Matzek vs Taillon

[Stotle]

I don't see Matzek as a "pitching backwards" guy. Just because his secondaries are advanced doesn't mean those are the pitches he uses the most. He loves throwing fastballs and has elite velocity. I think he and Taillon are very close in value, and I may prefer Matzek out of any of the arms in the last two drafts not named Strasburg.

[allstar1579]

I don't see Matzek as a "pitching backwards" guy. Just because his secondaries are advanced doesn't mean those are the pitches he uses the most. He loves throwing fastballs and has elite velocity. I think he and Taillon are very close in value, and I may prefer Matzek out of any of the arms in the last two drafts not named Strasburg.

I wasn't trying to say that is ALL he has, I just think his secondaries are better than his fastball cause I think they are that good. Just always how I looked at him, whereas some of the power guys are better known for their fastballs and secondary stuff not quite as good.

[Stotle]

I wasn't trying to say that is ALL he has, I just think his secondaries are better than his fastball cause I think they are that good. Just always how I looked at him, whereas some of the power guys are better known for their fastballs and secondary stuff not quite as good.

Right, and I didn't say that you said that secondaries were ALL that he had. I honetly don't think he's a pitch backwards guy, or that he relies on secondaries, which was what you were saying.

Just a difference of opinion -- no biggie.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I was sorry to see the O's pass on Matzek last June, and discussions like this one do nothing to change my mind. It's not a knock on Hobgood, and there are certainly plenty of chances for it all to work out well, but I hope that if the O's get another chance at a talent of this caliber, they won't let it get away.

[allstar1579]

Right, and I didn't say that you said that secondaries were ALL that he had. I honetly don't think he's a pitch backwards guy, or that he relies on secondaries, which was what you were saying.

Just a difference of opinion -- no biggie.

Ah gotcha. Yup, no big deal, it happens.

[allstar1579]

I was sorry to see the O's pass on Matzek last June, and discussions like this one do nothing to change my mind. It's not a knock on Hobgood, and there are certainly plenty of chances for it all to work out well, but I hope that if the O's get another chance at a talent of this caliber, they won't let it get away.

I was too. I mean, it happens, like I said, I think Jordan is a huge GB fan and Hobby was definitely a great choice if you are specifically looking for that (which isn't a bad idea in OPACY). I just really liked Matzek, like I really like Taillon and to a lesser degree, Cole this year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I was too. I mean, it happens, like I said, I think Jordan is a huge GB fan and Hobby was definitely a great choice if you are specifically looking for that (which isn't a bad idea in OPACY). I just really liked Matzek, like I really like Taillon and to a lesser degree, Cole this year.

One thing to consider...

Pitching is really starting to stack up in the lower minors of this organization, especially after last year's draft. A HS pitcher who comes into the system at this point will be at the tail end of a bunch of talented arms who will have the benefit of a year's experience or more. There will be some attrition from among Coffey, Hobgood, Wirsch, Beal, Frabizio, Martin, et al, but even so, a pitcher from the Class of 2010 will face a rough climb up to the top of the pecking order.

And the pecking order of the upper minors is not exactly shabby, either. A pitcher entering the system via this year's draft will have to be really, really good to even sniff MLB in this organization.

In other words, if the #3 overall is a pitcher, it better be an elite and advanced HS arm, or an impact college pitcher. Anyone less stands a chance of being buried in a numbers game.

[Stotle]

One thing to consider...

Pitching is really starting to stack up in the lower minors of this organization, especially after last year's draft. A HS pitcher who comes into the system at this point will be at the tail end of a bunch of talented arms who will have the benefit of a year's experience or more. There will be some attrition from among Coffey, Hobgood, Wirsch, Beal, Frabizio, Martin, et al, but even so, a pitcher from the Class of 2010 will face a rough climb up to the top of the pecking order.

And the pecking order of the upper minors is not exactly shabby, either. A pitcher entering the system via this year's draft will have to be really, really good to even sniff MLB in this organization.

In other words, if the #3 overall is a pitcher, it better be an elite and advanced HS arm, or an impact college pitcher. Anyone less stands a chance of being buried in a numbers game.

If it's Taillon, he immediately becomes the best prospect in the O's system. I don't think any of the arms BAL currently has would stand in his way. BAL is conservative, but he could probably start at HiA next year without any issue, and could be a ML arm by 2013.

[Arthur_Bryant]

If it's Taillon, he immediately becomes the best prospect in the O's system. I don't think any of the arms BAL currently has would stand in his way. BAL is conservative, but he could probably start at HiA next year without any issue, and could be a ML arm by 2013.

This is about what I surmised. It is what you'd want from a #3 overall. Ideally it would be great if he signed early enough to get his pro initiation out of the way with a short-season team, but that'll never happen.

