Keith Law on Machado

[Hutman]

Posted over the weekend by Keith Law, makes the discussion for Machado in the top 5 very interesting. There is more to the story, but since its insider content I just posted the key paragraph.

"Machado has a 70 arm and good hands at shortstop; there's some sentiment that he'll outgrow the position, as he's going to fill out significantly over the next 10 years, but he has the tools to be a plus defender there and I imagine it'll take a lot to convince the team that drafts him to move him to third base. He will need help with his footwork and needs to quiet down his game, as he has the habit of many talented teenagers of trying to make the flashy play. He'd be a top-five talent in just about any draft year as a potential star on both sides of the ball. After Bryce Harper he's the best player in this year's draft pool in my eyes. He's committed to Florida International but should never put on that uniform."

I've been leaning toward a pitcher at # 3, but Machado seems like a rising talent.

[DocJJ]

I've always felt Machado will get the nod at #3... unless Angelos meddles again and makes us take Pomeranz because he likes college arms.

[Greg Pappas]

I've been big on Machado before the season began, and am even more pleased with his development as of now. While it's still early, I hope that he has a great year and gives us a lot to consider at #3.

[Say O!]

Got to be impressed reading such a glowing review from Law, who's generally not effusive in his praise.

Still does not solve the shortstop problem for the next 3-4 years, as it would probably take Machado that long to move up the ladder.

[ChaosLex]

I heard someone recently refer to him as AROD lite. Any truth to this?

[Stotle]

I heard someone recently refer to him as AROD lite. Any truth to this?

I've only seen him once -- was a very solid player but "elite" didn't jump out at me. Could have caught him on an off day, though.

[allstar1579]

I heard someone recently refer to him as AROD lite. Any truth to this?

Don't really see it. Like him, but about as much as Green last year. For some reason I was more drawn to Y. Cabrera this year, but that was a while back too.

[mex-bird]

I have been told he has technical flaws in his swing, really not worthy of 1:3.

[Stotle]

One thing I am pretty sure about - he's going to get strong and he has the chance to hit for some real power. Good hands and arm strength, so he should be a left-side guy either way, too.

[Oriolesfan8]

Law's top 5 as of now:

1) Bryce Harper

2) Manny Machado

Then, with less separation:

3) Drew Pomeranz (Col LHP)

4) Jameson Taillon (HS RHP)

5) Karsten Whitson (HS RHP)

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5129340

Sounds like he sees a significant drop-off after those 5. Thoughts?

[Oriolesfan8]

Law's top 5 as of now:

1) Bryce Harper

2) Manny Machado

Then, with less separation:

3) Drew Pomeranz (Col LHP)

4) Jameson Taillon (HS RHP)

5) Karsten Whitson (HS RHP)

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5129340

Sounds like he sees a significant drop-off after those 5. Thoughts?

I'm not a BA subscriber, but based on a recent chat, sounds like their current top 5 is:

1) Harper

2) Taillon

3) Pomeranz

4) Whitson

5) Covey

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/chat/2010/269868.html

(top 5 is most of the way down)

[ChaosLex]

Law's top 5 as of now:

1) Bryce Harper

2) Manny Machado

Then, with less separation:

3) Drew Pomeranz (Col LHP)

4) Jameson Taillon (HS RHP)

5) Karsten Whitson (HS RHP)

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=5129340

Sounds like he sees a significant drop-off after those 5. Thoughts?

I saw that earlier today. Interesting comment from Law about Taillon, saying that hitters "see" his fastball. Does that mean there's little to no movement? If so, I'm not sure how ecstatic I'd be about drafting him #3 this year...

[Arthur_Bryant]

I saw that earlier today. Interesting comment from Law about Taillon, saying that hitters "see" his fastball. Does that mean there's little to no movement? If so, I'm not sure how ecstatic I'd be about drafting him #3 this year...

I don't know for sure what Law meant, but some pitchers (maybe most) inadvertently give hitters a peek at the ball during the delivery. Sometimes it's when they swing their arm too far behind their back. Sometimes they flash it when they're bringing the arm through to the release. Sometimes both. Either way, it makes the hitter's job a lot easier because it provides a timing cue and allows the hitter to be ready to visually pick up the ball at the moment of release.

OTOH a really deceptive pitcher will manage to hide the ball from the hitter until the instant it's released. In fact, some pitchers manage to hide nearly their entire arm through the stride phase. When you can do this, it's almost as good as moving the mound five feet closer to the plate.

To what extent any of this applies to Taillon, I have no idea. But it's the first thing that comes to mind when I read Law's comment.

[rhall]

I saw that earlier today. Interesting comment from Law about Taillon, saying that hitters "see" his fastball. Does that mean there's little to no movement? If so, I'm not sure how ecstatic I'd be about drafting him #3 this year...

That is an interesting comment... I don't think it's about the movement of his fastball. All the scouting reports I've read have said that he has good life on his fastball. BA describes it as having "explosive life". If Law thinks that hitters are "seeing" his fastball, based on this isolated comment I'd say he's talking about a lack of deception in his pitching motion.

Edit: Just saw Arthur Bryant's comments... I agree. If Law's comment is about a lack of deception, it's probably that Taillon shows the ball early, making it easier for the hitter to pick the ball up out of his hand.

[allstar1579]

That is an interesting comment... I don't think it's about the movement of his fastball. All the scouting reports I've read have said that he has good life on his fastball. BA describes it as having "explosive life". If Law thinks that hitters are "seeing" his fastball, based on this isolated comment I'd say he's talking about a lack of deception in his pitching motion.

Edit: Just saw Arthur Bryant's comments... I agree. If Law's comment is about a lack of deception, it's probably that Taillon shows the ball early, making it easier for the hitter to pick the ball up out of his hand.

Might just be something about his release point. Have you seen him live Stotle? Everything I've seen is video and you just can't get the same read from that.