, as to whether Izturis will stay healthy all year. He is probably more likely than the average player to miss some time. However, I think it is funny how people will dismiss a player's performance over a couple of hundred at bats as meaningless due to sample size, but will infer from the fact that a player has been injured 3 times in 4 years that the player is "injury prone." To me, the fact that Izzy had surgery on his arm several years ago that caused him to miss parts of two seasons has nothing to do with the fact that he had appendicitis last year. People are already tagging Jones with the injury prone label just because he had injuries in two consecutive years. Sometimes, random stuff just happens to a guy who is no more prone to injury than anyone else.

Is this right? (I really don't know)

When people say that he is "injury prone" during the last 3-of-4 years, are they referring to 1 injury and 1 illness... over 4 years?

[Mackus]

Is this right? (I really don't know)

When people say that he is "injury prone" during the last 3-of-4 years, are they referring to 1 injury and 1 illness... over 4 years?

Yeah, one injury over 4 years is why I think he's not likely to play 162 games in 2010.

46

135

158

159

106

54

110

135

114

Maybe you can look at those and see a guy who is likely to play almost every game, but I sure don't.

[RShack]

Yeah, one injury over 4 years is why I think he's not likely to play 162 games in 2010.

46

135

158

159

106

54

110

135

114

Maybe you can look at those and see a guy who is likely to play almost every game, but I sure don't.

That's just repeating yourself, it's not answering the question....

[Mackus]

That's just repeating yourself, it's not answering the question....

Take any two years you want out of there and he's still not a very reliable guy, especially over the last 3 years when there haven't been any of his problems with his arm surgery.

His surgery was at the end of 2005, so it effected in him really only in 2006 (he missed the last 6 weeks of 2005 with it). His last 3 years have been completely free of that injury and he's still only averaged about 120 games. He's not an incredibly healthy guy in terms of staying on the field.

[Mackus]

Stretches of games Izzy has missed:

Jun 30 - Jul 15 2005

Aug 22 2005 - Jun 20 2006 (TJ surgery)

Aug 22 2006 - Sep 10 2006

Sep 16 2006 - Oct 1 2006

Jun 21 2008 - Jul 5 2008

Jun 4 2009 - Jul 10 2009

2007 was the only year he avoided a DL trip in the last 5 years, and he still only played 110 games that year so he probably had a couple of those 5-7 day stretches where he couldn't play.

He's not the least durable guy in the world, but my entire point is just that he's also not a guy you can rely on to be there every game, he'll probably make a DL trip at least once a season and miss a few other spurts here and there.

And, more to my main point, is that being able to avoid these types of DL trips and missed games isn't just blind luck. There are obviously guys that can do it much better than other guys. You can't say that two guys with basically the same numbers are equally as valuable to a team when one guy plays 155 games most years and the other plays 125.

Its the same as with pitchers. Some guys can eat innings and make 32+ starts a year. Others can't do it as consistently or consistently at all.

[TGO]

Take any two years you want out of there and he's still not a very reliable guy, especially over the last 3 years when there haven't been any of his problems with his arm surgery.

His surgery was at the end of 2005, so it effected in him really only in 2006 (he missed the last 6 weeks of 2005 with it). His last 3 years have been completely free of that injury and he's still only averaged about 120 games. He's not an incredibly healthy guy in terms of staying on the field.

You aren't looking at the situations he was in, particularly in 2007.

He was brought into CHC to backup/compete with Theriot and Ronny Cedeno after being relegated to that role thanks to his injuries the prior two years. He lost to Theriot. He then went to Pittsburgh in mid-July, which happened to have one of the only shortstops better than him on defense.

I happen to agree with you that you can't say he's as valuable as ____ player (in this case Tejada) because if you extrapolate his numbers yada yada. But I don't buy this injury prone argument either. Frankly, looking at games played as a measure of reliability is a method of argument that's beneath you. You're a better poster than that.

[RShack]

Yeah, one injury over 4 years is why I think he's not likely to play 162 games in 2010.

46

135

158

159

106

54

110

135

114

Maybe you can look at those and see a guy who is likely to play almost every game, but I sure don't.

He's not the least durable guy in the world, but my entire point is just that he's also not a guy you can rely on to be there every game, he'll probably make a DL trip at least once a season and miss a few other spurts here and there.

And, more to my main point, is that being able to avoid these types of DL trips and missed games isn't just blind luck.

The '70 and '71 O's were among the best teams ever. While the '79 and '83 teams weren't as good, they got to WS.

The '70 team had just 5 guys who played in as many as 135 games, while each of the others had only 4 guys who did.

A little bit of that was platooning, but not all of it was.

Except for his TJ surgery and appendicitis, Izzy has failed to do that only 1 other time since he got off the bus part way through the 2001 season. If I'm counting right, that's 2 injuries, plus appendicitis.

According to you, how many injuries is a guy allowed to have before you call him injury prone and conclude he is lacking in skill?

Apparently, it's a number smaller than 2. I hope Bergy doesn't miss many more games for the next 8 years, because he used up his 1 injury last year...