The Great Tillman Debate

[NewMarketSean]

The best pitcher hasn't won...The best pitcher for a few innings won..There is a big difference.

The idea that Tillman will get his time is meaningless in this debate.

Tillman 2009:

5.40 ERA

5.4 K/9

3.3 BB/9

Hernandez 2009

5.42 ERA

6.0 K/9

4.1 BB/9

So far in ST, Hernandez has a much better K/9 and BB/9 rate than Tillman...so I dont know where you're getting the "Hernandez has been better than Tillman for a few innings" thing. So far their careers have been very similar: struggling with control and getting hit hard. It's their ST stats that set themselves apart now. Hernandez has control and Tillman doesn't.

[Sports Guy]

Roch comments - seems to me that all this hoopla was over nothing:

Roch also mentions that Hernandez and Berken have a chance to make the 12-man [bullpen] staff.

http://masnsports.com/2010/03/evening-shade.html

So, Tillman was in the rotation as of 4 days ago but one start by each changes his mind?

That's ridiculous.

[Sports Guy]

Tillman 2009:

5.40 ERA

5.4 K/9

3.3 BB/9

Hernandez 2009

5.42 ERA

6.0 K/9

4.1 BB/9

So far in ST, Hernandez has a much better K/9 and BB/9 rate than Tillman...so I dont know where you're getting the "Hernandez has been better than Tillman for a few innings" thing. So far their careers have been very similar: struggling with control and getting hit hard. It's their ST stats that set themselves apart now. Hernandez has control and Tillman doesn't.

Neither have much of a sample size in the majors to really even talk about.

So, look at age, upside, performance in the minors, etc....

Unless he gets hurt, Tillman getting less than 25 ML starts this year is just flat out stupid.

[TyCobb]

Tillman 2009:

5.40 ERA

5.4 K/9

3.3 BB/9

Hernandez 2009

5.42 ERA

6.0 K/9

4.1 BB/9

So far in ST, Hernandez has a much better K/9 and BB/9 rate than Tillman...so I dont know where you're getting the "Hernandez has been better than Tillman for a few innings" thing. So far their careers have been very similar: struggling with control and getting hit hard. It's their ST stats that set themselves apart now. Hernandez has control and Tillman doesn't.

2009 Tillman had a 6.10 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP

2009 Hernandez had a 6.61 FIP and a 5.60 xFIP

[Hank Scorpio]

2009 Tillman had a 6.10 FIP and a 5.18 xFIP

2009 Hernandez had a 6.61 FIP and a 5.60 xFIP

Both showed flashes of brilliance, but they were both pretty bad in 2009.

[TyCobb]

Both showed flashes of brilliance, but they were both pretty bad in 2009.

CT looked much better based on the MLB starts.

DH SL was ridiculously inconsistent. And his CH isn't nearly as good as CT.

[ChaosLex]

I'm looking forward to DH making the rotation, if only for the hilarity that's sure to ensue on this board.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm looking forward to DH making the rotation, if only for the hilarity that's sure to ensue on this board.

I'm rooting for DH, if only to prove SG wrong.

[Sports Guy]

Both showed flashes of brilliance, but they were both pretty bad in 2009.

Something not discussed enough is IP.

In half of Tillman's starts, he went 6+ IP.

Hernandez did it in 42% of his starts.

In 83% of Tillman's starts, he went 5 IP or more...The 2 he didn't? His first start and his last..when he should have even pitched.

Hernandez went 5 IP or more 68% of the time.

DH averaged 19 pitches per IP...Tillman..17.9.

Tillman had a better K/BB ratio but both were poor.

Both pitchers threw 61% of their pitches for strikes.(62% league average)

DH missed more bats...14% to 12%.

[Sports Guy]

I'm rooting for DH, if only to prove SG wrong.

And Tony, BA, most intelligent posters on here and pretty every scout in the country.

[Moose Milligan]

And Tony, BA, most intelligent posters on here and pretty every scout in the country.

Nah, just you.

[StottyByNature]

And Tony, BA, most intelligent posters on here and pretty every scout in the country.

However, "every scout in the country" can be a foolish group at times. No one predicted Bergesen to be this successful because he doesn't have the "wow" factor which Tillman has. I'm not necessarily saying that you or the scouts are wrong, I just think it is not this black and white.

If DH is developing a solid 2-seamer (I am a BIG believer in sinkerballers) I would not be surprised if he will be more consistent than Tillman right now. Hopefully Tillman will pass him in the near future but I would not be against him getting more seasoning in the minors.

[Frobby]

And Tony, BA, most intelligent posters on here and pretty every scout in the country.

I don't think Tony, BA or any scouts have been commenting on who is more ready to be a good major league pitcher this spring. They have commented on who is the better prospect long-term. I don't think anyone questions that Tillman has tremendous potential, and in the long run is likely to be a better pitcher than Hernandez. But that doesn't mean that he is ready to do so right now.

I'm pretty agnostic on this issue. I think Tillman, if given a spot, is going to be a decent 5th starter, though I think he's going to be inconsistent and struggle at times. If he starts the year in the minors, that's OK. It's also OK if Hernandez goes to the minors. I feel pretty confident that they will both pitch 100+ innings in the majors before the year is over.

[tvz1997]

And Tony, BA, most intelligent posters on here and pretty every scout in the country.

Lol. When Moose sets a steaming pile ablaze on your doorstep, you probably won't smell so great if you try to stomp it out. .

I think Tillman's age is a tie-breaker here. If he is going to struggle to find his control and yet the Os still see him as a huge part of the future, why have him struggle while burning major league service time? I really wish we hadn't been forced to call him up so early last year.

[bird watcher]

I am not sure how anyone can have a really strong opinion here if you haven't seen them pitch lately. A new pitch here or there or an improved command over a pitch can make a HUGE difference with these guys. If the guys in the organization that are watching the two of them progress everyday, feel that DH has improved enough to leapfrog Tillman FOR NOW, then I go with that.

This is a good thing really. What this probably means is that Guthrie is even more expendable than ever come deadline time. Lets just hope he is as good as he can be between now and then.