Tillman

[GoldGlove21]

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5279&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4259&position=P

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5673&position=P

All of the projection systems like Tillman much more in 2010 than Berken or Hernandez.

Too bad those projections mean very little, but it is easy to see why people like a player who put up fantastic minor league numbers. I really dislike berken by the way and think Hernandez should be on the pen so there really is no comparision for me there.

[PaulFolk]

1.) They saw a depleted starting staff. Even Andy MacPhail said that Tillman was called up too early. If Bergesen didn't got down then you wouldn't have seen Tillman as early or at all. Not a very good argument. Matusz is far and away the best pitcher on our staff. He has three pitches that grade as plus and another than grade as potential plus. Tillman has a plus curve and fastball.

When did MacPhail say this?

I think you've got it backwards. Matusz is the one who wouldn't have been called up if Bergesen didn't get injured. Tillman was promoted to the majors before Bergesen's injury.

[Sports Guy]

Too bad those projections mean very little, but it is easy to see why people like a player who put up fantastic minor league numbers. I really dislike berken by the way and think Hernandez should be on the pen so there really is no comparision for me there.

You said an argument could be made for sending Tillman down...i would like to see that argument and you have to make it in context to what we currently have on the team..Hell, make the argument and include FA pitchers.

[TyCobb]

1.) They saw a depleted starting staff. Even Andy MacPhail said that Tillman was called up too early. If Bergesen didn't got down then you wouldn't have seen Tillman as early or at all. Not a very good argument. Matusz is far and away the best pitcher on our staff. He has three pitches that grade as plus and another than grade as potential plus. Tillman has a plus curve and fastball.

2.) I would be disappointed as well as that would mean that the guy didn't earn it even if the Orioles wanted to give him the job. On a side note, the Orioles are rumored to be talking to Wang and/or Washburn which means they are looking for ML pitching depth. Tillman seems like the logical guy to be pushed out of the rotation. If I wouldn't have read those reports I would have assumed that Tillman was our guy no matter how he performed.

1) I would take Tillman's Curve and Changeup over any other pitch on the O's entire staff. I am almost a 100% sure Tillman got called up because he was dominating AAA. Matusz is the one that skipped AAA.

2) Wang isn't going to sign a MLB contract. He was so bad last year that it is very likely Wang career is over in the bigs. Washburn signing with the O's isn't going to happen because it makes zero sense for Washburn future. "Washburn rejected a one-year, $5 million offer from the Twins on Saturday, the Sporting News reports." Chances AM offers more than 5 million for Washburn is nearly zero. FA pitchers don't want to sign with the O's too. Small ball park and they face a lot of good hitting teams.

[JTrea81]

There is a lot more to pitching than giving up homers...i am not sure you realize that or not.

Tillman is CLEARLY one of our 5 best starters...its not even a debate.

Tillman was on pace to give up 45+ HR last year in 200 IP. That is a problem. You can say that if they are all solo jacks he'll be fine, but that's highly unlikely. A good portion of those are going to be multi-run HRs.

You can't have a 2.08 HR/9 and expect to succeed in the majors.

[Sports Guy]

Tillman was on pace to give up 45+ HR last year in 200 IP. That is a problem.

You can't have a 2.08 HR/9 and expect to succeed in the majors.

And for you to automatically assume that is going to continue is so poor.

Your ability to look at a small sampling of data and ignore everything else is truly special and unique...and not in a good way.

I find it funny that you think these extreme outliers will continue for Tillman but you think AGon will continue to have his extreme outliers from 2009.

Funny how you do this when it suits your argument.

[Lucky Jim]

Funny how you do this when it suits your argument.

This is the key. What's not funny is how he pipes up with the same stuff in every thread as if we don't know what he thinks. And I use "think" loosely.

[JTrea81]

And for you to automatically assume that is going to continue is so poor.

Your ability to look at a small sampling of data and ignore everything else is truly special and unique...and not in a good way.

I find it funny that you think these extreme outliers will continue for Tillman but you think AGon will continue to have his extreme outliers from 2009.

Funny how you do this when it suits your argument.

I'm going on the word of a guy that said this is how he has pitched for his entire professional career:.

One of the concerns I had about Tillman when he was coming up through the lower minors with Seattle was how often he pitched up in the strike zone with his fastball. It helped him rack up a good amount of strikeouts, but also spelled danger for his future home run rates when he started facing guys strong enough to put those pitches in the seats.

...

