Pomeranz and McGuire dominant last night

[DocJJ]

Pomeranz 6.1 IP 1 ER 3 BB 12 K's.

McGuire CG (9IP) 1 ER 2 BB 8 K's.

Impressive. With Ranaudo out, these two have clearly established themselves early on as the top college arms.

[DocJJ]

6'3 200 lb LHP Danny Hultzen threw 6 shutout innings with 6 K's for UVA last night. He went 9-1 with over 1K/IP last year. I don't think he's draft eligible this year, though. He's from Bethesda, Md.

[EL_Coyote]

McGuire is hard not to like. Even when he isn't dominant. Harper would be almost impossible to pass on... Taillon has all the potential.... McGuire though just seems to be the surest thing!

[DocJJ]

which leaves the O's at 3 with a decision to make.

I think the consensus is Ranaudo, McGuire or Pomeranz. If Ranaudo is healthy, he's the consensus 3. But if he's not, then it's one of the other guys. I'd rate Pomeranz a tick higher because he's faced tougher competition (both in college and Team USA international competition), and because he's lefty.

[blamo0]

Living in the heart of SEC country and seeing both Pomeranz and Ranaudo play, I like Pomeranz better.

I'm no scout, but I really like Pomeranz.

[QBsILLEST1]

McGuire is hard not to like. Even when he isn't dominant. Harper would be almost impossible to pass on... Taillon has all the potential.... McGuire though just seems to be the surest thing!

Ehh, IMO McGuire isn't as sure of a thing as you think, but I am sure you have plenty of reasons to believe so. What I see in McGuire is a pitcher who has a quality arsenal, slightly above average fastball with average to above average secondary offerings, average command and questionable composure on the mound. His stuff is by no means electric IMO, but at the same time he doesn't have tremendous command to make up for that.....

I dunno, I would probably be pretty upset if we took him at 1:3

I would rather take my chances with some of the HS kids, or as Doc mentioned, Pomeranz. Pomeranz over a healthy Ranaudo is unconventional to most in the industry, but personally, I like his polish(and curveball) more than Ranaudo's physical projection, but most feel differently....

Depending on what organization drafts Covey and Taillon, you may see these 2 beat some of the higher regarded college SPs to the ML.....

[Hutman]

Ehh, IMO McGuire isn't as sure of a thing as you think, but I am sure you have plenty of reasons to believe so. What I see in McGuire is a pitcher who has a quality arsenal, slightly above average fastball with average to above average secondary offerings, average command and questionable composure on the mound. His stuff is by no means electric IMO, but at the same time he doesn't have tremendous command to make up for that.....

I dunno, I would probably be pretty upset if we took him at 1:3

I would rather take my chances with some of the HS kids, or as Doc mentioned, Pomeranz. Pomeranz over a healthy Ranaudo is unconventional to most in the industry, but personally, I like his polish(and curveball) more than Ranaudo's physical projection, but most feel differently....

Depending on what organization drafts Covey and Taillon, you may see these 2 beat some of the higher regarded college SPs to the ML.....

Tallion is compared to Josh Beckett which is high praise. He is certainly in my top 3. I haven't seen anyone rate Covey as high as you have (he is more in the top 20 not top 5). Most of the experts have Cole and Karsten Whitson as 2 and 3 prep arms. Also, I haven't seen anyone mention Alex Wimmers out of OSU who is in ESPN's top 10, does Greg or Stotle have any insight into him. I like Pomeranz and McGuire if Ranaudo is not healthy enough both of them are projected as 2/3 type pitchers and with Tillman and Matusz we don't need a TOR starter, but solid depth.

[QBsILLEST1]

Tallion is compared to Josh Beckett which is high praise. He is certainly in my top 3. I haven't seen anyone rate Covey as high as you have (he is more in the top 20 not top 5). Most of the experts have Cole and Karsten Whitson as 2 and 3 prep arms. Also, I haven't seen anyone mention Alex Wimmers out of OSU who is in ESPN's top 10, does Greg or Stotle have any insight into him. I like Pomeranz and McGuire if Ranaudo is not healthy enough both of them are projected as 2/3 type pitchers and with Tillman and Matusz we don't need a TOR starter, but solid depth.

When can you not need a TOR starter? Thats crazy to me, and right now, Matusz is the only one who actually is going to definitely be a TOR SP. Tillman may become one, but he needs a bit mroe time and I am not sure if he will end up a TOR or a very good mid rotation arm. I know, most folks aren't as high on Covey as I am, though some folks are. He is underrated IMO, his biggest knock is he lacks projection. Cole and Whitson are the consensus 2 and 3 prep arms on most lists. They both have a ton of projection and already throw pretty hard. Cole's secondaries though aren't very strong and IMO too much of his prospect status is wrapped up in his projection, what if he adds no more MPH to his fastball and his secondaries don't develop? I like Whitson more than Cole though and he would be my #3 prep arm.

