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Atkins: the ultimate litmus test


Frobby

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Something got dropped. They did some advanced analysis about park effects. Fine. But they clearly didn't have anyone with any real "swing" acumen take a look at him. Crowley didn't look until he was already signed.

Cart before horse.

You don't need to be a swing guru to see that this guy's hitting tools are defunct. It's not like his mechanics are awful -- at least, not .544 awful. He just doesn't get the bat around quickly enough to square up and generate power, and he almost never centers bat head on ball. This is readily apparent to anyone with a little bit of acumen and powers of observation, and I'm certain that a compilation of his at-bats from 2009 would have told the same story. Surely even AM himself would have noticed it.

So how much video did anybody watch? And were any other sources consulted? Does the Orioles' staff not own a file of scouting reports on all MLB players and significant prospects? Did anyone talk to NL managers who faced him for the past couple of years?

Furthermore, only a little bit of statistical expertise is required to spot the warning signs. The precipitous trend line of his OPS should have been a howling clue that something was not right here. (How many times in baseball history has a player fallen so drastically over three years and then recovered to a reasonable level in his next season?) Does AM not have someone on staff who can provide that kind of statistical reality check?

Seriously: on what basis are these decisions being made?

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So how much video did anybody watch? And were any other sources consulted? Does the Orioles' staff not own a file of scouting reports on all MLB players and significant prospects? Did anyone talk to NL managers who faced him for the past couple of years?

I'm beginning to wonder how our advanced scouting in general compares to other teams. Could this be one of the reasons that we're hitting so poorly? Everyone's said for years that Crowley is a good, or even great, hitting coach. I'm skeptical, but could our failures be that TC isn't even given the tools to win?

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I'm beginning to wonder how our advanced scouting in general compares to other teams. Could this be one of the reasons that we're hitting so poorly? Everyone's said for years that Crowley is a good, or even great, hitting coach. I'm skeptical, but could our failures be that TC isn't even given the tools to win?

Good questions. I would be curious to know whether a constant CF camera feed is available to teams for every pitch of every game. If so, then advance scouting isn't as important for hitters and pitcher as it used to be.

As to Crowley, I'm willing to accept that he's a good swing technician, maybe even a very good one. Whether he's as good at coaching approach and breaking down pitchers is another question.

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You don't need to be a swing guru to see that this guy's hitting tools are defunct. It's not like his mechanics are awful -- at least, not .544 awful. He just doesn't get the bat around quickly enough to square up and generate power, and he almost never centers bat head on ball. This is readily apparent to anyone with a little bit of acumen and powers of observation, and I'm certain that a compilation of his at-bats from 2009 would have told the same story. Surely even AM himself would have noticed it.

So how much video did anybody watch? And were any other sources consulted? Does the Orioles' staff not own a file of scouting reports on all MLB players and significant prospects? Did anyone talk to NL managers who faced him for the past couple of years?

Furthermore, only a little bit of statistical expertise is required to spot the warning signs. The precipitous trend line of his OPS should have been a howling clue that something was not right here. (How many times in baseball history has a player fallen so drastically over three years and then recovered to a reasonable level in his next season?) Does AM not have someone on staff who can provide that kind of statistical reality check?

Seriously: on what basis are these decisions being made?

Exactly. Atkins is the first decision that makes me question the front office. My faith is shaken.

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(How many times in baseball history has a player fallen so drastically over three years and then recovered to a reasonable level in his next season?)

Actually, the one glimmer of hope I had was that PECOTA's 50% projection for him was a nearly .800 OPS, because he was comparable to a bunch of guys like Jeff King, Charlie Hayes, and Terry Pendelton who played very poorly then rebounded.

It appears they fell off for reasons other than slow pitch softball bat speed.

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I'm wondering if Atkins steady decline over three years has to do with the lack of a certain performance enhancing substance?:scratchchinhmm:

You aren't the first to wonder.

More important, though, is whether AM and his staff asked themselves this question.

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