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The Great Tillman Debate


Frobby

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One positive of giving Hernandez a chance in the rotation to the start the year is we'd get a better idea of what his role should be going forward. We already know what Tillman's role will be, and he'll get that chance this year regardless of who's in the rotation to start the year. Well unless there's no injuries and everyone pitches well, which would be a nice and very rare problem to have.

So if Hernandez looks a lot better now than he did last year, and better than Tillman, letting him carry that momentum into the season would be fine imo. If he shows he can be a good starter, then that's one more good young starter added to the cavalry. So next year we can have Matutz, BB, Tillman, Hernandez, and Arrieta/Erbe/Patton/Britton or a vet. If he struggles, than bring up Tillman and put DH in the pen.

So giving Hernandez a chance could turn out to be better for the present and the future. I'm failing to see the big negatives that it would bring as well.

Either way, I'll be fine with the decision.

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I hate quotes like this from Trembley, and they're the main source of any lack of confidence I have in him going forward.

What we know: it's spring training, and we've had Guthrie and Millwood getting shelled, and - until yesteday - DH had given up more hits than innings and a HR ever 5 innings. Suddenly, Tillman has a slow, rocky third inning and that's a "gamechanger"? Clearly, you want your pitchers to work quickly, but I think Trembley has a tendency to take something small (sample size) (see Wigginton hustling a double in ST last year for another example) and make some claim to finding profundity in it.

I'm glad DH pitched well. And I'm glad his slider - which was non-existent at the MLB level last year - is back. But this "holding" Tillman accountable thing by the O's is some ham-handed psychology. He's done nothing but work hard and excel. A week ago, Tillman gave up two hits in five innings versus that same Red Sox team. Of course, Trembley wasn't there, so I suppose that doesn't count.

All of that said, I think that Tillman is still pitching up in the zone too much, and he needs to command his FB better. But let's not act as if a handful of ST innings between DH and Tillman are a something substantial.

Agree on all accounts. For the posters who think competition and performance through spring training or other smallish sample sizes should be the way to sort through the young pitching, I hope you realize this would lead to a constant carousel of arms moving back an forth between AAA and the ML over the next 2 years. Pitcher struggles, gets sent down to a level he is already too advanced for, pitches well and is brought up to replace his replacement who has now hit a patch where he is struggling.

At some point, you look at your young players and you say "This is my first choice for filling this slot and we need to give him every chance to learn how to be a Big League player." If larger issues arise -- large enough that you realize his projection is changing, or he is unlikely to be able to figure out his issues at the ML level -- you send him down to work on things in a quieter environment (see Clay Buchholz, who still runs into some issues but is now at the point mentally that BOS believes he can tackle slumps and downturns without spiraling out of control).

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God only knows what Weaver would have said if he had blogger types reporting everything he said every day. Compared to the quantity of quotes we get today, Earl never said that much, nobody did. My theory is that anybody who gets quoted a lot will annoy folks somehow. Whether any of this matters or not pretty much depends on whether you think media quotes let us look into DT's baseball-soul vs. maybe they're just media filler...

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I don't think people realize that, ultimately, it's Andy MacPhail and not Trembley that sets the major league roster. And, I expect that MacPhail will listen to Trembley about which pitcher appears more ready to contribute at the beginning of the season, and balance that his plans for the team's present and future. If Tillman is not on this team, it will be because MacPhail has decided he isn't ready or needs to work on something to be more ready.

And, on top of everything else, it's not like David Hernandez is some no talent bum. He's a legitimate prospect, as well.

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Accordingly to Sun's Dan Connolly, Tillman looks to be heading to AAA with D.Hernandez taking the 5th spot in the rotation.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-os0328,0,2619053.story

Sounds like Connolly's opinion, as he states Trembley hasn't made a decision, but thought I'd post it. Connolly makes it sound like a done deal.

Connolly may be jumping to conclusion on the decision of Herandez over Tillman in the rotation. They both probably get starts this week with Millwood and Matusz set to pitch to the minor leaguers.

I think anything can happen in their last starts and it could determine who is in the rotation.

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Accordingly to Sun's Dan Connolly, Tillman looks to be heading to AAA with D.Hernandez taking the 5th spot in the rotation.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-os0328,0,2619053.story

Sounds like Connolly's opinion, as he states Trembley hasn't made a decision, but thought I'd post it. Connolly makes it sound like a done deal.

Sounds like that is going to happen. I think DH is the right decison at this point. I don't see why everyone is so bent out of shape about sending Tillman down. I do agree he would probably be okay up here, but at the same time a few more innings at AAA isn't going to hurt his development.

This really puts Guthrie on the hot seat IMO.

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I hate quotes like this from Trembley, and they're the main source of any lack of confidence I have in him going forward.

