The Great Tillman Debate

[Sports Guy]

I think Hernandez's ceiling is higher than a 5 ERA, 150 IP guy. I could see him as a 4.25-4.75, 170-180 IP guy if he continues to develop. Obviously, Tillman's ceiling is much higher than that.

That wasn't my point...My point was that is around what I think DH is now...and it was also about the point of can DH be a ML starter.

And the fact that he is K'ing guys this spring shows he can do it in short stints...which most of us have always said...which is why most of think he is a BP pitcher.

[amateurfan]

Hernandez may be able to develop a sinker and sort of re-invent himself but he isn't on the same level as Tillman is.

As your point out, he turns 25 soon...No, that isn't old but it is old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter.

Do I think DH could be a 5ish ERA, 150 IP guy? Yes I do...Is that good enough for the back of the rotation? Sure.

But where is he on the pecking order? Matusz, Tillman, BB, Arrieta, Britton..Maybe he is next...MAYBE.

Do I want DH in the rotation over Guthrie? You bet I do. The Orioles missed the boat on dealing Guthrie as they were so worried with the state of the rotation and now, they may get nothing for him. But right now, with things the way they are, Guthrie needs to be in the rotation in hopes he can produce and we can move him.

My own list is Matusz, Britton, DH/Tillman, Arrieta.

Doesn't Hernandez have the best FB of them all? The most often used pitch? He has better control than Arrieta. Personally, I think you put too much stock into age. Development happens differently for everyone, and DH is not old. He should be playing in the majors this season all season long. Tillman should, too.

When it comes down to DH or Tillman for the rotation this year, I think ST is everything. Not in terms of numbers, but how they look. What are the coaches and scouts seeing? I think that's got to be more important than any other factor right now.

Tonight Tillman did not perform so well. It appears his control was not so good. I'm interested to see what VaTech has to say.

[Sports Guy]

Doesn't Hernandez have the best FB of them all?

No.

Personally, I think you put too much stock into age. Development happens differently for everyone, and DH is not old. He should be playing in the majors this season all season long.

You can think that but age is a huge factor.

When it comes down to DH or Tillman for the rotation this year, I think ST is everything. Not in terms of numbers, but how they look. What are the coaches and scouts seeing? I think that's got to be more important than any other factor right now.

How does a few weeks overcome a career thus far? That makes no sense.

Tonight Tillman did not perform so well. It appears his control was not so good. I'm interested to see what VaTech has to say.

He is going to have up and down control right now...However, the K's were there and he got more than twice the amount of grounders vs flyballs and that's extremely important.

Tillman isn't perfect...That's why he is the 5th starter right now.

[amateurfan]

No. You can think that but age is a huge factor.

How does a few weeks overcome a career thus far? That makes no sense.

He is going to have up and down control right now...However, the K's were there and he got more than twice the amount of grounders vs flyballs and that's extremely important.

Tillman isn't perfect...That's why he is the 5th starter right now.

Hold up a bit. You've gone too far.

Age is a huge factor. I did not say it wasn't. I said you over-value it. There's a difference.

These few weeks are so important because the two have had similar numbers over the past two years. This year should still be about putting on the best team possible. It should also be about giving time to the players that will help the team win.

The Ks were there tonight, but they haven't been all spring.

From what I've seen, DH has the best FB. It's a true swing and miss pitch. I haven't seen Arrieta's. Tillman's FB was flat and straight last year. It didn't give me a lot of confidence. My hesitation with Tillman has always been related to his age and size. The hype over Tillman concerns me because it (seemingly to me) has been about projection more than anything else. I don't see a ML fastball from Tillman. I see a big loopy, slow curve. I see a big body that on-lookers want to ascribe additional talent to, and an age that causes people to dream.

I want Tillman in the rotation. I also want DH in the rotation.

Which young pitcher has the best FB?

[Sports Guy]

Age is a huge factor. I did not say it wasn't. I said you over-value it. There's a difference.

No I don't...I don't think you are understanding how much mopre impressive Tillman has been, considering the several year age difference.

These few weeks are so important because the two have had similar numbers over the past two years

Again, age, upside, etc...

This year should still be about putting on the best team possible. It should also be about giving time to the players that will help the team win

Which is why Tillman is the no brainer choice.

The Ks were there tonight, but they haven't been all spring.

And?

