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Kevin Goldstein chat on Harper


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From today's chat at BP:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=717

I think the math on this works out to KG thinking Harper could be there for us right this minute:

Joe (Pa): Odds on Harper being available when the Pirates pick?

Kevin Goldstein: Well over 50%. Chances of the Pirates taking Harper is he's there? Miniscule.

That quote doesn't look good for the O's.

lemppi (Ankeny, IA): Could Bryce Harper fall something like Porcello did? Maybe late teens?

Kevin Goldstein: Or even further.

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Would the Orioles select Harper? I would like to see another pick like Matusz. You can never have enough pitching.

I simply don't know enough about Harper or scouting to know if he is the real deal or not. If he is, I guess you gotta select him, right?

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Would the Orioles select Harper? I would like to see another pick like Matusz. You can never have enough pitching.

I simply don't know enough about Harper or scouting to know if he is the real deal or not. If he is, I guess you gotta select him, right?

I'm no expert, but Harper's supposed to be mega good. Like Wieters quality.

In that chat, saying he could fall to the teens or beyond, that's just signability, right? Is Bora$$ his agent? If he's really that good I could see AM giving Jordan the go ahead if he's there for us. Maybe that's who Doc was hinting about... :P

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I hope that we draft him if he's there, although he will be incredibly expensive. While I'm convinced he's the best player, I'm not convinced that he's worth $10M more than someone like Tailon.

That will be something to keep an eye on as the draft approaches. Yes, Harper has tremendous hype and a hefty price tag, but most expect Taillon to command a large bonus, too. There may not be much of a difference between what they sign for.

If the top 2 talents in this draft end up as Harper & Taillon (IMO, very likely), how much will money play a part? If Harper is asking for the moon, but the 2nd best talent is close and being more reasonable, it makes it easier to pass on Harper. If you have to go further down the rankings to find a talent that will sign for non-record money, is it worth saving that money or do you bite the bullet and hand out one of the higher deals in draft history?

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My guess is that Doc was hinting Christian Colon.

Kevin Goldstein notwithstanding, I have my doubts that Harper will get past the Nats and Pirates, and I doubt that Jordan sees him as a realistic target.

Provided he can stick at SS, Colon would be worth of the #3 pick.

Still, I'll be a bit disappointed if we draft him over Taillon, provided the latter is still on the board.

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I wouldn't be too upset if we passed on Harper, especially if we picked Ranaudo.

Personally, until Ranaudo comes back and proves that his forearm injury was nothing of consequence, he makes me nervous.

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