Joe Jordan on the Rob Long Show at 9:45am today

[Hank Scorpio]

No, but you are not going to hear ANYONE say that they had Hobgood rated higher than Matzek. Matzek should have been the pick for a number of reason including him being further along than Hobgood. I do not mind taking high upside high school kids, just not when high upside college pitchers are available. Only time will tell, but the Orioles taking Hobgood over Matzek reminds me of the Raiders taking Heyward-Bay over Crabtree.

If slotbusting as often as they did last year was due to the selection of Hobgood at #5, I'm fine with it.

[Peace21]

Hobgood wasn't some Chris Smith joke reach pick. He was a guy who would sign for slot money, but was still rated a high first round pick by most. Maybe not top 5, but he was definitely in the top 15-20 by most publications.

Taking a guy who will sign for slot money isn't necessarily a bad thing. Ask our RF how much money he held out for. He actually was willing to sign for below slot money.

Oh yeah, not saying it was a bad thing. I think the pick saved money to pay for guys like Givens and Coffey and others.

[Tony-OH]

It is way too soon to tell if Hobgood or Matzek will be the better pick and we will probably have to wait at least 3-4 years to find out. That being said, did anyone see anything in Hobgood that Matzek didn't bring to the table at a more advanced level? If Hobgood and Matzek were asking for and obtaned the same salary then I would think that Hobgood was the player we coveted most. When Hobgood gets $2M less than Matzek in terms of a signing bonus then I have my doubts.

Quite simply Joe didn't think Matzek was worth the money he was asking. Time will tell whether that was the right decision, but Hobgood was not just a signability pick. Maybe if Matzek was asking for slot money he would have thought he was worth that, but in Joe's opinion, Matzek's demands were above what he believed he was worth.

The one things Joe does a very good job at is determining a player's value and than sticking to that belief when drafting. This is why he has never lost a significant player to not signing. Givens changed his demands after being drafted, then came back to his senses and signed for the value Joe offered. Joe was willing to let Givens go if he did not come back to his value.

I remember very clearly being told that after the first two picks there was no one "special" left on the board so the Orioles were not about to go way over slot on guys who perceived themselves as special bu were no in the Orioles eyes. Grant Green is another guy who wanted more than the Orioles thought he was worth.

Jordan showed he was willing to go over slot for guys like Wieters and Matusz because they were special guys.

If Matzek ends up special then people will be right in saying the Orioles were incorrect in his assessment.

Joe and his scouts are not infallible (afterall they picked Rowell over Lincecum), but they have shown an outstanding ability to decipher value of players.

[Frobby]

Not singling out the poster here and I've only had limited conversations with Joe Jordan, but he will not be haunted by the pick forever. If JJ picked the wrong guy or misjudged someone's talent, that's a lesson learned, but the process of selecting the first rounder is so thorough that JJ will not regret the pick in the sense mentioned above. He made the best decision he could at the time and likely would make the same selection with the same information nine or 10 times out of ten.

The "consensus" draft board that is built by Baseball America and others is simply that - a consensus. As an analyst/critic, it is easy to find comfort in and refer to a consensus. However, when you are the one actually making the pick, it's a bit different, no? Do you go with the consensus or with the pick you personally like most? JJ has said he liked Hobgood most and that's that. I'm impressed he had the stones to buck the consensus as he did. Just like when JJ selected Rowell ahead of Lincecum and, despite the Rowell bust, JJ is sitting on a Top 10 farm system for two years in a row (though the organization has clearly benefited from prospects acquired via trade).

FWIW, Matzek was my pre-season prediction for our pick. When it appeared we would go in a different direction, I was hoping for Wheeler.

When I say Jordan will be "haunted," I don't mean he will second guess himself. I just mean we will hear about it all the time, just like we're always hearing about how we could have drafted Lincecum instead of Rowell.

[RShack]

Seems to be a relative gamble on the part of Jordan.

That pretty much describes his job...

[Lucky Jim]

Quite simply Joe didn't think Matzek was worth the money he was asking. Time will tell whether that was the right decision, but Hobgood was not just a signability pick. Maybe if Matzek was asking for slot money he would have thought he was worth that, but in Joe's opinion, Matzek's demands were above what he believed he was worth.

The one things Joe does a very good job at is determining a player's value and than sticking to that belief when drafting. This is why he has never lost a significant player to not signing. Givens changed his demands after being drafted, then came back to his senses and signed for the value Joe offered. Joe was willing to let Givens go if he did not come back to his value.

I remember very clearly being told that after the first two picks there was no one "special" left on the board so the Orioles were not about to go way over slot on guys who perceived themselves as special bu were no in the Orioles eyes. Grant Green is another guy who wanted more than the Orioles thought he was worth.

Jordan showed he was willing to go over slot for guys like Wieters and Matusz because they were special guys.