We already have enough depth of mid rotation arms for the next 4-5 years. I see no need to add another arm to the future logjam in our rotation unless it is going to be the best arm of the entire bunch, and thats not the case of any pitchers who will be ML ready in the next 2 years of the upcoming draft.

And the reason I said Taillon and Covey will be up before some higher regarded college arms is because Covey already has ML stuff w/ good command and more polish than any other prep arm in this draft and Taillon has elite stuff that won't need a ton of development to be able to get ML hitters out on a consistent basis, kinda like Tillman not needing to be 100% developed to come up to the ML and do a decent job.....

[rhall]

Cole and Whitson are the consensus 2 and 3 prep arms on most lists. They both have a ton of projection and already throw pretty hard. Cole's secondaries though aren't very strong and IMO too much of his prospect status is wrapped up in his projection, what if he adds no more MPH to his fastball and his secondaries don't develop? I like Whitson more than Cole though and he would be my #3 prep arm.

He already throws in the low to mid 90's, so he'll be fine even without an uptick in velo.

And I've read that he's got a pretty nice knuckle curve. His control of it could probably use some polish, but this is true of almost every highschool pitcher. If that kind of thing scares you away picking a highschool arm early, it shows a lack of trust in your scouts and developmental system.

[QBsILLEST1]

He already throws in the low to mid 90's, so he'll be fine even without an uptick in velo.

And I've read that he's got a pretty nice knuckle curve. His control of it could probably use some polish, but this is true of almost every highschool pitcher. If that kind of thing scares you away picking a highschool arm early, it shows a lack of trust in your scouts and developmental system.

His curve is a decent pitch, but it isn't as good as the other top prep's main secondary offering. To me, it is only slightly better than Taillon's slider, but of course, things may look a bit different in person than on video. Other than that knuckle curve, what else does he have that is any good? Nothing, and I remember Stotle's decsription of Cole's curve and how it doesn't project extremely well.

Pretty much what I am saying is, yes, Cole already pitches in the low 90's and touching higher, but so does Whitson, so does Covey, so does Gausman, so does Vanegas and Smelter and Kowart. Cole's ranking is mostly because some scouts think one day he may sit in the mid 90's touching upper 90's, like Taillon has begun to do. This is why I would personally take a few prep arms over Cole, because projection isn't a tool or skill, it is a constantly depreciating asset that has a decent chance of never turning into actual value when the future becomes present......Its not like I hate physical projection, because I actually really like pitchers with good physical projection, but I want to see a better curve and the makings of atleast another usable pitch.

Lets think of it this way, since you said even if Cole never does add any more ticks to his fastball, he will still have plenty of velocity. If he was less projectable and had a body like Covey, would he be in discussion for a top 5 pick?

[rhall]

His curve is a decent pitch, but it isn't as good as the other top prep's main secondary offering. To me, it is only slightly better than Taillon's slider, but of course, things may look a bit different in person than on video. Other than that knuckle curve, what else does he have that is any good? Nothing, and I remember Stotle's decsription of Cole's curve and how it doesn't project extremely well.

Pretty much what I am saying is, yes, Cole already pitches in the low 90's and touching higher, but so does Whitson, so does Covey, so does Gausman, so does Vanegas and Smelter and Kowart. Cole's ranking is mostly because some scouts think one day he may sit in the mid 90's touching upper 90's, like Taillon has begun to do. This is why I would personally take a few prep arms over Cole, because projection isn't a tool or skill, it is a constantly depreciating asset that has a decent chance of never turning into actual value when the future becomes present......Its not like I hate physical projection, because I actually really like pitchers with good physical projection, but I want to see a better curve and the makings of atleast another usable pitch.

Lets think of it this way, since you said even if Cole never does add any more ticks to his fastball, he will still have plenty of velocity. If he was less projectable and had a body like Covey, would he be in discussion for a top 5 pick?

No, absolutely not, but that's not how things work. If you don't trust in projectability, you wouldn't be the only one. But, if Cole's stuff is good enough now to be a first round pick you have to expect his stereotypical, projectable pitcher's frame to boost his draft stock. Personally, I would take Whitson over Cole, but I go back and forth between Cole and Covey. Reports on high school pitchers can often create an inconsistent picture, so sometimes it's hard to sort it all out.

[rhall]

His curve is a decent pitch, but it isn't as good as the other top prep's main secondary offering. To me, it is only slightly better than Taillon's slider, but of course, things may look a bit different in person than on video. Other than that knuckle curve, what else does he have that is any good? Nothing, and I remember Stotle's decsription of Cole's curve and how it doesn't project extremely well.

