Matzek vs Taillon

[QBsILLEST1]

This thread idea was sparked from another thread, but I think it is a validcomparison. Both pitchers were/are regarded as the top prep arms in their respective drafts. Both have 4 pitches, and both are/were at the top of most of the fans wishlists. So, who do you guys like more as a prospect and why....

Personally, I feel Taillon is the better prospect, but it isn't that far appart really. Like I said above, both guys have 4 pitches that project to be quality ML pitches down the road, but the difference is that Taillon's current stuff is almost off the charts. He lacks the physical projection that Matzek has, but he also has a better fastball. Taillon also has a better curveball now and projects to have a better one in the future. Taillon's curve may project as a plus-plus pitch, giving him 2 possible plus-plus offerings in the future on top of a slider that flashes plus now and should be another possible plus pitch and a changeup which he has a feel for which could be a 4th pitch anywhere from average to slightly better. Matzek OTOH profiles as a bit different type of pitcher than Taillon. Matzek's current stuff isn't as good as Taillon's and he really only had 1 plus pitch at the time of being drafted. His other secondary offerings though for the most part flashed plus and project to all be above average to plus offerings down the road. Though his arsenal as a whole may not be as elite as Taillon's, his good command and advanced pitch-ability set him appart making him a slightly safer bet.

So, who do you guys like more? I bring this up because Joe Jordan didn't think Matzek was worth the asking price. And you better believe that Taillon's asking price may be more than Matzek's was, so does Jordan take the chance on Taillon and see the value in him, opposed to his decision on Matzek?

My theory on Joe Jordan is that he will be more inclined to go for Taillon due to his value not being wrapped up in projection(of his stuff, not physical projection) but actual present day skills and tools. Also, as for comps, with Matzek, you are looking at Brett Anderson type of quality as far as upside is concerned and Taillon OTOH has an upside that rivals Strasburg.

On the intangible side of things, Taillon will score highly in Joe Jordan's book, moreso than Matzek did. He is a nice young man and seems to be closer mentally to Matt Hobgood than Tyler Matzek, especially after reading about the poster here who sent baseball cards to the 2010 draft prospects and got the Taillon autograph back pretty quickly and left a nice note.

All in all, Matzek projected to be a great pitcher with 4 pitches that should develop into above averag to plus offerings, good command and pitchability, but his present "stuff" didn't match what Taillon brings to the table.

[rhall]

This thread idea was sparked from another thread, but I think it is a validcomparison. Both pitchers were/are regarded as the top prep arms in their respective drafts. Both have 4 pitches, and both are/were at the top of most of the fans wishlists. So, who do you guys like more as a prospect and why....

Personally, I feel Taillon is the better prospect, but it isn't that far appart really. Like I said above, both guys have 4 pitches that project to be quality ML pitches down the road, but the difference is that Taillon's current stuff is almost off the charts. He lacks the physical projection that Matzek has, but he also has a better fastball. Taillon also has a better curveball now and projects to have a better one in the future. Taillon's curve may project as a plus-plus pitch, giving him 2 possible plus-plus offerings in the future on top of a slider that flashes plus now and should be another possible plus pitch and a changeup which he has a feel for which could be a 4th pitch anywhere from average to slightly better. Matzek OTOH profiles as a bit different type of pitcher than Taillon. Matzek's current stuff isn't as good as Taillon's and he really only had 1 plus pitch at the time of being drafted. His other secondary offerings though for the most part flashed plus and project to all be above average to plus offerings down the road. Though his arsenal as a whole may not be as elite as Taillon's, his good command and advanced pitch-ability set him appart making him a slightly safer bet.

So, who do you guys like more? I bring this up because Joe Jordan didn't think Matzek was worth the asking price. And you better believe that Taillon's asking price may be more than Matzek's was, so does Jordan take the chance on Taillon and see the value in him, opposed to his decision on Matzek?

My theory on Joe Jordan is that he will be more inclined to go for Taillon due to his value not being wrapped up in projection(of his stuff, not physical projection) but actual present day skills and tools. Also, as for comps, with Matzek, you are looking at Brett Anderson type of quality as far as upside is concerned and Taillon OTOH has an upside that rivals Strasburg.

