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Matt Harvey vs Ranaudo and other College Arms


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No threads devoted specifically to Matt Harvey and his resurgence which kinda surprises me. Of course, it is still very early and Harvey's biggest weakness over his college career has been inconsitency, so he needs to put together a very strong college season before he realistically will start hearing his name mentioned as a possible top 5 guy.

Over in another thread here Rhall posted some little tidbits from BA on Jesse Hahn and Matt Harvey. In Harvey's most recent game, he touched 97 MPH with his fastball 3 times(sat 93-96) and flashed a plus slider with good depth and bite. He also has a pretty good changeup that should end up being a solid average to slightly above average pitch. Other than being inconsistent, command has been his other nagging problem, and could end up becoming his only weakness in the future. I say this rather than his inconsistency because in the article I just read at PGcrosscheckers.com about Harvey, it said scouts noticed he adjusted his arm action this year and it now looks the way it used to when he was a true blue chip prospect(much more free and easy).

So, what does this mean? Nothing yet, lets see if he keeps it up, if he does, then based off of his pure stuff he is showing again, he should be the first college pitcher taken off the board. This is the same Matt Harvey that was coined the #1 pick basically 3 years before this draft, so it shouldn't be too difficult to imagine him regaining his former prospect status(or very close to it) and be the first college arm taken off the board.

But, thats not the end of this thread. I also wanted to compare this reinvigorated version of Matt Harvey to other collegiate arms eligible for 2010. With Ranaudo being hurt and out od commission, we have no truely elite collegiate arms in this draft, and even with Ranaudo healthy, I don't know if I would even consider him to be a truley elite collegiate arm. Matt Harvey is one of the few college pitchers who has the raw stuff to become an elite college arm in fairly short notice. What do you guys think, with a healthy(never injured) Ranaudo, Sale, Pomeranz and McGuire etc in the mix with Harvey(non 09 version) does this change the face of thigns for you?

Ranaudo

+ Massively projectable(in his stuff and in his frame)

+ Rapidly developing

+ Solid 3 pitch mix(above avg FB, +CB, Changeup should be atleast avg

+ Intangibles

- Injury risk/Durability

- Unless he starts adding MPH as he fills in, his FB will limit his ceiling

Harvey

+ #1SP raw stuff(+FB, flashes +SL, solid avg Changeup)

+ Still has great projection in his stuff and his frame

+ No injury history

+ #1SP ceiling, #2 projection(Some may project him a #1SP, but with his command, even if he becomes a consistent SP again, he will need to improve it)

- Inconsistent

- Command

Let me make sure everyone here understands, I am not saying Harvey is really in consideration for being picked this high yet, but he is well on his way.

Thoughts?

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lets say Harvey continues to regain what he once had and Ranaudo comes back healthy. If Harvey, Ranaudo, and Tallion are all sitting there at #3 who do you take?

Harvey has to regain and then improve. He was considered a top arm because standard improvement curve was taken into account. If he is 92-95 with command, plus breaking ball, cleans-up his consistency (especially with runners on) and shows an ability to go later without running up 120+ pitch counts, maybe I take him.

Otherwise, Taillon is the clear choice for me. Even if Harvey does all of that, I probably still take Taillon.

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lets say Harvey continues to regain what he once had and Ranaudo comes back healthy. If Harvey, Ranaudo, and Tallion are all sitting there at #3 who do you take?

Not answering for Stotle, but thats a very hard question to answer w/o knowing more. How is Ranaudo's health, and what exactly was wrong? How does he look now? Has Harvey remained consistent? What has he improved upon? Did all of these guys maintain their stuff through the entire season(which was one of the most impressive things about Taillon last summer)? And what are their asking prices?

It is just too hard to do right now without knowing about their progress through the entire season. Matt Harvey is the one who can vary the most. His command could improve, he could keep showing this plus slider(which may have projection in it too, he gets very good arm speed). He could maintain his recent consistency or he could revert back to his old form. If you want to imagine that 09 never happened, then my answer would be between Taillon and Harvey. It would then come down to price. At this point I am leaning toward Harvey(once again pretending that 09 never happened) for a few reasons. Closer to ML ready, safer investment financially and organizationally.

Now, back to real world reality, the dreadful 2009 season for Harvey really did happen and until I see consistency, if today is the draft he is my choice, but it could and probably will change by June...

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Taillon. FWIW.

It really is a no brainer if you consider that they are similar types of pitchers, about 3 years appart and yet, Taillon still has better raw stuff. So, it isn't hard to imagine how much higher of a ceiling Taillon really has than Harvey. But still, I wouldn't be upset if we did take Harvey.....

IMO the better question would be between Harvey(regains former prospect status) and Ranaudo(no health questions

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It really is a no brainer if you consider that they are similar types of pitchers, about 3 years appart and yet, Taillon still has better raw stuff. So, it isn't hard to imagine how much higher of a ceiling Taillon really has than Harvey. But still, I wouldn't be upset if we did take Harvey.....

IMO the better question would be between Harvey(regains former prospect status) and Ranaudo(no health questions

The problem with the question is that I doubt many here have a firm grasp of what is really being compared. What does "Harvey returning to form" really mean? Harvey out of high school was very talented, but he had plenty to work on. We aren't really interested in Harvey returning to that, we would be interested in Harvey realizing his potential.

If Harvey is at his best come June, there would be valid arguments for taking him over Taillon, particularly if your organization is one that tends to put a high amount of value in some of the studies relating to volatility of high school vs college pitchers. It wouldn't be my choice, necessarily, but I wouldn't knock someone making that argument.

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Here is one more for you guys. Harvey coming out of high school or Tallion coming out of high school? Not taking into account where Harvey is today. I remember the hype surrounding Harvey. Just looking for opinons and to generate discussion. I love that we have some very knowledgable posters around here when it comes to draft talk. Some great reads in this section. Thanks fellas.

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The problem with the question is that I doubt many here have a firm grasp of what is really being compared. What does "Harvey returning to form" really mean? Harvey out of high school was very talented, but he had plenty to work on. We aren't really interested in Harvey returning to that, we would be interested in Harvey realizing his potential.

If Harvey is at his best come June, there would be valid arguments for taking him over Taillon, particularly if your organization is one that tends to put a high amount of value in some of the studies relating to volatility of high school vs college pitchers. It wouldn't be my choice, necessarily, but I wouldn't knock someone making that argument.

I like how Harvey is pitiching this year and i think he is defiinitly a Round 1 or Supplimental pick, but he appears to be a reach at 1:3.

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