Now, he’s not going to keep giving up home runs on 19% of his flyballs, but there’s little doubt that Tillman’s style of pitching is going to make him an extreme flyball pitcher, and home runs are always going to be an issue for him. As he matures, he’s going to have to spot his fastball down in the zone with some more frequency – it will cost him a bit off his strikeout rate, but the reduction in balls in the air will be worth it.

The high fastball works in the minors but not in the majors, and that is what has hurt Tillman. His bread and butter no longer works.

Now he can adapt, and maybe he will, but I wouldn't count on it, and if his strikeout rate goes down, he won't be a TOR starter, rather a #4 starter.

There is a lot to be concerned about with Tillman. I just hope we didn't miss our chance to trade him at his peak before the Orioles try to "adjust" him at the ML level. There is a chance they can make him less effective.

[Sports Guy]

I'm going on the word of a guy that said this is how he has pitched for his entire professional career:.

The high fastball works in the minors but not in the majors, and that is what has hurt Tillman. His bread and butter no longer works.

Now he can adapt, and maybe he will, but I wouldn't count on it, and if his strikeout rate goes down, he won't be a TOR starter, rather a #4 starter.

There is a lot to be concerned about with Tillman. I just hope we didn't miss our chance to trade him at his peak before the Orioles try to "adjust" him at the ML level. There is a chance they can make him less effective.

This has already been explained to you time and time again...You would figure at some point you would recognize the arguments and the points made against what you believe, that shows you to just be flat out wrong.

But again, that won't help you with one of your normal rants that usual;ly have no basis behind them.

Oh and btw, I agree that the FB rate and HR rate need to be improved...i think everyone understands that...I think a chimp would agree with that obvious thing...That's like saying the Baltimore area could sure use some sunny warm days right now.

[TyCobb]

Tillman was on pace to give up 45+ HR last year in 200 IP. That is a problem. You can say that if they are all solo jacks he'll be fine, but that's highly unlikely. A good portion of those are going to be multi-run HRs.

You can't have a 2.08 HR/9 and expect to succeed in the majors.

I went to fangraphs for the qualified only starters. Went back all the way to 2002 and no pitcher had giving up more than 2+ HR/9.

[RShack]

The high fastball works in the minors but not in the majors, and that is what has hurt Tillman. His bread and butter no longer works

Are you nuts? Jim Palmer *loved* to throw high fastballs. They'd hit it way up in the air and then an OF'er would catch it.

Look, why don't you go learn baseball first, and then come back...

[Sports Guy]

Are you nuts? Jim Palmer *loved* to throw high fastballs. They'd hit it way up in the air and then an OF'er would catch it.

Look, why don't you go learn baseball first, and then come back...

Well Palmer did have the luxury of bigger parks back then as well.

You can't totally discount this...Tillman does need to get the ball down more and Tillman does need to improve the HR rate...But there is absolutely zero reason to think he won't do this...Jtrea acts as if it is a certainty that he will not improve.

[TyCobb]

Well Palmer did have the luxury of bigger parks back then as well.

You can't totally discount this...Tillman does need to get the ball down more and Tillman does need to improve the HR rate...But there is absolutely zero reason to think he won't do this...Jtrea acts as if it is a certainty that he will not improve.

If Tillman stops throwing the high fastball, nobody would swing at his curveball. We don't even know if it is even true that Tillman would be an extreme flyball pitcher.

IMO Tillman needs to throw less FA and more CH.

[Sports Guy]

If Tillman stops throwing the high fastball, nobody would swing at his curveball. We don't even know if it is even true that Tillman would be an extreme flyball pitcher.

IMO Tillman needs to throw less FA and more CH.

I am not asking him to stop throwing it...I am saying he has to mix in other pitches, work inside more and, like you said, use his change up more...Problem is, that isn't a consistent pitch yet..he has to develop the confidence in it.

[Old#5fan]

Well Palmer did have the luxury of bigger parks back then as well.

You can't totally discount this...Tillman does need to get the ball down more and Tillman does need to improve the HR rate...But there is absolutely zero reason to think he won't do this...Jtrea acts as if it is a certainty that he will not improve.

There are few "(certainties" in life or baseball. (Other than death and taxes and the Yankees will have a high payroll).One thing I am certain though is Tillman has the best curve ball of any Orioles pitcher on the roster. If he can gain better command of his fastball and keep it down more in the zone he has potentially the best chance of developing into the ace of this staff. The reason I say this is his youth and that exceptional pitch that usually an ace has in their arsenal. Why would we want to trade him away?