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OBP....and its importance


Sports Guy

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Lots of talk around here about needing a big bat...I think we should be adding OBP moreso.

Let's look at some rankings from the last few years..OBP and runs scored(AL only):

2009:

1) Yankees...1st in OBP...1st in runs scored.

2) Boston...2nd in OBP...3rd in runs scored.

3) Angels....3rd in OBP...2nd in runs scored.

4) Twins...4th in OBP...4th in runs scored.

5) Tampa...5th in OBP...5th in runs scored.

6) Baltimore...8th in OBP...11th in runs scored.

2008:

1) Boston...1st in OBP....2nd in runs scored.

2) Texas..2nd in OBP...1st in runs scored.

3) Yankees...3rd in OBP...7th in runs scored.

4) Detroit...4th in OBP...4th in runs scored.

5) Minnesota...5th in OBP...3rd in runs scored.

6) Baltimore...8th in OBP...8th in runs scored.

2007:

1) Yankees...1st in OBP...1st in runs scored.

2) Boston...2nd in OBP...3rd in runs scored.

3) Angels...3rd in OBP...4th in runs scored.

4) Detroit...4th in OBP...2nd in runs scored.

5) Cleveland...5th in OBP...6th in runs scored.

6) Baltimore...9th in OBP...9th in runs scored.

Pretty telling stuff there...Moral of the story? Get on base and you score runs. Its that simple.

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In looking at the team PECOTA projections, I noticed that our projected walk rate is terrible compared to most teams. We are projected to have the highest team BA in MLB (.280, tied with the Twins), but only 7th in the AL in OBP (.347). We are projected to have the 2nd worst walk rate in the league.

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Pretty telling stuff there...Moral of the story? Get on base and you score runs. Its that simple.

Unless, of course. you do stupid things on the basepaths once you get there. That may have contributed to the relative disconnect between the Orioles' OBP and runs scored last year (8th vs. 11th).

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I agree, OBP is most important.

I'm really hoping Jones can begin to show more plate discipline, similiar to how he started last year.

Get over the dream...Jones may give us a 350 OBP but that will be because he hits for a high BA.

He is usually going to be a 330ish OBP guy.

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I agree, OBP is most important.

I'm really hoping Jones can begin to show more plate discipline, similiar to how he started last year.

He went from a 4.5% BB% in his rookie year to 6.9% BB%. I would be trilled if he could get over 8% this year.

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I think that's being very conservative. Even with his poor performance in the second half, Jones has already put up a .335 OBP in his sophomore year (his BB% increased from 4.5% to 6.9%; '08 - '09) and I don't think he's done improving in this regard. I think he'll eventually be good for a 10% BB% and a consistent .290 average, which would push his OBP to the .370-.380 area.

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Lots of talk around here about needing a big bat...I think we should be adding OBP moreso.

Let's look at some rankings from the last few years..OBP and runs scored(AL only):

2009:

1) Yankees...1st in OBP...1st in runs scored.

2) Boston...2nd in OBP...3rd in runs scored.

3) Angels....3rd in OBP...2nd in runs scored.

4) Twins...4th in OBP...4th in runs scored.

5) Tampa...5th in OBP...5th in runs scored.

6) Baltimore...8th in OBP...11th in runs scored.

2008:

1) Boston...1st in OBP....2nd in runs scored.

2) Texas..2nd in OBP...1st in runs scored.

3) Yankees...3rd in OBP...7th in runs scored.

4) Detroit...4th in OBP...4th in runs scored.

5) Minnesota...5th in OBP...3rd in runs scored.

6) Baltimore...8th in OBP...8th in runs scored.

2007:

1) Yankees...1st in OBP...1st in runs scored.

2) Boston...2nd in OBP...3rd in runs scored.

3) Angels...3rd in OBP...4th in runs scored.

4) Detroit...4th in OBP...2nd in runs scored.

5) Cleveland...5th in OBP...6th in runs scored.

6) Baltimore...9th in OBP...9th in runs scored.

Pretty telling stuff there...Moral of the story? Get on base and you score runs. Its that simple.

Couldn't Agree more.

Orioles AL Aggregate Walk Rankings By Year (http://www.baseball-reference.com)

11 out of 14 - 2009

9 out of 14 - 2008

11 out of 14 - 2007

10 (Tie) out of 14 - 2006

10 (Tie) out of 14 - 2005

During the Terry Crowley era (since 1999) the Orioles have only been in the upper half of the aggregate rankings twice (1999 and 2004). And only in one year (1999), have their walks been above the AL average.

This isn't intended only to attack Crowley, since player selection also is an important component.

However, the Orioles have been a below average team for over a decade in terms of drawing walks. If the offense is going to take it to the next level, moving up the walk rankings is an area of opportunity.

Working the count and plate discipline need to be priorities beginning on Day One of Spring Training. Lip Service just isn't going to cut it anymore, not if the Orioles expect to improve their offense.

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BRob, Nick, Wieters, Scott, and Reimold all have good plate discipline and the potential to put up a high OBP. Jones and Pie both showed good plate discipline when they adhered to Crowley's adjustments. Miggi,Wiggi, Atkins and Izzi, aren't going to change, but still no reason to think we can't be improved this season.

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BRob, Nick, Wieters, Scott, and Reimold all have good plate discipline and the potential to put up a high OBP. Jones and Pie both showed good plate discipline when they adhered to Crowley's adjustments. Miggi,Wiggi, Atkins and Izzi, aren't going to change, but still no reason to think we can't be improved this season.

Sounds like a really shady law firm

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Good old OPS still holding up pretty well there.

That's a fascinating chart, and it's interesting how all the fancy-schmancy offensive stats really add very little to what you get out of OPS. Bu this seems inconsistent with the well-accepted notion that OBP is more important than SLG. Or is this chart not really addressing that point.

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That's a fascinating chart, and it's interesting how all the fancy-schmancy offensive stats really add very little to what you get out of OPS. Bu this seems inconsistent with the well-accepted notion that OBP is more important than SLG. Or is this chart not really addressing that point.

That is because OPS breaks down to this:

dlf_ops9.JPG

It is pretty damn close to XRR

dlf_ops10.JPG

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Couldn't Agree more.

Orioles AL Aggregate Walk Rankings By Year (http://www.baseball-reference.com)

11 out of 14 - 2009

9 out of 14 - 2008

11 out of 14 - 2007

10 (Tie) out of 14 - 2006

10 (Tie) out of 14 - 2005

During the Terry Crowley era (since 1999) the Orioles have only been in the upper half of the aggregate rankings twice (1999 and 2004). And only in one year (1999), have their walks been above the AL average.

This isn't intended only to attack Crowley, since player selection also is an important component.

However, the Orioles have been a below average team for over a decade in terms of drawing walks. If the offense is going to take it to the next level, moving up the walk rankings is an area of opportunity.

Working the count and plate discipline need to be priorities beginning on Day One of Spring Training. Lip Service just isn't going to cut it anymore, not if the Orioles expect to improve their offense.

Walks are vastly overated. Give me hitters with higher BA's and more homers and walks aren't even much of a factor.

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