The Great Tillman Debate

[Frobby]

Let's stop right here.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2009.shtml

Hernandez had a (slightly) higher ERA, higher WHIP, a walk more per inning and averaged a third of an inning less. He also gave up 2.4 HR/9 versus 2.1 HR/9.

You cannot use Tillman's numbers from last season while completely ignoring Hernandez's.

So Tillman was slightly better in the majors that Hernandez last year. Why should we use a few innings in the spring when players are trying to work things out to make this decision?

Because young pitchers work on stuff in the offseason, too. Right now it appears that DH did a lot of hard work in the offseason and is poised to be a much better pitcher in 2010 than he was in 2009. It isn't as clear that Tillman is in that position.

Let's remember that the staff isn't just looking at a stats line. They are watching them pitch, in games and in bullpen sessions. They are in much better position to judge who is ready to help them. So, I'm not going to question their decision no matter which way they go.

[waroriole]

Because young pitchers work on stuff in the offseason, too. Right now it appears that DH did a lot of hard work in the offseason and is poised to be a much better pitcher in 2010 than he was in 2009. It isn't as clear that Tillman is in that position.

Let's remember that the staff isn't just looking at a stats line. They are watching them pitch, in games and in bullpen sessions. They are in much better position to judge who is ready to help them. So, I'm not going to question their decision no matter which way they go.

Well said. I don't see how anyone on here can take an unbending position on this, but it won't stop some folks.

[eddie83]

So, eddie83, you believe a small sampling of 15 innings should outweigh career stats?

I believe that Kranny, MacPhail and Trembley believe that based on how they look right now it is in the Orioles best interests for Tillman to start at AAA and DH in Baltimore. If Tillman doesn't look good enough at this time his career stats aren't going to help him.

Why is it impossible for DH to be a better option for Opening Day 2010 than Tillman. What did Tillman do in Baltimore last year to guarantee anything for this year? This isn't an argument of who has acomplished more so far it is about who the Orioles think is the better option right now.

[BillySmith]

I believe that Kranny, MacPhail and Trembley believe that based on how they look right now it is in the Orioles best interests for Tillman to start at AAA and DH in Baltimore. If Tillman doesn't look good enough at this time his career stats aren't going to help him.

Why is it impossible for DH to be a better option for Opening Day 2010 than Tillman. What did Tillman do in Baltimore last year to guarantee anything for this year? This isn't an argument of who has acomplished more so far it is about who the Orioles think is the better option right now.[/QUOTE]

You may be wrong there. It seems like people are arguing with you just for the sake of argument. You win.

[marty41]

I just got back from Sarasota. I saw the Thursday, Friday and Saturday games. There is no doubt in my mind that right now Hernandez should get the fifth spot. Friday Tillman looked lost. He seemed to have no idea what he was doing. He walked off the mound a lot. He was in trouble almost every inning, mostly of his own doing. The pace of the game was awful. On the other hand Hernandez looked poised and sharp. Cool as a cucumber striking out three in a row with the bases loaded. I have also noticed this poise several other times.

Don't get me wrong. Tillman has a tremendous upside and I am sure he will be a great pitcher some day. But Hernandez is older and certainly looks much more mature and under control. I expect both will spend a lot of time on the major league roster this year. But if I had to make a decision on who should start in the fifth spot I would pick Hernandez and let Tillman start at Norfolk. It might also serve as a good message to Chris that you have to earn your spot. Conversely, Hernandez to Norfolk sends the wrong message to Dave. Go out and compete, do better than the other guy, but you still get sent down.

Having said all that I think the Orioles need to have a very short leash on Guthrie. Give him three starts. If he fails, Tillman comes up.

[wildcard]

One of MacPhail's philosophies is "Don't make a decision until you have to."

I don't think this one will be made until both starters pitch their last ST game. No telling how that will turn out.

[amateurfan]

ST isn't about sample size. It's about scouting. Since none of us is there, most arguments in this thread are useless ramblings.

It also seems that most people are basing their judgments of these pitchers on what others have written about them.

[orioole28]

So, what happens if he makes the rotation and in his first 15 innings of the season, his breaking ball looks bad again?