If Matzek ends up special then people will be right in saying the Orioles were incorrect in his assessment.

Joe and his scouts are not infallible (afterall they picked Rowell over Lincecum), but they have shown an outstanding ability to decipher value of players.

I think the only questionable judgment from the O's was their estimate of what it would actually take to sign Matzek. They looked at what he was asking and determined that he wouldn't sign in a reasonable range. It turns out that he did. If you asked them now if they'd have drafted Matzek if they thought they could sign him for $3.9m, I think they'd have done it.

I don't blame them for this (much), because it looked like Matzek was willing to go to college. But good on the Rockies for judging the situation correctly.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think the only questionable judgment from the O's was their estimate of what it would actually take to sign Matzek. They looked at what he was asking and determined that he wouldn't sign in a reasonable range. It turns out that he did. If you asked them now if they'd have drafted Matzek if they thought they could sign him for $3.9m, I think they'd have done it.

I don't blame them for this (much), because it looked like Matzek was willing to go to college. But good on the Rockies for judging the situation correctly.

From Tony above:

I remember very clearly being told that after the first two picks there was no one "special" left on the board so the Orioles were not about to go way over slot on guys who perceived themselves as special bu were no in the Orioles eyes.

Apparently they judged Matzek "not special." That assessment could be questioned--if not now then by the end of this season.

[JTrea81]

A few questions.

Have the Orioles EVER drafted someone you agreed with?

Matt Wieters

Why do you follow a team you so often vehemently disagree with?

Because I am an Orioles fan, and Andy MacPhail and Peter Angelos won't be with the Orioles forever.

Jordan's drafts have certainly taken a different turn since MacPhail has been in charge IMO. Under Duquette and Flanagan in 2007, he was given a larger budget IMO and more reign to spend to get the best talent available in the earlier rounds.

Then starting in 2008, under MacPhail, pitching is a priority over hitting even if said player isn't the BPA. Instead of spending major money on first and early round talent lke he did with Wieters and Arrieta, he's shifted philosophy to spreading it around all rounds of the draft.

Both strategies are classic MacPhail.

It will be interesting to see if the Orioles have Harper in their sights for instance, and pass on him to pick another pitcher that Jordan has a "gut feeling" about that isn't ranked as highly...

[Lucky Jim]

From Tony above:

I remember very clearly being told that after the first two picks there was no one "special" left on the board so the Orioles were not about to go way over slot on guys who perceived themselves as special bu were no in the Orioles eyes.

Apparently they judged Matzek "not special." That assessment could be questioned--if not now then by the end of this season.

Special is relative. As I said, they may not have felt Matzek was $7m special, but very much felt that he was $4m special.

[Tony-OH]

I think the only questionable judgment from the O's was their estimate of what it would actually take to sign Matzek. They looked at what he was asking and determined that he wouldn't sign in a reasonable range. It turns out that he did. If you asked them now if they'd have drafted Matzek if they thought they could sign him for $3.9m, I think they'd have done it.

I don't blame them for this (much), because it looked like Matzek was willing to go to college. But good on the Rockies for judging the situation correctly.

I would disagree. I don't think Joe thought Matzek was that special, and $3.9 is still significantly over slot.

[Sports Guy]

Special is relative. As I said, they may not have felt Matzek was $7m special, but very much felt that he was $4m special.

Yep...Same thing maybe for Grant Green.

So, the question is, did Jordan misread the situations or did he feel he would sign for 4 million and still didn't want him?

[RShack]

Because I am an Orioles fan, and Andy MacPhail and Peter Angelos won't be with the Orioles forever.

So, JTrea will be with us longer than AM will.

That's a comforting thought...

[Tony-OH]

Matt Wieters

Jordan's drafts have certainly taken a different turn since MacPhail has been in charge IMO. Under Duquette and Flanagan in 2007, he was given a larger budget IMO and more reign to spend to get the best talent available in the earlier rounds.

Laughably wrong.

Instead of spending major money on first and early round talent lke he did with Wieters and Arrieta, he's shifted philosophy to spreading it around all rounds of the draft.

He spent over slot for Matusz and didn't think their was a guy special enough at #5 last year to warrant a significantly over slot bonus.

Keep on keeping on, but your theories are just that, your theories. They have no basis in fact, but of course that will not stop you from continually acting like they do.

[CrimsonTribe]

So, JTrea will be with us longer than AM will.

That's a comforting thought...

Death, taxes, and JTrea.

[Tony-OH]

Yep...Same thing maybe for Grant Green.

So, the question is, did Jordan misread the situations or did he feel he would sign for 4 million and still didn't want him?

I've told you this before, but the Orioles had questions as to whether he could stay at SS and his bat does not project for a corner infielder. So I would say no, even at $4 million the Orioles were not going to take Green.