On the intangible side of things, Taillon will score highly in Joe Jordan's book, moreso than Matzek did. He is a nice young man and seems to be closer mentally to Matt Hobgood than Tyler Matzek, especially after reading about the poster here who sent baseball cards to the 2010 draft prospects and got the Taillon autograph back pretty quickly and left a nice note.

All in all, Matzek projected to be a great pitcher with 4 pitches that should develop into above averag to plus offerings, good command and pitchability, but his present "stuff" didn't match what Taillon brings to the table.

I think Taillon is a better prospect, and I don't know if anyone would pick Matzek unless they really value his lefthandedness.

I think an interesting discussion would be comparing the draft classes from 2009 & 2010 and trying to see if that would help us predict what Jordan will do. They are similar in that they are both deep in elite HS arms.

He didn't take Matzek or any of the other highly rated HS arms in 2009 because he didn't see enough of a difference between them and the "next tier" to pay their higher bonus demands. While Matzek was as high as #2 overall on some teams' draft boards, I don't think he ranked that high on the boards as consistently as Taillon will.

Before the draft, Matzek said he wanted unprecedented money, so even if we expect Taillon to get a lot of money, I don't think bonus demands come into play too much when making this comparison.

The 2010 draft class has good alternatives. Is Taillon seen as a big enough upgrade to pay the extra money? In Jordan's opinion, Matzek wasn't. In Jordan's opinion, he wasn't even in a different tier than Hobgood.

[QBsILLEST1]

I think Taillon is a better prospect, and I don't know if anyone would pick Matzek unless they really value his lefthandedness.

I think an interesting discussion would be comparing the draft classes from 2009 & 2010 and trying to see if that would help us predict what Jordan will do. They are similar in that they are both deep in elite HS arms.

He didn't take Matzek or any of the other highly rated HS arms in 2009 because he didn't see enough of a difference between them and the "next tier" to pay their higher bonus demands. While Matzek was as high as #2 overall on some teams' draft boards, I don't think he ranked that high on the boards as consistently as Taillon will.

Before the draft, Matzek said he wanted unprecedented money, so even if we expect Taillon to get a lot of money, I don't think bonus demands come into play too much when making this comparison.

The 2010 draft class has good alternatives. Is Taillon seen as a big enough upgrade to pay the extra money? In Jordan's opinion, Matzek wasn't. In Jordan's opinion, he wasn't even in a different tier than Hobgood.

I agree with what you say, Taillon is hands down the #2 prospect in this draft, and will consistently rank higher than Matzek did on other team's boards.

And I think that Taillon does look, head and shoulders better than the other options. Thats the thing with Matzek and his projection, yes he looked like an elite HS pitching prospect, but his "right now" stuff while being pretty good, wasn't elite. What he projected to become is what was elite, so maybe that is why JJ saw Hobgood on a similar level as Matzek. Because Hobby actually has a plus curve that ranked as the best among prep arms in the 09 draft to go with a low to mid 90 fastball. If you looked at Matzek's stuff right then(at the time of the draft) his secondaries flashed plus, but were inconsistent for the most part. Matzek's projection in his arsenal really could go either way. You just can't put a ceiling on his secondaries, especially since they seem to be just now developing toward the "plus" level, but, a lot would have to go right still in order to have an arsenal similar to Taillon....

In Taillon's case, he combines excellent "right now" stuff along with some projection in his secondaries which makes him seem like a better "right now" prospect. In other words, any other HS pitching prospect would be very lucky to project, let alone become what Taillon has become, especially over the last 2 years. His fastball now touches 99 MPH, ridiculous filthy curveball, slider flashes plus and a feel for a changeup.

Personally, I think that while the comparison between Matzek and Taillon is pretty close, the perception, due to "right now" stuff, the distance is much greater, giving Taillon a pretty good shot to become a Baltimore Oriole....

[rhall]

I agree with what you say, Taillon is hands down the #2 prospect in this draft, and will consistently rank higher than Matzek did on other team's boards.