What we know: it's spring training, and we've had Guthrie and Millwood getting shelled, and - until yesteday - DH had given up more hits than innings and a HR ever 5 innings. Suddenly, Tillman has a slow, rocky third inning and that's a "gamechanger"? Clearly, you want your pitchers to work quickly, but I think Trembley has a tendency to take something small (sample size) (see Wigginton hustling a double in ST last year for another example) and make some claim to finding profundity in it.

I'm glad DH pitched well. And I'm glad his slider - which was non-existent at the MLB level last year - is back. But this "holding" Tillman accountable thing by the O's is some ham-handed psychology. He's done nothing but work hard and excel. A week ago, Tillman gave up two hits in five innings versus that same Red Sox team. Of course, Trembley wasn't there, so I suppose that doesn't count.

All of that said, I think that Tillman is still pitching up in the zone too much, and he needs to command his FB better. But let's not act as if a handful of ST innings between DH and Tillman are a something substantial.

Sample size be damned, spring training is where jobs are won & lost and it has been for a looooooooooooooong time.

I don't necessarily agree with it, but it's true.

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Connolly may be jumping to conclusion on the decision of Herandez over Tillman in the rotation. They both probably get starts this week with Millwood and Matusz set to pitch to the minor leaguers.

I think anything can happen in their last starts and it could determine who is in the rotation.

Connolly is jumping to extreme conclusions here.

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The Major Leagues isn't a dumping ground for prospects. You are trying to win games. How in the world do you know whether he is ready for the majors or not? Getting AAA hitters out doesn't equate with getting MLB hitters out. Using that logic why did Garrett Olson fail so bad?

Every year the same argument is used around here.

Team isn't expected to contend

equals prospects should be at the major league level to gain experience

You can't get better at the major league level handing jobs to people because they are higher ceiling prospects. People complained that Wieters should of been called up in 2008. He wasn't and put up modest numbers last year, that doesn't mean he isn't a big part of the team now.

How do you know Matusz is?

or David Hernandez?

To say Tillman isn't ready shows a real lack of understanding of how he looked last year and what he accomplished in the minors.

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Well, a handful of ST innings has shown us that Hernandez has got a plus ML breaking ball that he can throw for strikes. In that regard, I think those innings have been pretty significant.

So, what happens if he makes the rotation and in his first 15 innings of the season, his breaking ball looks bad again?

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How do you know Matusz is?

or David Hernandez?

To say Tillman isn't ready shows a real lack of understanding of how he looked last year and what he accomplished in the minors.

Looked to me like he gave up 15 home runs in 65 innings, but I'm no scout. He showed flashes of brilliance, but poor fastball command and he looked generally shaky out of the stretch.

He's definitely got work to do. More than Matusz or Bergesen IMO. I haven't seen DH pitch yet this spring, but I've heard from numerous places that he's pitching down in the zone consistently and his breaking stuff has been there as well.

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15 innings? A pretty short leash. However, without that breaking pitch, Hernandez is pretty much a one pitch pitcher. His time in the rotation would be short indeed. BUT there's no reason to expect his slider to disappear is there? He's pitching with a ML ball in ST. The only reason I recall for him not having his breaking pitch when called up was possibly the difference from the minor league ball to the major league ball. Whether that was the case (I'll assume it was) or it was something mechanical, DH seems to have figured it out. I can't think of a logical reason why he would lose it come the start of the season.

But yet 15 innings is all it is taking for people to want him in the rotation right now.

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Right. I get it. Do you feel there is some reason that he'll have the breaking pitch in the spring and he'll lose it when the season begins? If he doesn't have that breaking pitch, he won't last long in the rotation and I will not defend his having a spot in the rotation.

One easy reason would be that the stress/adreneline/excitement associated with the regular season games alters the consistency with which Hernandez throws the pitch. If he is squeezing harder than in Spring Training, it can alter the depth and bite on the pitch. If he overthrows at all and slips out of his mechanics, his release could be negatively impacted, which in turn can affect his command of the pitch.

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Whatever the reason, there is a good chance we will see Hernandez in the majors in April or later, and he will either have his good breaking pitch or he won't. If he does, I think he stands a good chance of being successful as a starter or reliever. If he doesn't he will fail in either role as well, IMO. I think we can all agree that right now he has it.

I have no dog in this fight -- I was just responding to your assertion that a breaking pitch wouldn't just go away. The seams are an interesting reason for his struggles last year, but I have to say it's uncommon for someone with a "plus" breaking pitch to have it completely disappear because of the ball. Maybe I'm way off, but I think it had as much to do with other mechanical issues as it did the ball -- if that's the case than I hope he is more relaxed and ready to go get at it this year. Definitely has a special arm.

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