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Roy Halladay must think he has died and gone to heaven


Frobby

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Roy Halladay is enjoying his move to the National League, to the tune of 4-0, 8.25 innings per start, 0.82 ERA. He must think he has died and gone to heaven after a career in which literally 25% of his starts were made against the Yankees and Red Sox, now going to a weaker league where he gets to pitch to the opposing pitcher several times a game and where the best hitting team in the league is the one he plays on. 25 wins is not out of the question here.

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The move has to make him a legitimate candidate for 300.

It's a bit early to tell; while he has a nice winning percentage, he had 148 wins coming into his age-33 season. If he has a breakdown or a series of breakdowns during the next few years, the idea becomes a lot more far-fetched. He's had his nicks here and there (the Kevin Mench incident could happen to anyone, though); throw in another season like '04 a time or two, and there could be problems. If Halladay averaged 25 wins over the next six seasons (including '10), he would still be two wins shy of 300. To reach the mark before his age-40 season he would have to average 22 wins over the period 2010-2016.

Could he reach 300? Perhaps. When he has had a full slate of starts ('02-'03, '06-'09), he's averaged 18.3 wins per season on an AL East squad. He's mown down his NL competition so far, but I'd sit back and see if the competition adjusts or he physically suffers. I don't think serious discussion on 300 will take place unless he puts up an '03 or '08-type campaign for the next four to five years without breaking much of a sweat.

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Roy Halladay has been phenonemal, but before we hand him the NL Cy Young, Tim Lincecum and Ubaldo Jimenez say hello:

Lincecum: 5 GS, 4-0, 35.1 IP 22 H, 1.29 ERA, 7 BB, 43 K, 10.9 K/9

Jimenez: 5 GS, 5-0, 34.1 IP, 22 H, 0.79 ERA, 14 BB, 31 K, 8.1 K/9

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He got his fifth win today, making the Mets look foolish. The line:

9 IP, 3 H, 0 R/ER, 1 BB, 6 K

Halladay did have 36 starts in '03, I think. Less than a sixth into the season he is 5-1 through six starts. If he isn't skipped and nothing happens iinjury-wise, he's currently projecting to 30 wins. I don't think that's a given by any means, but it is still an outlying possibility through the first full month.

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