Cafardo: Orioles have long been interested in AGon

[Hank Scorpio]

LOL why do you guys bother?

[hobbycars]

I understand what you're saying. But I think it's dangerously close to the kind of mindset that got us this decade-long losing streak. The reason we haven't won baseball games is because the moves we've made have been poor, which is why people focus on the moves.

Also, who wants to focus on the games at a time like this?

Hard to argue with that after watching tonight's game.

[Sports Guy]

Some stats, starting in 2006, when he become an everyday player:

WAR:

2006: 3.9

2007: 3.3

2008: 3.5

2009: 6.4

Obviously, 2009 was a career year.

UZR/150:

2006: 6.4

2007: -2.6

2008: -6.2

2009: 3.4

Pretty much average defensively...not quite as good as his rep says he is...but still, good enough.

HR/FB%, homers and slugging:

2006: 15.7%...24...500

2007: 13.5%...30...502

2008: 20.7...36...510

2009: 22.2%....40...551

So, the argument of Petco surpressing his homers is a poor one...His HR/FB% have been very high. And, as you can see, his 2009 number was another career high. Also, as you can see, as a result of that high HR/FB%, he saw his highest slugging % ever.

BB% and OBP:

2006: 8.2%...362

2007: 9%....347

2008: 10.6%...361

2009: 17.5%...407

So, he has an incredibly high walk rate in 2009,,much higher than he ever has...And what does his OBP do? It jumps over 40 points...That walk rate is likely to be sustained...ala Markakis from 2008 to 2009.

This obviously greatly hurts his overall worth if he is down to a 360ish OBP again...See the WAR difference.

Add all of this up and I don't see how you can justify handing out a monster contract AND trading 4-5 good young players for him.

[LookinUp]

Some pretty discernable trends in those numbers too.

[Sports Guy]

Some stats, starting in 2006, when he become an everyday player:

WAR:

2006: 3.9

2007: 3.3

2008: 3.5

2009: 6.4

Obviously, 2009 was a career year.

UZR/150:

2006: 6.4

2007: -2.6

2008: -6.2

2009: 3.4

Pretty much average defensively...not quite as good as his rep says he is...but still, good enough.

HR/FB%, homers and slugging:

2006: 15.7%...24...500

2007: 13.5%...30...502

2008: 20.7...36...510

2009: 22.2%....40...551

So, the argument of Petco surpressing his homers is a poor one...His HR/FB% have been very high. And, as you can see, his 2009 number was another career high. Also, as you can see, as a result of that high HR/FB%, he saw his highest slugging % ever.

BB% and OBP:

2006: 8.2%...362

2007: 9%....347

2008: 10.6%...361

2009: 17.5%...407

So, he has an incredibly high walk rate in 2009,,much higher than he ever has...And what does his OBP do? It jumps over 40 points...That walk rate is likely to be sustained...ala Markakis from 2008 to 2009.

This obviously greatly hurts his overall worth if he is down to a 360ish OBP again...See the WAR difference.

Add all of this up and I don't see how you can justify handing out a monster contract AND trading 4-5 good young players for him.

So, Jtrea..I am curious as to why you continue to ignore these stats?