Pretty much what I am saying is, yes, Cole already pitches in the low 90's and touching higher, but so does Whitson, so does Covey, so does Gausman, so does Vanegas and Smelter and Kowart. Cole's ranking is mostly because some scouts think one day he may sit in the mid 90's touching upper 90's, like Taillon has begun to do. This is why I would personally take a few prep arms over Cole, because projection isn't a tool or skill, it is a constantly depreciating asset that has a decent chance of never turning into actual value when the future becomes present......Its not like I hate physical projection, because I actually really like pitchers with good physical projection, but I want to see a better curve and the makings of atleast another usable pitch.

Lets think of it this way, since you said even if Cole never does add any more ticks to his fastball, he will still have plenty of velocity. If he was less projectable and had a body like Covey, would he be in discussion for a top 5 pick?

You said that Cole doesn't have any secondaries? I'm not calling you a liar. I assume you read that somewhere or something. I just wanted to point out how inconsistent reports on high school pitchers can be.

This is from BA's preseason HS All-Americans team (link):

A.J. Cole, rhp

Oviedo (Fla.) HS

Before seeing him throw a pitch, scouts take a liking to Cole. He has an ideal, projectable pitcher's frame at 6-foot-5, 190 pounds to go with a good arsenal. His fastball regularly sits 90-93 mph but he has run it up to 95 on several occasions. His second-best pitch is a 77-80 knuckle-curve that has sharp, 11-to-5 break. He also has a good changeup with fade, a rare commodity among prep arms.

Dylan Covey, rhp

Maranatha HS, Pasadena, Calif.

Covey has an explosive, 92-95 mph fastball. He has a big frame, but is still athletic. He also throws a power breaking ball in the 82-84 mph range and has some feel for a changeup. A San Diego commit, he was impressive at the Aflac game, striking out two of the three hitters he faced. Covey projects as a first-round talent—significantly higher than his father, Darrell, went (29th round) to the Mets in 1968.

If you're a scouting director, and these are the reports you get, you'd be crazy (okay, crazy is a bit strong, but you get my point) not to take the more projectable guy, in this case that's Cole. I guess it all depends on how they do on the days that your scout is present.

[QBsILLEST1]

You said that Cole doesn't have any secondaries? I'm not calling you a liar. I assume you read that somewhere or something. I just wanted to point out how inconsistent reports on high school pitchers can be.

This is from BA's preseason HS All-Americans team (link):

If you're a scouting director, and these are the reports you get, you'd be crazy (okay, crazy is a bit strong, but you get my point) not to take the more projectable guy, in this case that's Cole. I guess it all depends on how they do on the days that your scout is present.

Well, thats the problem with very vague reports, you really don't know much more than what they say. So Cole has a sharp breaking curveball, and an apparent decent changeup, what about deception, does he have any deception? Does he telegraph his curve or changeup? How is the arm slots on both pitches and does he change arm speed? What about command? How is their command?

That report is so vague, its ridiuclous, it basically gives the impression that Covey and Cole's curveball's are similarly rated. Go ask any scouting director there is if that is true and see what they say. I read a few days ago that some scouts say that Covey's curveball is the best they have seen from a prep in years. He also has excellent command for a HSer, and to me it looks like they mixed up Cole's and Covey's changeups, Covey has a very good changeup as a 3rd pitch. Cole may just have a feel for it.

Its very interesting how you can find such a variety of different reports for these HS guys. If I believed exactly what they say about Cole to be true, I would like him more. But I don't think I have ever read a more rosey colored report on Cole. I

As for not believing in projection, its not that I don't believe in physical projection, because I do, I just want something to fall back on in case nothing comes from his physical projection. If the BA report is spot on then my worries would be taken care of, its just like I said, I have never heard such a positive take from his stuff...And especially since this was the "preseason" report, I am not necessarily taking it with a grain of salt, but I would like to hear more reports coming back saying similar things....

[rhall]

Well, thats the problem with very vague reports, you really don't know much more than what they say. So Cole has a sharp breaking curveball, and an apparent decent changeup, what about deception, does he have any deception? Does he telegraph his curve or changeup? How is the arm slots on both pitches and does he change arm speed? What about command? How is their command?

That report is so vague, its ridiuclous, it basically gives the impression that Covey and Cole's curveball's are similarly rated. Go ask any scouting director there is if that is true and see what they say. I read a few days ago that some scouts say that Covey's curveball is the best they have seen from a prep in years. He also has excellent command for a HSer, and to me it looks like they mixed up Cole's and Covey's changeups, Covey has a very good changeup as a 3rd pitch. Cole may just have a feel for it.

