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When will someone pass Mussina's 270 wins?


Frobby

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With the retirement of Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson, here is the active leaderboard in career wins (age in paretheses):

Jamie Moyer (46) 258 L

Andy Pettitte (37) 229 L

Pedro Martinez (37) 219 R

John Smoltz (42) 213 R

Tim Wakefield (42) 189 R

Livan Hernandez (34) 156 R

Kevin Millwood (34) 155 R

Bartolo Colon (36) 153 R

Roy Halladay (32) 148 R

Mike Hampton (36) 148 L

Tim Hudson (33) 148 R

Steve Trachsel (38) 143 R

Javier Vazquez (33) 142 R

Derek Lowe (36) 141 R

Tom Gordon (41) 138 R

Roy Oswalt (31) 137 R

CC Sabathia (28) 136 L

Mark Buehrle (30) 135 L

Jeff Suppan (34) 135 R

Barry Zito (31) 133 L

Jason Schmidt (36) 130 R

Esteban Loaiza (37) 126 R

Johan Santana (30) 122

It's not clear that Moyer will make the Phillies' rotatation, but you can't count him out of getting 12 more wins. I'd say the odds are less than 50/50. Ditto for Pettitte, who needs 41 more wins and he has made noise about retiring for the last several years.

Once you get past those two, I don't see anyone with a chance of getting to 270 wins until you get to Halladay, who would need 8 pretty strong seasons to get there. Oswalt, Sabathia and Buehrle also have a decent shot, but that's probably going to take 9 years. A lot of things can happen in that time to pitchers in their 30's.

Bottom line, after the parade of 300-game winners in the 2000's, we probably won't see any in this decade, and it's questionable whether anyone will even pass Mussina's 270.

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I think Halladay is the only one with a really good shot.

Of Oswalt, Buehrle, and Sabathia, I think CC would be the only guy there. I don't expect to see Oswalt and Buehrle stick around long enough to get there.

If Santana has put his injuries behind him, he's young enough and good enough to get to 270. 300 may be a stretch though.

Obviously Matusz and Tillman will be the only 400 game winners in our lifetime.

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It's gonna be a looooong time before we see someone approach him. I don't think the current studs (Halladay, Sabathia, Santana) will make it. I'm afraid we'll have to rely on the newer crop of young studs (Lincecum, Hanson, Josh Johnson etc). But there's just too much between now and then.

5 years ago, everyone thought Pedro and Santana would breeze to 300. Now it's not so solid.

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With the retirement of Tom Glavine and Randy Johnson, here is the active leaderboard in career wins (age in paretheses):

Jamie Moyer (46) 258 L

Andy Pettitte (37) 229 L

Pedro Martinez (37) 219 R

John Smoltz (42) 213 R

Tim Wakefield (42) 189 R

Livan Hernandez (34) 156 R

Kevin Millwood (34) 155 R

Bartolo Colon (36) 153 R

Roy Halladay (32) 148 R

Mike Hampton (36) 148 L

Tim Hudson (33) 148 R

Steve Trachsel (38) 143 R

Javier Vazquez (33) 142 R

Derek Lowe (36) 141 R

Tom Gordon (41) 138 R

Roy Oswalt (31) 137 R

CC Sabathia (28) 136 L

Mark Buehrle (30) 135 L

Jeff Suppan (34) 135 R

Barry Zito (31) 133 L

Jason Schmidt (36) 130 R

Esteban Loaiza (37) 126 R

Johan Santana (30) 122

It's not clear that Moyer will make the Phillies' rotatation, but you can't count him out of getting 12 more wins. I'd say the odds are less than 50/50. Ditto for Pettitte, who needs 41 more wins and he has made noise about retiring for the last several years.

Once you get past those two, I don't see anyone with a chance of getting to 270 wins until you get to Halladay, who would need 8 pretty strong seasons to get there. Oswalt, Sabathia and Buehrle also have a decent shot, but that's probably going to take 9 years. A lot of things can happen in that time to pitchers in their 30's.

Bottom line, after the parade of 300-game winners in the 2000's, we probably won't see any in this decade, and it's questionable whether anyone will even pass Mussina's 270.

There's your best bet right there. Out of that list, Halladay is the only realistic one in my book. Sabathia could, but that will depend a lot on his weight and physical ability. The same is true for every pitcher really, but Sabathia in particular.

But we all know the real answer to this question is Matusz, Tillman, and Matt Hobgood! ;)

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I think Hallady and Sabathia have the best shot to do it if they stay healthy. They are the best pitchers in the game and they both have long term contracts with teams that give them the best shot to win that many games. Also, I think Buerhle and Santana have decent shots to do it, but will ultimately come up short. While Petite and Moyer are the closest, I just don't think the they have enough left to get there.

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Why is Halladay a better bet than Sabathia who is four years younger and only 8 wins behind?

I not only agree with Frobby's main point - it is something I have said for several years. Some number between 200 and 250 will become the new 300 as folks realize how difficult it is to rack up wins in a five man rotation.

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Why is Halladay a better bet than Sabathia who is four years younger and only 8 wins behind?
Because he's doesn't weigh 400 pounds.

I think Sabathia is the better bet, due to his relative youth. Also, he's pretty much assured of playing for a great-hitting team for the next 6 years.

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I can't believe you guys are counting out Steve Trachsel. ;)

If Moyer doesn't do it, I think Mussina may well be the last 270 game winner unless something changes in current usage patterns throughout the sport. Some of the guys on the list have a chance to make a run, but I wouldn't bet on any of them.

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I'm afraid we'll have to rely on the newer crop of young studs (Lincecum, Hanson, Josh Johnson etc). But there's just too much between now and then.

Felix Hernandez, barring injury, could feasibly eclipse 300 wins in his career. He's the guy I'm keeping an eye on. Already has 58 wins and he turns 24 this year.

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I think Sabathia is the better bet, due to his relative youth. Also, he's pretty much assured of playing for a great-hitting team for the next 6 years.

Despite a few notable counter-examples, I think excessively large players have a much higher risk of injury.

I can't believe you guys are counting out Steve Trachsel. ;)

If Moyer doesn't do it, I think Mussina may well be the last 270 game winner unless something changes in current usage patterns throughout the sport. Some of the guys on the list have a chance to make a run, but I wouldn't bet on any of them.

Ever? That's a long time. Also, if current usage patterns don't change over the next (whatever period you want) it'll be the first time.

We're near a theoretical low in starter innings unless they start expanding rosters. I think it's possible we'll see innings creep up again. Or some new type of reliever who only comes in during tie games or games down by a run or two who could win a lot of games, like Elroy Face-type relievers used to.

Moyer can surely get 12 more wins I would think???

I don't think you can count on a 47-year-old to win any more games. Sure, he won 12 last year. But I think knuckleballer Phil Neikro holds the all-time record for wins at 47, with 11.

Felix Hernandez, barring injury, could feasibly eclipse 300 wins in his career. He's the guy I'm keeping an eye on. Already has 58 wins and he turns 24 this year.

If he pitches until he's 40 he only has to win 14 games a year every year.

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When or If Sabathia begins to faulter I would suspect that NY gets rid of him one way or another. Six years is a long time in NY for a pitcher nowadays.

Still hard to believe as good as Roy Halladay is he only has 148 wins.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind it so much of Moyer surpassed Mussina. However I have to agree a 47 year old winning 12 would be really tough.

I don't think we've seen the last of 300 game winners. If nothing else drug testing will result in fewer blastings pitchers have to take. It may take some time though.

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