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I'm starting to lose my optimism on the 'prospects'


McLovin

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I think most that are checking this forum would agree it's a fun time for a fan of the Orioles developmental teams. The daily box scores from A- to AAA are fun to check daily for the first time since, jeez, ever?

But what do they Orioles really have? Britton looks like an impact player. Bell might be good. But what else? Looking at a decent (on paper) Orioles staff and lineup start the season so horribly, it's really got me thinking about the new 'cavalry'.

The Orioles currently have a deep major league roster, with almost every spot occupied by a legit Major Leaguer for once. But there aren't many above average players. Is Snyder really going to be much better than Atkins/Huff/Millar? Is Bell going to be much better than Tejada? Is anyone outside of Britton going to be much better than Millwood and Guthrie?

Anyway, I'm starting to wonder about this farm system. Yes, it's deep. Yes, many of the guys we follow will play in the majors. But I'm starting to fear that they're just going to end up producing our own home-grown versions of the Jay Paytons and (current day) Kevin Millwoods - replacement level type players.

The pitching should be 'OK' for a long time - maybe better. Wieters might be a super-star. But I'm really starting to worry that while there are some future Major Leaguers in the system, only 1 or 2 will be difference makers. That's not enough.

Maybe this obvious to most, but I think in my case, I've been overly optimistic...

Thoughts?

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The 1983 World Series champions only had Ripken, Murray and Tippy Martinez on the All Star team. The 3 stooges held down the bottom of the batting order. That team had a very good starting rotation, but that roster had a lot of solid players who were good at their role but weren't star players. Roenicke and Lowenstein formed a great platoon, and you always had a good pinch hitter available late in the game. There are many different ways to build a winning team. Bullpens are much more important today, and it will be interesting to see if we can develop enough arms. Lebron, Perez, Erbe, Mickolio and a few others will be worth watching this year. I'm particularly interested in Lebron, but he is on the DL. We also have several late round high bonus pitchers from last year who could be interesting. On the hitting side, I would also keep an eye on Waring, Welty, Joseph and Widlansky.

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Are you really lumping Millwood with Payton? If any of our pitching prospects now in the minors have a Millwood-type career, that would be more than good enough for me.

I don't see any sure things among the position players, including Bell and Snyder. They both have a chance to be average or better major league starters, but there are no guarantees with respect to either one. Bell has more upside but I'm not confident he'll reach it.

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Are you really lumping Millwood with Payton? If any of our pitching prospects now in the minors have a Millwood-type career, that would be more than good enough for me.

I don't see any sure things among the position players, including Bell and Snyder. They both have a chance to be average or better major league starters, but there are no guarantees with respect to either one. Bell has more upside but I'm not confident he'll reach it.

I said 'current day' - the 4-5 ish starter on a good team - not the guy with 200 wins in front of him. Millwood would be #5 on the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays.

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And yet they traded him for Chris Ray.

Wrong way to look at that one, but that's OK.

Texas is stocked with pitching prospects and they needed to clear some money off the books to get a little younger. They did that by letting go of Millwood who was getting paid 12 million this year and used that money to pick up Rich Harden.

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Wrong way to look at that one, but that's OK.

Texas is stocked with pitching prospects and they needed to clear some money off the books to get a little younger. They did that by letting go of Millwood who was getting paid 12 million this year and used that money to pick up Rich Harden.

Well, I'd just assume a '#1 starter' would be able to drum up more than Chris Ray.

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Prospects are just that!

They are hit or miss! But' date=' I believe from going to minor league games now for 10 years, We are getting some great guys, NOW!!!

Our time is coming, I know, 12 years is a long time of losing. But hey, it could be alot worse.[/quote']

We could be Cub fans!:eek:

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I think we're seeing that there was a big gap between the guys who got called up last year and the "next class" whatever that class is. I am not even sure who is part of it, but it's nowhere near as good as the Reimold, Wieters & Matusz class.

To be fair, the vast majority of all rookie classes in major league history are nowhere near as good as Reimold, Wieters, and Matusz.

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I think most that are checking this forum would agree it's a fun time for a fan of the Orioles developmental teams. The daily box scores from A- to AAA are fun to check daily for the first time since, jeez, ever?

But what do they Orioles really have? Britton looks like an impact player. Bell might be good. But what else? Looking at a decent (on paper) Orioles staff and lineup start the season so horribly, it's really got me thinking about the new 'cavalry'.

The Orioles currently have a deep major league roster, with almost every spot occupied by a legit Major Leaguer for once. But there aren't many above average players. Is Snyder really going to be much better than Atkins/Huff/Millar? Is Bell going to be much better than Tejada? Is anyone outside of Britton going to be much better than Millwood and Guthrie?

Anyway, I'm starting to wonder about this farm system. Yes, it's deep. Yes, many of the guys we follow will play in the majors. But I'm starting to fear that they're just going to end up producing our own home-grown versions of the Jay Paytons and (current day) Kevin Millwoods - replacement level type players.

The pitching should be 'OK' for a long time - maybe better. Wieters might be a super-star. But I'm really starting to worry that while there are some future Major Leaguers in the system, only 1 or 2 will be difference makers. That's not enough.

Maybe this obvious to most, but I think in my case, I've been overly optimistic...

Thoughts?

I totally agree with this post. I know its not what folks want to hear especially given what's happening with the Orioles but teams really rise to the top when they have a core of stars. Maybe those guys are already on the Orioles (Matsuz, Weiters, Jones) but when I look at our system, I see a lot of marginal prospects and not much else. I'd rather have a weak system with one or two 5 star talents than ten 3 star guys.

All is not lost. We have a stack of guys who could ramp up (Bell, Tillman, Hobgood -- i guess) but we need to strike oil on a non top 5 draft pick every once in a while. Aside from Bedard -- who had maybe one 5 star season -- i can't remember the last time we hit the jackpot.

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