And I think that Taillon does look, head and shoulders better than the other options. Thats the thing with Matzek and his projection, yes he looked like an elite HS pitching prospect, but his "right now" stuff while being pretty good, wasn't elite. What he projected to become is what was elite, so maybe that is why JJ saw Hobgood on a similar level as Matzek. Because Hobby actually has a plus curve that ranked as the best among prep arms in the 09 draft to go with a low to mid 90 fastball. If you looked at Matzek's stuff right then(at the time of the draft) his secondaries flashed plus, but were inconsistent for the most part. Matzek's projection in his arsenal really could go either way. You just can't put a ceiling on his secondaries, especially since they seem to be just now developing toward the "plus" level, but, a lot would have to go right still in order to have an arsenal similar to Taillon....

In Taillon's case, he combines excellent "right now" stuff along with some projection in his secondaries which makes him seem like a better "right now" prospect. In other words, any other HS pitching prospect would be very lucky to project, let alone become what Taillon has become, especially over the last 2 years. His fastball now touches 99 MPH, ridiculous filthy curveball, slider flashes plus and a feel for a changeup.

Personally, I think that while the comparison between Matzek and Taillon is pretty close, the perception, due to "right now" stuff, the distance is much greater, giving Taillon a pretty good shot to become a Baltimore Oriole....

Yep, "right now" stuff instead of just projection definitely helps Taillon's prospect status... but I'm not ready to say that last part yet. The current Pirates regime is similar to the O's in that they've shown a willingness to spend big bucks in order to bring in an elite talent. If Harper & Taillon both are ranked as a clear cut #1 & 2, then I think the Pirates could still draft them, even if it means taking a HS pitcher in the top 5. We might need the Nats to pass on both of these guys in order to have a shot.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yep, "right now" stuff instead of just projection definitely helps Taillon's prospect status... but I'm not ready to say that last part yet. The current Pirates regime is similar to the O's in that they've shown a willingness to spend big bucks in order to bring in an elite talent. If Harper & Taillon both are ranked as a clear cut #1 & 2, then I think the Pirates could still draft them, even if it means taking a HS pitcher in the top 5. We might need the Nats to pass on both of these guys in order to have a shot.

Yeah, I think it would also be beneficial if we had a better collegiate player like Ranaudo to be a viable option at 1:2 or 1:3. In the case of having an elite college player and an elite HS player, the Pirates IMO would probably go for that college player. I dunno, I just don't see the Pirates going HS regardless. With the amount of HS and JuCo overslotters that there will be this year, I could see them doing like they did last year....

[EL_Coyote]

Based upon what I read online, I would choose Taillon.

I am no baseball scout so I cannot properly answer the OP. Could we use a big RHP that could become a great ML SP? You bet'cha!

However all the gripping about the Hobgood selection seems centered around money. I tend to side with Joe Jordan as he is the man with a professional scouting staff.

In four years time we will have a much better idea whether or not it was a blown selection or a very bright one. Most of us seem to regard the draft at this point as an opportunity to open up the check book and grab some upper tier talent. I tend to agree with that thinking as right now there is no visible Con to doing things that way. When a new labor agreement is reached perhaps there will be a drawback that we as fans can relate too and see the wisdom in selecting a prospect that is more cost effective.

[QBsILLEST1]

Based upon what I read online, I would choose Taillon.

I am no baseball scout so I cannot properly answer the OP. Could we use a big RHP that could become a great ML SP? You bet'cha!

However all the gripping about the Hobgood selection seems centered around money. I tend to side with Joe Jordan as he is the man with a professional scouting staff.

In four years time we will have a much better idea whether or not it was a blown selection or a very bright one. Most of us seem to regard the draft at this point as an opportunity to open up the check book and grab some upper tier talent. I tend to agree with that thinking as right now there is no visible Con to doing things that way. When a new labor agreement is reached perhaps there will be a drawback that we as fans can relate too and see the wisdom in selecting a prospect that is more cost effective.

I agree here, and respect your point of view. IMO the Hobgood selection will end up not being as scutinized as it is now once he gets going 100%. IMO people are getting more wrapped up in the rankings and where Hobgood fit among the rankings rather than forgetting where BA ranked Hobgood at and looking at it with an open mind. We got a guy who can touch 96 with his fastball, had the best curve of prep arms in 09 and has a changeup that flashed plus in Bluefield. If he continues to develop along his learning curve, that should be 3 plus pitches. His fastball has extreme boring action and will induce many many GBs, I don't see what is wrong with that, at all, but that is another argument that is realistically nothing more than fighting a losing battle(people want results and rather than giving benefit of the doubt, most people would rather doubt).

