Is Confidence In Winning A Barrier To Sucess?

[Sports Guy]

Yeah, but the topic was whether it was important in SPRING TRAINING!!!

Yea I know...The topic is stupid, therefore I was trying to change it and try to make it a conversation worthy of this site.

[Old#5fan]

Yea I know...The topic is stupid, therefore I was trying to change it and try to make it a conversation worthy of this site.

Oh, okay. I understand. Everyone isn't a self-proclaimed genius like yourself eh?

[BRobinsonfan]

Oldfan,

If you were diagnosed with cancer and the doctor told you "treatment A" offered an 85% cure rate and "treatment B" offered a 15% cure rate - which one would you choose and why?

For purposes of this exercise all other variables are the same, price of treatment, side effects, etc.

[SilentJames]

Oldfan,

If you were diagnosed with cancer and the doctor told you "treatment A" offered an 85% cure rate and "treatment B" offered a 15% cure rate - which one would you choose and why?

For purposes of this exercise all other variables are the same, price of treatment, side effects, etc.

That won't work because it is medicine. There is no human-element there.

But this argument:

OldFan, I am building the roster for my Advance Placement (College Level in High School) Geography course next year.

Should I take the students with a history of A's in their history and English classes, or should I take the students with histories of C's?

[BaltimoreTerp]

That's because statistical analysis is so unreliable as to be useless as a predictor of anything meaningful. One of the biggest reasons for this is it cannot take into account the human factor that there are intangibles that will alter the performance of a player. Nick Markakis adjusting to his marriage and a child was one that no statistical analysis took into account for example. Of course if we has said that to you last season you would probably have laughed it off as not having any real impact, yet Markakis has now publicly said it did. So there you go. Sort of proves the human factor may have a bigger impact than you wish to acknowledge. The problem is you cannot quantify it statistically can you?

By this logic there is nothing that can predict anything.

[BRobinsonfan]

OldFan,

It's 1965 and you're the GM of the Baltimore Orioles. You have a chance to trade Jack Baldschun, Milt Pappas and Dick Simpson to the Cincinnati Reds for either outfielder Frank Robinson or outfielder Vada Pinson. Which one would you trade for and why?

[Old#5fan]

That won't work because it is medicine. There is no human-element there.

But this argument:

OldFan, I am building the roster for my Advance Placement (College Level in High School) Geography course next year.

Should I take the students with a history of A's in their history and English classes, or should I take the students with histories of C's?

It depends on whether all the students had the same instructors at the same school with the same grading system.

When I graduated from high school I took the ACT Test and it predicted I had only a 60 % chance of getting a "C" or better in College. Well, guess what, I graduated from College with a 3.4 and was considered Cum Laude at Mount Saint Mary's University.

I also had a friend who graduated third in my HS class and was Captain of my school's It's Academic team which won several weeks in a row - a real brain. He went to Western Maryland College and took courses such as Gourmet Cooking and Ball room dancing and majored in partying (actually History) and graduated with a 2.0.

What was the reason for this? My guess is it was due to the fact I had to pay my way through college while working full time, whereas my friend did not (he was on his parent's dime). So even though he was much smarter than me, I applied my self and he didn't.

So much for statistics as predictors eh?

The human factor is always going to come into play.

[Old#5fan]

OldFan,

It's 1965 and you're the GM of the Baltimore Orioles. You have a chance to trade Jack Baldschun, Milt Pappas and Dick Simpson to the Cincinnati Reds for either outfielder Frank Robinson or outfielder Vada Pinson. Which one would you trade for and why?

Frank because he hit more homers, was a former MVP and I believe Rookie of the Year.

Pinson was good too, but not nearly as good as the future HOFer Frank.

As I have posted many, many times I find stats extremely useful as a past measurement but essentially worthless to predict anything specific. Frank had a chance of being a very good player after the trade and switch to the AL but no statistician could have predicted he would win the Triple Crown, and anyone would know he would be very good or better as that is just common sense.

[SilentJames]

It depends on whether all the students had the same instructors at the same school with the same grading system.