What if 2012 came early?? You can say the same for anybody! Gee whiz, how ridiculous is this!!

[Arthur_Bryant]

It's a shame that this had to come down to a Tillman vs. Hernandez choice, but bringing in Millwood made it likely that there would be a conflict if either Hernandez or Berken came around.

It's a quandry. Talented young players often click suddenly, and when they do you want them to have a chance to bloom. OTOH sometimes talented young players don't click, and if you hand them a job ahead of time you could be left with a hole. Last year the O's probably brought in an easily-replaceable Eaton type. This year, that's not good enough, so they went after Millwood, and as a result one of Hernandez or Tillman, plus Berken, will probably be starting the season in Norfolk.

And it's no reflection on Tillman, but if Hernandez is poised for a breakthrough as an MLB starter, then you have to give that a chance to happen. The potential payoff is too great to ignore.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I believe that Kranny, MacPhail and Trembley believe that based on how they look right now it is in the Orioles best interests for Tillman to start at AAA and DH in Baltimore. If Tillman doesn't look good enough at this time his career stats aren't going to help him.

Why is it impossible for DH to be a better option for Opening Day 2010 than Tillman. What did Tillman do in Baltimore last year to guarantee anything for this year? This isn't an argument of who has acomplished more so far it is about who the Orioles think is the better option right now.

You "believe" that's what they believe? You mean you are arguing this strenuously without knowing what they believe? You haven't seen it yourself?

How can you argue that Hernandez is that much better an option when you have the same minuscule information as the rest of us?

[ccbird]

Because young pitchers work on stuff in the offseason, too. Right now it appears that DH did a lot of hard work in the offseason and is poised to be a much better pitcher in 2010 than he was in 2009. It isn't as clear that Tillman is in that position.

Let's remember that the staff isn't just looking at a stats line. They are watching them pitch, in games and in bullpen sessions. They are in much better position to judge who is ready to help them. So, I'm not going to question their decision no matter which way they go.

Beat me to it. Agreed. These coaches have been out watching and interacting with these guys everyday for over a month now. I think it's safe to assume the stats this spring won't have nearly as much influence on their final decision as their eyes and intuition. I know it's the nature of most fans to think they know what's best for their team but if the coaching staff feels Hernandez is the right man to start the year I'm not going to argue. They are more qualified in a much better position to make that judgement than anybody here.

[Sports Guy]

What if 2012 came early?? You can say the same for anybody! Gee whiz, how ridiculous is this!!

Step away from the keyboard and you will realize why that comment(the one you quoted) was made.

[eddie83]

You "believe" that's what they believe? You mean you are arguing this strenuously without knowing what they believe? You haven't seen it yourself?

How can you argue that Hernandez is that much better an option when you have the same minuscule information as the rest of us?

I trust the organization. I'm arguing that Tillman doesn't have a MLB resume to warrant anything being given to him. How can argue the Orioles are wrong?

Specualtion is that Tillman is going to start at AAA and there are many valid reasons why this makes sense. It is a matter of trust. I actually believe the Orioles have a solid braintrust that is going to make the right decision.

We are never going to improve in the standings handing jobs to players because of future promise.

[BaltimoreTerp]

I trust the organization. I'm arguing that Tillman doesn't have a MLB resume to warrant anything being given to him. How can argue the Orioles are wrong?

Specualtion is that Tillman is going to start at AAA and there are many valid reasons why this makes sense. It is a matter of trust. I actually believe the Orioles have a solid braintrust that is going to make the right decision.

We are never going to improve in the standings handing jobs to players because of future promise.

See, you're missing the point. You're basing a very strong "belief" on speculation.

What happens if Tillman gets the job?

[mweb]

I can't believe the weight being placed on ST performance and the way so many of you are acting like DH is some proven guy and Tillman isn't.

I think most, including myself are making a big deal out of DH finding that plus slider he's supposed to have that didn't show up much last year, and also showing better control. The addition of a sinker is nice as well although I profess to be unclear how much he's used it in games or how good it is.

I also think most realize this isn't as big of a deal as a few want to make it out to be.