But, Taillon is a tremendous pitching prospect and upon signing will be one of the few prospects who actually PROJECT to be a true TOR SP.....

[allstar1579]

I agree here, and respect your point of view. IMO the Hobgood selection will end up not being as scutinized as it is now once he gets going 100%. IMO people are getting more wrapped up in the rankings and where Hobgood fit among the rankings rather than forgetting where BA ranked Hobgood at and looking at it with an open mind. We got a guy who can touch 96 with his fastball, had the best curve of prep arms in 09 and has a changeup that flashed plus in Bluefield. If he continues to develop along his learning curve, that should be 3 plus pitches. His fastball has extreme boring action and will induce many many GBs, I don't see what is wrong with that, at all, but that is another argument that is realistically nothing more than fighting a losing battle(people want results and rather than giving benefit of the doubt, most people would rather doubt).

But, Taillon is a tremendous pitching prospect and upon signing will be one of the few prospects who actually PROJECT to be a true TOR SP.....

Last thing I want to ever have to say about the Hobgood debate is that Jordan seems to be a huge fan of GB pitchers and I could easily say that Hobby was one of, if not the best there.

I think you are comparing two completely different style of pitchers here though, Matzek is more of a secondary first kinda pitcher (like Matusz) and JT is more of a power guy. I'd be kinda hard pressed to say one was better than the other honestly.

[LookinUp]

I get the feeling that Taillon will end up being in the Porcello class of high school kids, and that there's no way that both Pitt and the Nats pass on him.

Unfortunately. I'd love to have him in our system.

[EL_Coyote]

OK... going off topic here

The Nationals will spend money but the Pirates will not is my understanding. That said, are James Taillon's salary/signing requirements high or not? Or would the Pirates chance going in another direction as it is now?

[Arthur_Bryant]

OK... going off topic here

The Nationals will spend money but the Pirates will not is my understanding. That said, are James Taillon's salary/signing requirements high or not? Or would the Pirates chance going in another direction as it is now?

What is the source of your understanding that the Pirates will not spend money?

They out-spent everyone in MLB by a good margin last year ($9.35MM, beating the #2 Giants by $1.6MM) although they stayed within slot with their #1 pick. And they busted slot with Alvarez in 2008, when they were also among the top spenders in MLB.

This isn't the same regime that bypassed Wieters to take Daniel Moskos.

I would say that their big concern would be Taillon's signability and leverage as a HS player. They might figure that he will hold out for close to his opening price,which is likely to be crazy high. So to that extent I guess money is an issue (though the same certainly could be said of the O's as well). But they have showed for the past two years that they're ready to spend money in the draft.

[Hutman]

OK... going off topic here

The Nationals will spend money but the Pirates will not is my understanding. That said, are James Taillon's salary/signing requirements high or not? Or would the Pirates chance going in another direction as it is now?

The Pirates history over the last few drafts is to go with a pretty projectable college player vs. a higher cieling HS player. That being the case its highly likely they go with someone like McGuire, Pomerantz, or Ranaundo. That would leave Tallion as the choice for us at # 3.

[allstar1579]

Then again, about 20 teams passed on Porcello.

That was all price though. I think the feeling was if he didn't sign a big money deal with a contending team he was going to college. It's the small market teams with losing records that lose out the way the system is designed now.

[LookinUp]

That was all price though. I think the feeling was if he didn't sign a big money deal with a contending team he was going to college. It's the small market teams with losing records that lose out the way the system is designed now.

Yup, and like Wieters, many teams are kicking themselves now because of it. I get the general feeling that top level guys like that won't fall like they were a few years ago.

Of course, I'm assuming most teams didn't have Matzek on the Porcello level.

[allstar1579]

Yup, and like Wieters, many teams are kicking themselves now because of it. I get the general feeling that top level guys like that won't fall like they were a few years ago.

Of course, I'm assuming most teams didn't have Matzek on the Porcello level.

It's cause of the type of pitcher. Taillon will have the same hype, buzz and price tag that Porcello did, because he's that big, healthy looking power pitcher. Matzek was successful because of his secondary stuff, and teams tend to think there is more risk involved when a guy has to rely on curves, changes and sliders for their success. I guess in theory it's more likely for one of those pitches to be off any given day than a guys fastball, I don't get it personally.