Even so, I think that signability should be way down the list of considerations with this pick. Some teams, some seasons, it's a loss when you don't sign that first-round guy; even the comp pick doesn't fully make up for the hole in the talent flow. But with this team, this year, I would take that risk, because there's an even greater chance of diminishing the value of the pick by having the guy buried in the queue.

[Stotle]

This is about what I surmised. It is what you'd want from a #3 overall. Ideally it would be great if he signed early enough to get his pro initiation out of the way with a short-season team, but that'll never happen.

Even so, I think that signability should be way down the list of considerations with this pick. Some teams, some seasons, it's a loss when you don't sign that first-round guy; even the comp pick doesn't fully make up for the hole in the talent flow. But with this team, this year, I would take that risk, because there's an even greater chance of diminishing the value of the pick by having the guy buried in the queue.

I'd actually be fine with him signing late and shutting down. He threw a ton last summer and into the fall (though he shut down in early October after Team USA tourney and skipped Jupiter). He is ahead of the curve already, and should be able to tackle full season ball right off the bat. I'd consider jumping him right to Frederick -- his fastball could blow by hitters at LoA, as is, and his curve is already a fairly consistent plus offering.

[QBsILLEST1]

See, this is a very interesting discussion, why is Matzek considered a secondary guy? His secondaries as a whole from my understanding basically flashed plus, and projected to be plus down the road, but none were consistently plus pitches at the time of the draft. So with him, you are getting some projection in his stuff, but since his secondary pitches were basically close to being consistently plus, its a pretty safe bet for those pitches to become "plus".

With Matzek, he is one of the hybrid types of pitchers. To me emaning that he doesn't fall under one specific type of pitcher. He has a power fastball, but his other weapons include pitchability and plus secondary stuff along with command. IMO he is a lot like Brett Anderson, but without the GB rates....

With Taillon, you are getting a straight power guy, though his secondary offerings IMO will be better than Matzeks when all is said and done. Taillon's command isn't as good as Matzek's and nor does it project to be as good.

I also think that since Matzek saw a spike in his velocity so late in his senior season at HS, his prospect status didn't have enough time to catch up, but IMO Matzek was certainly one of the better prep arms to come through in the last decade. IMO the big thing keeping Matzek from being considered in the Porcello/Kershaw/Beckett group was that he didn't have 1 other BIG secondary pitch, but he does belong up there....Look at his ranking per BA on their top 100 list, that is big time respect....

[LookinUp]

This is about what I surmised. It is what you'd want from a #3 overall. Ideally it would be great if he signed early enough to get his pro initiation out of the way with a short-season team, but that'll never happen.

Even so, I think that signability should be way down the list of considerations with this pick. Some teams, some seasons, it's a loss when you don't sign that first-round guy; even the comp pick doesn't fully make up for the hole in the talent flow. But with this team, this year, I would take that risk, because there's an even greater chance of diminishing the value of the pick by having the guy buried in the queue.

Given what Stotle has said about the 2011 pick, it seems to be sensible for the O's to draft the elite talent and take their chances on signing him. If worst comes to worst and he doesn't sign, you always have the #4 pick next year, in a loaded draft.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Given what Stotle has said about the 2011 pick, it seems to be sensible for the O's to draft the elite talent and take their chances on signing him. If worst comes to worst and he doesn't sign, you always have the #4 pick next year, in a loaded draft.

Yes, and for this organization the interruption in the talent flow of pitching would have a negligible effect.

Of course all this is assuming that an elite position player isn't available at #3. That would change the equation, but I don't expect it to happen.

[allstar1579]

Yes, and for this organization the interruption in the talent flow of pitching would have a negligible effect.

Of course all this is assuming that an elite position player isn't available at #3. That would change the equation, but I don't expect it to happen.

Position or pitching, elite is elite.

[rhall]

Given what Stotle has said about the 2011 pick, it seems to be sensible for the O's to draft the elite talent and take their chances on signing him. If worst comes to worst and he doesn't sign, you always have the #4 pick next year, in a loaded draft.

It's better than nothing, but, IMO, it shouldn't affect who they decide to pick. The consolation pick the following year isn't protected, so you can't take a player worthy of the #4 pick. The fact that next year's class is loaded is a moot point.

Look at the Nationals, who had to settle for a college reliever with the 10th overall pick (Drew Storen). We'd get a player worthy of going in the 1st round (Storen had a good chance of going in the back half of Rd 1), and may even be able to convince someone like Hobgood or Tony Sanchez to sign for slot even though we don't have any leverage, but that lack of leverage keeps you from being able to take the elite, high impact prospects.

Looking at the #3 selection, I'm hoping for an elite talent to be drafted AND signed.