Its very interesting how you can find such a variety of different reports for these HS guys. If I believed exactly what they say about Cole to be true, I would like him more. But I don't think I have ever read a more rosey colored report on Cole. I had a discussion with Stotle a few months back about Cole's curveball and how it is pretty good, but it doesn't project as well as the other top prep arm's main secondary offerings. I also recall him saying that the pitch wasn't currently as good as the others either.

As for not believing in projection, its not that I don't believe in physical projection, because I do, I just want something to fall back on in case nothing comes from his physical projection. If the BA report is spot on then my worries would be taken care of, its just like I said, I have never heard such a positive take from his stuff...And especially since this was the "preseason" report, I am not necessarily taking it with a grain of salt, but I would like to hear more reports coming back saying similar things....

I'm not trying to say that Cole's breaking ball is as good as Covey's. I agree that Covey has a very good one - better than Cole's. I'm just pointing out how inconsistent reports can be on highschoolers, and that there are position reports out there on most everyone, including Cole. I've actually read one report where they called Covey's breaking ball a slider. Everywhere else I've seen it described as a curve. I am hesitant to sway too far in any one direction with the picture these reports paint.

As for Cole's breaking ball. Everywhere I've seen has called it a knuckle curve. The problem that most people have with the knuckle curve is that a lot of guys have a hard time throwing it for strikes, so it doesn't work as they move up the minor league ladder. There are plenty of reports that say Cole's has a sharp break, and I've read at least one that says he can throw it for strikes. IMO, how Cole's breaking ball projects to the next level depends on how much truth there is in those reports. I haven't seen him pitch, so I can't really say.

And there's nothing wrong with this being a "preseason" report. Much of the country hasn't even started their season yet, and with those that have, how much work have their starters gotten? Maybe 2 or 3 starts Nothing we've heard so far should be drastically changing what the preseason opinion was. Even taking the beginning of the 2010 season into consideration, that link I posted is only 3 weeks old. So, yes, their 2010 seasons matter a whole lot - for all of them. They need to back up their track records coming into the season, or they're going to slide.

[QBsILLEST1]

I'm not trying to say that Cole's breaking ball is as good as Covey's. I agree that Covey has a very good one - better than Cole's. I'm just pointing out how inconsistent reports can be on highschoolers, and that there are position reports out there on most everyone, including Cole. I've actually read one report where they called Covey's breaking ball a slider. Everywhere else I've seen it described as a curve. I am hesitant to sway too far in any one direction with the picture these reports paint.

As for Cole's breaking ball. Everywhere I've seen has called it a knuckle curve. The problem that most people have with the knuckle curve is that a lot of guys have a hard time throwing it for strikes, so it doesn't work as they move up the minor league ladder. There are plenty of reports that say Cole's has a sharp break, and I've read at least one that says he can throw it for strikes. IMO, how Cole's breaking ball projects to the next level depends on how much truth there is in those reports. I haven't seen him pitch, so I can't really say.

And there's nothing wrong with this being a "preseason" report. Much of the country hasn't even started their season yet, and with those that have, how much work have their starters gotten? Maybe 2 or 3 starts Nothing we've heard so far should be drastically changing what the preseason opinion was. Even taking the beginning of the 2010 season into consideration, that link I posted is only 3 weeks old. So, yes, their 2010 seasons matter a whole lot - for all of them. They need to back up their track records coming into the season, or they're going to slide.

I know, I saw that recent report calling Covey's curve a slider. If I recall correctly, it was one of the higher regarded analysts who actually wrote that. As for Cole's curve, I wouldn't be too worried about him being able to throw it for strikes. What is very good with Cole is that his delivery is so smooth and fluid, and he gets such a good downward plane on his pitches that he should develop some pretty decent command.

BUT, I will say that I hope this report from BA is right. If his curve does wind up being a plus pitch(they didn't say it was necessarily) and if he does actually have a good changeup, I will be much more enthusiastic about him and wouldn't be upset if we drafted him. But under my prior beliefs and assumptions of Cole, I would be disappointed if we drafted him. But, he has been said to touch 97 a few times last year, if he can throw strikes and has a good foundation of secondary pitches, he would actually be a great pick up by the O's. He is gonna be someone I will be keeping a very close eye on....

Wow, and your right, I for some reason was under the assumption that since some of the more southern HS leagues have started, all have, but I don't even know if the programs around here have yet in southern VA. But my point with it being a pre-season report is that between the end of last season, nothing has changed as far as we know with most of these guys, so why did Cole's scouting report from BA vary so much from other ones I have read? But, we discussed the answeres to that question already, and all we can do is hope the BA report is right and we have another solid option here at 1:3.....