From what I've seen, DH has the best FB. It's a true swing and miss pitch

Its a good pitch but lacks the consistent command right now.

Which young pitcher has the best FB?

Right now its probably Matusz because he has the best command of it...Ultimately, if command comes for all of them, Arrieta will have the best FB.

[crissfan172]

Hernandez's fastball is deceptive, but that wears off the first two times through the order. If he wants to pitch as a starter at the major league level, he need a fastball with more movement on it. Tillman's in the same boat, but his secondary stuff is better and he's working on a 2-seamer. Honestly, I'd rather have Berken in the rotation than Hernandez based solely off stuff.

[weams]

Hernandez's fastball is deceptive, but that wears off the first two times through the order. If he wants to pitch as a starter at the major league level, he need a fastball with more movement on it. Tillman's in the same boat, but his secondary stuff is better and he's working on a 2-seamer. Honestly, I'd rather have Berken in the rotation than Hernandez based solely off stuff.

It's an invisi-ball. And it is sizzling this year.

[byrdz]

Hey SG, I'm with you on DH over Guts. I wouldn't want to see DH displace Tillman, but Guthrie should be on a short leash, AFAIC.

[Arthur_Bryant]

As your point out, he turns 25 soon...No, that isn't old but it is old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter.

Mike Cuellar. Bob Lemon. Randy Johnson. Mike Flanagan. Hoyt Wilhelm. Mike Boddicker. Bob Gibson.

Three HoFers, and one soon to be. Seven Cy Young awards. More All-Star selections than I want to bother counting.

Each won at least 130 games from age 25 onward. Most of them won a lot more than that.

How many games did they win before their age 25 seasons?

[Sports Guy]

Mike Cuellar. Bob Lemon. Randy Johnson. Mike Flanagan. Hoyt Wilhelm. Mike Boddicker. Bob Gibson.

Three HoFers, and one soon to be. Seven Cy Young awards. More All-Star selections than I want to bother counting.

Each won at least 130 games from age 25 onward. Most of them won a lot more than that.

How many games did they win before their age 25 seasons?

Who cares?

This proves absolutely nothing.

There are always exceptions to the rule.

[Arthur_Bryant]

How many games did they win before their age 25 seasons?

Before their age 25 seasons they won 13 games.

Between them.

Mike Cuellar (0). Bob Lemon (0). Randy Johnson (3). Mike Flanagan (3). Hoyt Wilhelm (0). Mike Boddicker (1). Bob Gibson (6).

No, I'm not saying that DH is going to be any of these pitchers. But the idea that any pitcher with just a modicum of talent is getting too old to turn his career around is laughable.

Pitching is tough. Sometimes--often--pitchers don't really "get it" until they reach their mid-25s. In fact, the age 25 season very often is the one when they start to put it all together.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Who cares?

This proves absolutely nothing.

There are always exceptions to the rule.

SG, that is just pulled off the top of my head. I just spent about 10 minutes thinking of pitchers who didn't "get it" right away, sticking strictly to big name pitchers who had good to excellent careers.

If you want to open it up to pitchers who were merely good in their later careers, it becomes almost too easy.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Who cares?

This proves absolutely nothing.

There are always exceptions to the rule.

Phil Niekro (0). Gaylord Perry (4). Jim Bunning (8). Orel Hershiser (0). Lew Burdette (0). David Cone (5). Tim Wakefield (0). Allie Reynolds (0). Erik Bedard (0). John Tudor (0). Cliff Lee (3).

The last three just came to mind. All the rest are pitchers who won at least 180 games. If I went to a list of pitchers who have won at least 100 games, this could go on all night.

And what you said above of Hernandez--

he turns 25 soon...No, that isn't old but it is old to think he will all of sudden turn his career around and become something that most people don't think he is...a solid starter.

--could have been said about virtually all of them.

[crissfan172]

--could have been said about virtually all of them.

What couldn't be said of them is that their stuff is average.

[Arthur_Bryant]

What couldn't be said of them is that their stuff is average.

Whether it can be said of Hernandez depends on what you call "average" and how you define that. It's tough to have a objective discussion about something that can't be quantified.

If you're suggesting that Hernandez's ability to miss bats is no better than, say, half of the pitchers who have appeared in MLB over the past five seasons, well, I think you're wrong.

Would you call his minor league peripherals "average?"