Phillies Extend 1b Ryan Howard for 5 years $125M with Club Option

[Don_Aase_Fan]

I'm hard-pressed to think of a similar-body guy who didn't fade in his early 30's over the last 30 years.

Andres Galaraga?

Willie McCovey?

Frank Thomas?

Willie Stargell?

Maybe not as big a Howard, but those guys were big and they didn't necessarily fade in their early 30's. Time will tell.

[Sanfran327]

Link

I guess we can take him off of our 2012 wishlist.

[NickPopagiorgio]

Link

I guess we can take him off of our 2012 wishlist.

Never had him on it. Men of his size don't age well. This is going to be a terrible deal when he's making $25 Million at 37 years old.

[Mark Carver]

Never had him on it. Men of his size don't age well. This is going to be a terrible deal when he's making $25 Million at 37 years old.

I was just thinking that the other day...

Cecil Fielder

Mo Vaughn

David Ortiz ???

He'll be 36 years old at the end of the contract.

[NickPopagiorgio]

Part of the reason I'm not on board with throwing $180 million at Prince Fielder. I cannot remember one single MLB player of that size (other than Babe Ruth, I guess) that played good baseball, well into their 30's. Howard is already 30, and will be 32 when this extension starts.

[Sports Guy]

What a stupid contract. The timing, the money and the length...Everything says dumb.

[Moose Milligan]

Great. Now we're gonna have to give Rhyne Hughes about 30 million. SMH.

[DrungoHazewood]

The downfall of many a good team is overvaluing who got them there.

[Sanfran327]

These are all good points. I guess I always feel like Howard is younger than he is. He came up a year or two later than a guy of his talent normally would. It's wierd thinking he's already 30.

[DrungoHazewood]

As I said in the other thread on the main board, PECOTA thinks Howard will be worth $75M over the entire rest of his career. The Phils paid nearly twice that for 2/3rds of that, including a few years PECOTA says will be worth < 2 wins.

PECOTA is far from flawless, but I don't know how you can expect a gargantuan first baseman with old player's skills to be worth 5+ wins every year through his 36th birthday. He's over 30 and has been worth $25M (in free agent terms) once ever.

I'd guess there's better odds he's out of baseball at 36 than worth $25M.

[Moose Milligan]

As I said in the other thread on the main board, PECOTA thinks Howard will be worth $75M over the entire rest of his career. The Phils paid nearly twice that for 2/3rds of that, including a few years PECOTA says will be worth < 2 wins.

PECOTA is far from flawless, but I don't know how you can expect a gargantuan first baseman with old player's skills to be worth 5+ wins every year through his 36th birthday. He's over 30 and has been worth $25M (in free agent terms) once ever.

I'd guess there's better odds he's out of baseball at 36 than worth $25M.

IMO, they're not just paying him for his production, they're paying for what he brings to the gate in terms of fans and a face of a franchise. I understand the PECOTA analysis and statistical breakdown of whether or not this is a good or bad contract but there's more at stake here.

Also disagree with SG that the timing is bad. The average Phillies fan is LOOOOVING this right now and thats what they're aiming for. We're pretty hypercritical here at times and being the diehards that we are, we get that this contract isn't ideal. However fans like us don't pack the house every night...we're in the minority.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like the contract either but let's just see it for what it is: National League defending champ locking up their big slugger and face of the franchise for the next 5 years. Keeps people excited.

[Stotle]

IMO, they're not just paying him for his production, they're paying for what he brings to the gate in terms of fans and a face of a franchise. I understand the PECOTA analysis and statistical breakdown of whether or not this is a good or bad contract but there's more at stake here.

Also disagree with SG that the timing is bad. The average Phillies fan is LOOOOVING this right now and thats what they're aiming for. We're pretty hypercritical here at times and being the diehards that we are, we get that this contract isn't ideal. However fans like us don't pack the house every night...we're in the minority.

Don't get me wrong, I don't like the contract either but let's just see it for what it is: National League defending champ locking up their big slugger and face of the franchise for the next 5 years. Keeps people excited.

Tend to agree with this. Not a good contract, but I could see PHI being concerned with the next three seasons and trying to keep the playoff cash-cow in place for a little longer. Werth will walk to make room for Dom Brown, and Hamels will eventually be traded for a nice little package. I don't see this cripling PHI at all -- which is not to say it isn't an overpay.

[Can_of_corn]

Also disagree with SG that the timing is bad. The average Phillies fan is LOOOOVING this right now and thats what they're aiming for.

The average Phillies fan is LOOOOVING the World Series and back to back National League Championships. And the fact that they have added someone who might be the best pitcher in the game right now and are favorites to win a 3rd straight pennant.

I don't think the average Phillies fan can get much happier right now.

[Arthur_Bryant]

These are all good points. I guess I always feel like Howard is younger than he is. He came up a year or two later than a guy of his talent normally would. It's wierd thinking he's already 30.

He played two full seasons in the low minors after his draft year, so it was basically two and a half years before he played his first AA game. That's fine for a HS draftee, but you expect a player coming out of college to move faster than that.

[RVAbird]

As I said in the other thread on the main board, PECOTA thinks Howard will be worth $75M over the entire rest of his career. The Phils paid nearly twice that for 2/3rds of that, including a few years PECOTA says will be worth < 2 wins.

PECOTA is far from flawless, but I don't know how you can expect a gargantuan first baseman with old player's skills to be worth 5+ wins every year through his 36th birthday. He's over 30 and has been worth $25M (in free agent terms) once ever.

I'd guess there's better odds he's out of baseball at 36 than worth $25M.

They definitely overpaid, and as far as his linear win value goes this could be a disaster. But I suppose Philly could try to justify it by saying that for as long as they continue to be a ~92 or 93 win team, those 4 or 5 wins that Howard provides are 4 or 5 times as valuable as they would be if the team were in a different position.

It's still a pretty bad contract with a huge amount of risk, though. Chances aren't great that Howard stays prodcutive into his mid-30s, and even if he does the contract is still quesitonable.