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Seems like MacPhail "gets it"


Hank Scorpio

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I'm not as extreme as SG on this, but I mostly agree with him. We don't need to trade Brob and Bedard, but I support trading them, and if we can't extend Bedard, we really need to trade him. We need to focus on getting more young talent.

The only way I'd be ok with not rebuilding is if we can put together a legit contender next year, which would be very difficult to accomplish.

I just don't see how we can compete long term.

That is what i want. I don't want a one year scenario where we can compete and then that's it.

The only guy who may be able to help us long term is AROD and really, even if we could get AROD, i would still look to get younger around him and if you do that, he isn't going to want to come here anyway.

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Again, if you get rid of these guys all you are going to do is sign more mediocre vets to replace them because that is all we will be able to do to replace them.

I think you are right that McPhail will try to make moves. I also think you are ignoring how strongly he talks about pitching being the #1 priority. It is his words not mine.

"If there is one thing that the last two months have brought home, you have no chance in this division if you don't pitch well," he said. "When I first came here, I said that pitching is 85 percent of the game. In this division, it might be 90 percent. When Erik Bedard started, we were 19-9. Good pitching is going to thwart real good teams. It is my belief now that this franchise is really going to have to focus on pitching."

That does not sound like a guy that is going to trade Bedard without trying everything possible to sign him. Even waiting a year until the next off season. That will give McPhail some time to improve the team.

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I just don't see how we can compete long term.

That is what i want. I don't want a one year scenario where we can compete and then that's it.

The only guy who may be able to help us long term is AROD and really, even if we could get AROD, i would still look to get younger around him and if you do that, he isn't going to want to come here anyway.

Well like I said, it would be very difficult to accomplish anyway, so really the only realistic option is to rebuild.

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Who would have guessed it?

Rshack makes a post that has nothing to do with baseball!

This was such a better place when you were gone.

It's not about baseball, but neither is your habit of diss'ing anyone who doesn't buy your extreme premise. If you didn't do that about 100 times per week, we'd prolly have more people posting around here. And thanks for the negative rep points. I especially liked your comment about how I "take up valuable space for the real posters". Evidently, "real posters" refers to only to folks who wish to discuss trades all the time and/or spread ugly vibes by using combative insults and soundbite logic in lieu of actual content. Funny how you can dish it out, but you just can't take it.

What's even more hilarious is that you did indeed respond to Roy by assuming that he just doesn't understand. (Gee, I wonder how I knew that was gonna happen? Who could have guessed?)

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Sorry Wild Card, I just noticed that I posted about the same thing you did.....

"If there is one thing that the last two months have brought home, you have no chance in this division if you don't pitch well," he said. "When I first came here, I said that pitching is 85 percent of the game. In this division, it might be 90 percent. When Erik Bedard started, we were 19-9. Good pitching is going to thwart real good teams. It is my belief now that this franchise is really going to have to focus on pitching."

I think this is the most telling quote in the article. Because of this, I can also see McPhail hanging on to Bedard. If I had to guess what his plan will be, I would guess that he tries the following....

:Trade Tejada and Cabrera for the best combination of young pitching prospects offered.

:Try to sign Bedard long term. If he can't get it done this offseason, I think he will wait until next offseason hoping that Bedard will a new outlook on the franchise and want to sign an extension.

:Try to sign Tori Hunter to replace Tejada's bat

:Try to release and or trade the following... Mora, Gibbons, Payton

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It seems like everyone expects MacPhail to tear apart the team, make all these trades now, and totally rebuild it this off-season. I suspect that the rebuild will be done gradually over the course of the next 2-3 years beginning with a trade or two this off-season, a FA signing or two, and cutting some of the dead wood from the roster. I fully expect Tejada to be traded, just as I fully expect Roberts and Bedard to still be here next year.

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It seems like everyone expects MacPhail to tear apart the team, make all these trades now, and totally rebuild it this off-season. I suspect that the rebuild will be done gradually over the course of the next 2-3 years beginning with a trade or two this off-season, a FA signing or two, and cutting some of the dead wood from the roster. I fully expect Tejada to be traded, just as I fully expect Roberts and Bedard to still be here next year.

That's actually what I was thinking too. A gradual rebuild makes more sense if you're looking to build long term and it would be a little less shocking to the entire organization and fanbase. I think cutting some of the dead wood alone improves this club in huge ways. I think Miggy will be gone before next year and I'm curious to see if DCab will be gone too. I also wonder if the upcoming coaching changes could make a difference because sometimes all a player or pitcher needs to have is that type of change to make some good improvements to their playing and performance (not that I want to keep all the dead wood or anything though).

I do have a random question. Aren't there other ways to sign minor league prospect type guys without trading away your own guys? Somehow, Wayne Krivsky keeps finding these good guys for the Reds without giving away the entire farm system and I have no idea how he keeps doing that without causing huge holes anywhere. :eek:

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That's actually what I was thinking too. A gradual rebuild makes more sense if you're looking to build long term and it would be a little less shocking to the entire organization and fanbase. I think cutting some of the dead wood alone improves this club in huge ways.

That's been the thinking in recent years but it seems like there is always plenty of dead wood to replace the dead wood that we get rid of. I expect a rebuild to be more gradual as well although I do think a more agressive approach would be expedite the process.

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That's been the thinking in recent years but it seems like there is always plenty of dead wood to replace the dead wood that we get rid of.

That's it, in a nutshell.

I expect him to make a few changes per year for a few years. I think his first priority will be on getting the organization right and on making enough moves this off-season to establish a convincing tone of change. While there appears to be about 50 different definitions of "Blow it up", I think AM will disappoint the more radical of these, while doing what the more moderate folks have been wanting. If 0 = "stay attached to what you've got" and 100 = "trade everydamnbody and start over", I think he'll spread a score of 60 or 70 over a small number of years. But only time will tell...