When I graduated from high school I took the ACT Test and it predicted I had only a 60 % chance of getting a "C" or better in College. Well, guess what, I graduated from College with a 3.4 and was considered Cum Laude at Mount Saint Mary's University.

I also had a friend who graduated third in my HS class and was Captain of my school's It's Academic team which won several weeks in a row - a real brain. He went to Western Maryland College and took courses such as Gourmet Cooking and Ball room dancing and majored in partying (actually History) and graduated with a 2.0.

What was the reason for this? I had to pay my way through college while working full time and by friend did not (he was on his parent's dime). So even though he was much smarter than me, I applied my self and he didn't.

So much for statistics as predictors eh?

The human factor is always going to come into play.

That is not the situation I gave you. You didn't answer my question.

This is a closed system here. I have to select students for this class. They had the same teachers and the same curriculum. One gets all A's - one gets all C's. That is the only information I will have.

Base on that information - who should I choose to be in my AP class?

[waroriole]

That is not the situation I gave you. You didn't answer my question.

This is a closed system here. I have to select students for this class. They had the same teachers and the same curriculum. One gets all A's - one gets all C's. That is the only information I will have.

Base on that information - who should I choose to be in my AP class

Haha, I loved his answer. You should have known that was what you were going to get.

[BRobinsonfan]

Frank because he hit more homers, was a former MVP and I believe Rookie of the Year.

Pinson was good too, but not nearly as good as the future HOFer Frank.

As I have posted many, many times I find stats extremely useful as a past measurement but essentially worthless to predict anything specific. Frank had a chance of being a very good player after the trade and switch to the AL but no statistician could have predicted he would win the Triple Crown, and anyone would know he would be very good or better as that is just common sense.

So you would choose Frank because he was a better player in the past than Pinson?

[Old#5fan]

That is not the situation I gave you. You didn't answer my question.

This is a closed system here. I have to select students for this class. They had the same teachers and the same curriculum. One gets all A's - one gets all C's. That is the only information I will have.

Base on that information - who should I choose to be in my AP class

If you choose on a reward system it would be the kids with the higher grades. If you choose on a potential system it could be the kids with all C's as they may not be getting challenged enough, hence their lower grades.

[BRobinsonfan]

I

When I graduated from high school I took the ACT Test and it predicted I had only a 60 % chance of getting a "C" or better in College. Well, guess what, I graduated from College with a 3.4 and was considered Cum Laude at Mount Saint Mary's University.

Of course neither the ACT or the SAT predict what you're actual letter grade will be in college - they simple measure your readiness for college.

I'm guessing that on your way to racking up the "3.4 GPA" you never took a statistics course.

[Note to self: Don't let kids go to Mount Saint Mary's]

[Old#5fan]

So you would choose Frank because he was a better player in the past than Pinson?

Of course I would, as generally you could say he should be a better player than Pinson in the future as well but that is all you can say. What I am denouncing is anyone who thinks they would have been able to predict Frank's Triple Crown Year in 1966 by using statistics as a predictor. Nobody could then, and nobody can now. Statistics are no better than a guess with a range built into them.

I could have said I predict Frank will be the best hitter on the Orioles in 1966 and wouldn't need to be an expert in statistics to do so. Whereas as stats guru would say I predict he will hit in a range of 300-320 with 32-40 homers and 100-115 rbi's. So what? I don't see where that is anymore useful at all. Neither of us would have foreseen his best season ever now would we?

[Old#5fan]

Of course neither the ACT or the SAT predict what you're actual letter grade will be in college - they simple measure your readiness for college.

I'm guessing that on your way to racking up the "3.4 GPA" you never took a statistics course.

[Note to self: Don't let kids go to Mount Saint Mary's]

I swear my ACT results gave me a 60% chance of getting a C or better in College which was why I went to a Junior College for my first couple years. (I had no confidence and had to pay my own way anyway). So at that time they did "predict" your grade chances despite your counter-assertion.

You did guess right, I avoided a course in statistics by taking Linguistics instead.:laughlol: