Blame MacPhail

[Mashed Potatoes]

What proof has he offered? We have no idea how much it would have taken the Orioles to sign Holliday because they never offered anything close to what St Louis did. Had we done that and he turned us down - well then you could say we would have had to offer him a lot more.

Ditto for Tex. You can say he didn't want to come here, but the lowest offer out of any team seriously pursuing him isn't going to change his mind. And I've said I would have offered 8/184 to land him. Would the Yankees have beaten that? Maybe, or maybe not. Would Tex have spurned the Orioles for less money? Maybe maybe not.

The Orioles never aggressively pursed either so we'll never know.

But to flat out say that the Orioles would have had to offer a lot more to land Holliday or that Tex would never come here is making an assumption based on no evidence.

I have no proof either, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong.

I think you're repeating your oft stated argument and not responding to my question.

So I get that you think SG hasn't offered any evidence. SG would likely say that given the larger market and vastly superior team it would take whatever the Yankees offered + some significant amount. I guess you're looking for a direct quote from Tex saying something along those lines. Of course if he did believe that he would never say it in public.

Then you say something like the Orioles never aggressively pursued Tex. What I'm asking is what are the more trustworthy sources you're basing that on? Negotiations are a largely political game with various players and varying motivations. The news providers are typically pawns in this game. I can think of multiple possible scenarios like,

-Tex always wanted to go to the Yankees and was playing the Orioles

-The O's knew this and decided not to play his game

-The O's didn't know this

-The Orioles were given a guarantee that they would have the last chance to top any offer, and that agreement was violated

-Tex wanted to come to the O's if they offered a competitive amount but the O's weren't willing to go that high

-MacPhail was ready to make a huge offer and was denied by PA, or vice versa

I could go on and on, and each scenario would require a different judgment and narrative of the players involved. What are you looking at when you come to certainty about the way things went down?

[JTrea81]

I think you're repeating your oft stated argument and not responding to my question.

So I get that you think SG hasn't offered any evidence. SG would likely say that given the larger market and vastly superior team it would take whatever the Yankees offered + some significant amount. I guess you're looking for a direct quote from Tex saying something along those lines. Of course if he did believe that he would never say it in public.

Then you say something like the Orioles never aggressively pursued Tex. What I'm asking is what are the more trustworthy sources you're basing that on? Negotiations are a largely political game with various players and varying motivations. The news providers are typically pawns in this game. I can think of multiple possible scenarios like,

-Tex always wanted to go to the Yankees and was playing the Orioles

-The O's knew this and decided not to play his game

-The O's didn't know this

-The Orioles were given a guarantee that they would have the last chance to top any offer, and that agreement was violated

-Tex wanted to come to the O's if they offered a competitive amount but the O's weren't willing to go that high

-MacPhail was ready to make a huge offer and was denied by PA, or vice versa

I could go on and on, and each scenario would require a different judgment and narrative of the players involved. What are you looking at when you come to certainty about the way things went down?

From media reports, we know the Orioles did not make the first offer to Teixeira and their offer was lower than all of the others previous and they never made a subsequent offer.

Just like the Orioles weren't the first offer for Matt Holliday and yet their offer was lower than Boston's and the Cardinals'.

When the Orioles have been aggressive, it has been pursuing a player like Garrett Atkins who they jumped on the minute he was available and offered him more than other teams.

As I've said, where was that effort for Teixeira and Holliday?

[MemorialStadKid]

First of all, there isn't anything intellectual going on here.

No ones arguing about sabermetrics here. And for the records, sabermetrics aren't an awful thing, they just help us understand the game better. I admit to not understanding them as much as some others do on here but just because you're not an expert in them doesn't mean you should put them down and try to say that those people have the "lock on all intellectual discourse." Hell, look at Frobby...he always brings up great points and hardly ever uses anything that I'd consider a hardcore sabermetric stat.

Hell, I can even see where JTrea comes from on certain things...however when you bring up ridiculous conspiracy theories and then duck and dodge posts that hold your feet to the fire, you deserve to get dumped on. When you take every given opportunity to hijack threads and espouse your theories and piss people off, you deserve to get dumped on. When you back out of threads after you've started a fire for posting your "feelings" and then not backing them up all the way, you deserve to get dumped on.

That, MSK, is not intellectual discourse.

Fair enough.

I want to share with you why I feel the way I do. When I first started posting here, I was Captain Optimism because I really thought things were going to turn around back in 2005.

As the years wore on, I noticed the same ol' thing from Angelos and the FO. Promises led to bad signings which led to similar results which led to excuses which led to more promises.

My posts began to take on a more negative tone to the point where it became out and out hatred of PA and the FO. I know this and I admit this.

However, I've observed that if you make a negative post, then suddenly the burden of proof is on YOU to prove that your negative assertion is correct as if the win-loss record, the offensive/defensive stats, our national reputation and the general apathy of the fan base wasn't enough evidence on its own.

If Trea believes PA hired MacPhail because he knew AM wouldn't press for big time signings, so what? It might be a "conspiracy theory" but it doesn't necessarily fly in the face of the results and PAs typical behavior.

Much of what we believe are theories (in terms of FO behavior and decision making) until they are confirmed by legit news sources or from a direct press release from the warehouse. So because Trea says things that can't be immediately verified or substantiated by quantifiable data doesn't mean that his points are invalid.

Is the idea of signing a big bat such a bad one? Especially with what we've been seeing?

Is the idea of signing a couple of TOR starting pitchers a bad one?

Is the idea of having a GM that isn't afraid to pursue premium talent with a non-token contract a bad one?

These are the three general ideas I've seen from Trea over the last couple of years. And yes, he has been rather upset since the Tex fiasco but can you blame him?

I don't know is Trea is a "real" Orioles fan or not. I'm not his advocate or defender. All I do know is that he makes some good points about the lack of movement from our FO when they could sign guys that would make a positive contribution to our team.

We could have signed John Lackey. We could have attempted to sign Halladay. We could have made a good trade deal for AGon (and we still can) but we didn't.

Some here think trading for AGon would destroy our farm system and kill our chances at developing talent for the future and others believe that having a winning culture now will spearhead a positive shift towards contention. Those are both valid arguments and both deserve consideration.

What's happened here is that its become the Trea club (signing free agents) vs. the Vatech/BTerp/Rschack/Etc. club (do things when the "time is right) and that's not fully representative of the scope of our reasoning here.

I've been put into the "negative" group just because I don't like AM and I hate PA. People have made snarky comments to me without actually reading what I've written.

But what's hilarious is that when people stop and actually read what I've said, folks write to me "gee, you're not a bad guy, and you have some decent ideas."

That's what I mean when I say that there's a groupthink mentality here where a few guys claim someone is "bad news" or "makes worthless posts" and then a bunch of others jump on that bandwagon without any careful analysis with their own eyes.

That's what really sucks about this place sometimes.

MSK

[Mashed Potatoes]

From media reports, we know the Orioles did not make the first offer to Teixeira and their offer was lower than all of the others previous and they never made a subsequent offer.

I guess here is where we diverge. I've found that media reports about a free agent recruiting process illustrate a speculative slice of a larger story. Even when they get direct quotes from the people making the decisions, those quotes are designed to achieve a particular goal, and that goal is rarely to inform the public about the truth of what is going on.

I think you can make an argument that the actual actions taken are more telling than the reports about what actions were taken. The only undeniable action we can discuss is the ultimate decision from the player/agent about where they go, what offers were made at what time and for what amount are far more speculative.

The Orioles on multiple occasions have reportedly made the largest offer for a free agent only to be spurned (like Konerko) for a lesser offer. That is an identically opposite happening that would lend credence to SG's theory. I'm not interested in discussing Konerko, I'm in the conversation about the validity of the opinions we boldly state here on the OH. I remain unconvinced that the proof behind your opinions are of greater quality than say the opinion SG stated in this thread.

[tilgaham]

No.

Not even going to bother to read the thread.

[MemorialStadKid]

From media reports, we know the Orioles did not make the first offer to Teixeira and their offer was lower than all of the others previous and they never made a subsequent offer.

Just like the Orioles weren't the first offer for Matt Holliday and yet their offer was lower than Boston's and the Cardinals'.

When the Orioles have been aggressive, it has been pursuing a player like Garrett Atkins who they jumped on the minute he was available and offered him more than other teams.

As I've said, where was that effort for Teixeira and Holliday?

Why do all the "positive" folks duck these ideas?

Once again, there are far too many AM and PA apologists out here.

MSK

[JTrea81]

I remain unconvinced that the proof behind your opinions are of greater quality than say the opinion SG stated in this thread.

Well those are your feelings and you are entitled to them. I'm not going to call them wrong.

I'm just saying neither SG or I are wrong. We are both conjecturing and happen to have a different opinion based on what we do know about each situation.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Well those are your feelings and you are entitled to them. I'm not going to call them wrong.

I'm just saying neither SG or I are wrong. We are both conjecturing and happen to have a different opinion based on what we do know about each situation.

I think that's a cop out. Again, I'm discussing what you consider to be an acceptable burden of proof and why your conjecture is more valid in one instance than another's conjecture. That is the basis of arguments otherwise there's no reason for us to even respond to one another.

What do you think about my thoughts on the "truth" of media reports and how SG was relying on the same "proof" you were?

[amateurfan]

That, MSK, is not intellectual discourse.

What is intellectual discourse? Is it autonomous?

[Mashed Potatoes]

Well those are your feelings and you are entitled to them. I'm not going to call them wrong.

I'm just saying neither SG or I are wrong. We are both conjecturing and happen to have a different opinion based on what we do know about each situation.

BTW Trea, people may say a lot of things about you, but your response time to my posts has been top notch! My post before the last I completed editing like 90 seconds after posting, and your response was already up. Do you have assistants to help you maintain such a high pace?

[JTrea81]

BTW Trea, people may say a lot of things about you, but your response time to my posts has been top notch! My post before the last I completed editing like 90 seconds after posting, and your response was already up. Do you have assistants to help you maintain such a high pace?

No, just some time on a lazy Sunday...

To answer your previous question. I do think the media doesn't report the whole story, but given the sentiment of Baltimore fans and their wanting a big bat for this team for a long time, what benefit would it be for MacPhail to hide if the Orioles were more aggressive in pursuing that talent?

They certainly didn't hide their interest in Atkins...

[Sports Guy]

Manny Ramirez, Carlos Beltran, Alex Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Barry Bonds

Pujols wasn't a FA contract and was given a contract at a young age.

Bonds FA deal wasn't huge.

And the other guys? The elite of the elite...Outside of MAYBE Tex, we haven't seen those players available over the last few years.

But now you are getting it...You pay premium prices for the true elite...Not the solid..which is what you want to do.

[Mashed Potatoes]

No, just some time on a lazy Sunday...

To answer your previous question. I do think the media doesn't report the whole story, but given the sentiment of Baltimore fans and their wanting a big bat for this team for a long time, what benefit would it be for MacPhail to hide if the Orioles were more aggressive in pursuing that talent?

They certainly didn't hide their interest in Atkins...

What benefit would it be to MacPhail to admit he got played by Boras and was promised something that effected how he pursued Tex and then wasn't delivered?

It occurred to me like the O's showed interest in Tex throughout and admitted it, more so than Atkins so I don't get that comparison.

[Sports Guy]

Well those are your feelings and you are entitled to them. I'm not going to call them wrong.

I'm just saying neither SG or I are wrong. We are both conjecturing and happen to have a different opinion based on what we do know about each situation.

The difference is this...I have a consistent, logical and common sense approach to my answer...You have a "i hate AM" venom answer.

You can not sit there and continue to hammer on this team's lack of talent and direction and then sit there and say a "premium" FA(which Holliday was not) would have signed here for the same or less money. It just isn't logical.

[tilgaham]

Pujols wasn't a FA contract and was given a contract at a young age.

Bonds FA deal wasn't huge.

And the other guys? The elite of the elite...Outside of MAYBE Tex, we haven't seen those players available over the last few years.

But now you are getting it...You pay premium prices for the true elite...Not that solid..which is what you want to do.

To be fair, Miguel Cabrerra was available (at less than "elite" asking price) for a time this offseason. Few here wanted him because of his quote character issues unquote.

Fast forward to April and he has sworn off alcohol and is tearing it up.