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I would like to see us utilize the Rule V draft this year, to either pick up a back up catcher, a back up outfielder, or a longman or 6th/7th reliever.

I dont think there are any steals like Hamilton but there is always going to be some talent out there.

Mike MacDonald from the Blue Jays - groundball machine but struggles vs. lefties. He might be able to work with that with Dunn/Mazzone. Doesn't really give up HRs either. I've mentioned him before...

Plus I work with his father... :)

http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Mike%20MacDonald&pos=P&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453973

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I would like to see us utilize the Rule V draft this year, to either pick up a back up catcher, a back up outfielder, or a longman or 6th/7th reliever.

I dont think there are any steals like Hamilton but there is always going to be some talent out there.

I hate bringing up the Reds all the time (I'll try to stop doing that so much but they do have similarities with the Orioles!), but they actually did a really good thing this past year with that draft that the O's should think about this year. The Reds ended up with two Rule V guys and BOTH of them will probably be with the club for a good long time after the way they performed this season. In addition to Josh Hamilton, they also got Jared Burton, a relief pitcher of all things. He started off the year kind of slow but totally took over pitching that horrible 8th inning that gave the Reds fits all season and established himself as an awesome set up guy and possible future closer with his performances in the second half of the season. If the O's can do something smart in the Rule V this offseason, they could find someone like him or even another talent similar to Josh Hamilton. :)

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If we just dealt our best pitcher and arguably our best veteran player along with a guy who hit nearly 20 Home Runs with nearly 80 RBI's after missing a month of the season..do you really believe that even with some quality prospects...we can be that much better someday..do you really???

I can see moving Tejada, Cabrera and trying to get out from under some contracts(Gibbons and maybe Mora) but the liklihood of us making all of the moves above sounds desperate..and panic button stuff. No way we make all those moves...unless Macphail is a complete idiot. I GUARENTEE WE WONT MOVE BEDARD..AND ROBERTS..I GUARENTEE IT..

Sports guy....ask your doctor and see what Paxil can do or you!

I'm sorry Roy, but I'm of the mindset that everyone must go. We're obviously not winning with guys like Tejada, Bedard, and Brob, so what good does it do us to hold onto them?

Make no mistake, I'd love to keep Bedard, which is why I hope they offer him the 4/48 extension that BigBird mentioned earlier this week. However, if he should decline this offer (which he likely will), you need to sell high.

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I gotta side with rshack on this one.

I think that people get a little bit caught up in the sound bite logic a bit too much. "Blow it up" seems to take on an entirely new meaning than you would ever think. If you were to ask random fans if they're teams will "blow it up" in the offseason, and it was a team like the Red Sox, they'd laugh at you. But if you asked them if they were planning on doing this:

objectively gauge the state of the franchise, trade away any and all valuable pieces in return for the right package that'll help to move forward, while putting emphasis on undervalued players and market inefficiencies, refusing to sign stopgap players, religiously staying away from signing players because they just happen to be available that offseason and we have a hole there, steadfastly avoiding signing free agents that will sap the team of draft picks, and constantly looking to invigorate the whole organization's future by acquiring talented youth

http://www.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?p=1045166&highlight=objectively+shorthand#post1045166

Would any of them say, "No, my team won't do that." That goes for any team out there. Whether it be the White Sox, Pirates, Twins or Red Sox, every fan would say that's a great mission statement for any team.

Saying that you want your brass to look at your team objectively is not unique. Sorry, but it's not.

Every team is willing to trade pretty much any guy in the right deal. Because, well, the right deal is the right deal. You could argue that some guy are so valuable that no "right deal" exists and I would probably agree with you, but everyone is willing to deal guys in the right deal.

And most teams try to stay away from signing a guy that will cost them a draft pick unless they are losing some in free agency so it's a wash, like how the Red Sox typically operate. But plenty of teams like the Twins try to do otherwise.

Every team tries to draft well. I mean, that's the biggest given in this whole thing. How does that fall under a "blow up" classification?

And of course every team tries to acquire talented youth. Whether it be a big market team like the Red Sox with Jacoby Ellsbury or the Yankees with Joba Chamberlain.

This school of thought is not unique. It's actually want anyone would call common sense. Saying that's a "blow it up" scenario is just crazy. Blow it up implies a firesale. If you said that any team blew it up over the offseason you'd get looked at like you were crazy.

What the Florida Marlins did twice in recent memory, that's a blow up.

What the Minnesota Twins, Oakland A's, LA Angels, Milwaukee Brewers San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, and Arizona Diamondbacks did in recent memory? Certainly not.

I guess you could argue the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland Indians, and Arizona Diamondbacks did, but they really didn't.

A widespread misconception is that he acquired Travis Hafner in a blockbuster deal. Last I checked, Ryan Drese and Einar Diaz don't exactly count as "blockbuster." Neither of them played in baseball in 2007, maybe they work at Blockbuster currently.

Bartolo Colon was one big deal. One. Trading away one bigtime guy doesn't classify as a blow up scenario. In winter of 2004, the Oakland A's traded away two aces. Nobody would've said they blew it up.

The Tigers have ran themselves very in my humblest of opinions. A good steady combination of free agents and development of young arms. Lot of homegrown talent.

What's the combination behind most good teams? Homegrown talent. What have just about none of them done? Traded away a ton. The Marlins traded away a ton last year and everyone expected them to win 40 games and they didn't and a lot of people were impressed. They only won 76 games though. Just throwing that out there. They won 70 this year. Again, just throwing that out there.

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