Scouting Report: Drew Pomeranz, LHP, Univ. of Mississippi

[Stotle]

Summary: Pomeranz leaves absolutely nothing to the imagination, but with his current stuff and profile he doesn't have to. A lefty with good velocity, a plus breaking ball and big workhorse build, all with an easy arm action and solid mechanics is a winning combination no matter how you slice it. The mechanical nits discussed above could prevent him from ever being more than an average command guy and, while his fastball/curve combo baffles collegiate hitters, he'll need to be a bit more precise to show consistent success at the next level. He started off the year in strong fashion from a BB/9 standpoint (an area that I marked as a potential concern due to his long arm action and potential difficulties repeating his release). However, the big lefty has regressed some as the season has worn on, going from 1.59 BB/9 in his first two starts to 3.16 BB/9 in March and 5.32 BB/9 in April. He continues to miss bats, but his ceiling is ultimately limited by his command and above-average, but shy of elite, arsenal. His erratic command and high strikeout totals also tend to lead to high pitch counts and could make it difficult for him to regularly work deep into games against more advanced hitters, though his build is such that he stands a good chance of enduring the long pro season provided he keeps-up with his conditioning. Pomeranz represents a fairly safe first round option in a draft filled with high school power arms and limited surefire offense. He should move quickly and provide good value as an inning-eating #3 starter with a shot at #2 upside.

Full Scouting Report Available Here

[waroriole]

Thanks Stotle. Do you think this is where we might be leaning, especially if Harper and Taillon are off the board?

[Stotle]

Thanks Stotle. Do you think this is where we might be leaning, especially if Harper and Taillon are off the board?

No idea. Depends on what Jordan is looking for in his first pick. I would imagine BAL hasn't even narrowed down their list yet.

[LookinUp]

That doesn't look like a guy I'd target with the #3 pick.

[Stotle]

That doesn't look like a guy I'd target with the #3 pick.

Depends on 1) what you are looking for in the pick, and 2) what effect you think development staff can have on the player.

[Arthur_Bryant]

No idea. Depends on what Jordan is looking for in his first pick. I would imagine BAL hasn't even narrowed down their list yet.

Joe Jordan quoted 3/3 in DrShorebird's ST report:

Right now, I have three players at the top of the board and maybe five or six others being rated from which that selection will come from. But, there may be some changes as the season goes along due to injuries or disappointing performances.

FWIW.

[Stotle]

Joe Jordan quoted 3/3 in DrShorebird's ST report:

FWIW.

Well, it worries me some if they were already keyed in on three players before the HS/college seasons were even really underway. But I'm going to assume he just meant they had a few names on top of the list but weren't close to locked in on their final group yet.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Well, it worries me some if they were already keyed in on three players before the HS/college seasons were even really underway. But I'm going to assume he just meant they had a few names on top of the list but weren't close to locked in on their final group yet.

Yeah, that sorta jumped out at me, too.

And he really did make it sound as if there's a Top Three and then some separation.

I wonder if Machado could be in that top tier so early in the spring.

[section18]

I would take a college player with our 1st pick this year. They are more advanced than a high school player and we do not need to draft a high school player two years in a row.

[RVAbird]

Joe Jordan quoted 3/3 in DrShorebird's ST report:

FWIW.

Well, it worries me some if they were already keyed in on three players before the HS/college seasons were even really underway. But I'm going to assume he just meant they had a few names on top of the list but weren't close to locked in on their final group yet.

Yeah, that sorta jumped out at me, too.

And he really did make it sound as if there's a Top Three and then some separation.

I wonder if Machado could be in that top tier so early in the spring.

I dunno, to me it sounds like he's saying "I've got three guys that I definitely think merit conversation for the third pick, and 5 or 6 guys I need to see more of."

I don't think Jordan's the kind of guy to go into the draft with early preconceptions.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I would take a college player with our 1st pick this year. They are more advanced than a high school player and we do not need to draft a high school player two years in a row.

If you're talking about a college hitter, Christian Colon is probably the only one who isn't a big reach at 1:3. And even he would be an overdraft.

If you're talking about a college pitcher, this makes most sense when there's an open path to the big league rotation for an advanced, fast-moving player (Matusz and Leake, for example). But there's a good chance that an advanced college pitcher is going to have a hard time cracking the O's rotation in 2011 or 2012. Injury, trades and disappointments can change that, of course, but a lot of young talent is already stacking up in Norfolk and Bowie. There's not much point in targeting an advanced college pitcher and then having him stalled at AAA for a season or more. Sorta defeats the purpose.

Besides, really good HS pitchers don't necessarily spend four or five years in the minors. Those who already have a couple of plus pitches can be fast movers (Porcello and Kershaw, recently). I'd rather block a 20- or 21-year-old pitcher than a 23- or 24-YO.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Back to Pomeranz... Does anybody know what happened to him and Ranaudo last weekend? Their big Friday night matchup was rained out, I guess, so they faced off in the first game of a doubleheader on Saturday. Pomeranz went three innings and walked nine; Ranaudo gave up nine hits and nine runs and didn't make it out of the 2nd inning.

What the heck was going on in Oxford? An 11-9 game was the last thing I expected out of that matchup.

[Hutman]

Back to Pomeranz... Does anybody know what happened to him and Ranaudo last weekend? Their big Friday night matchup was rained out, I guess, so they faced off in the first game of a doubleheader on Saturday. Pomeranz went three innings and walked nine; Ranaudo gave up nine hits and nine runs and didn't make it out of the 2nd inning.

What the heck was going on in Oxford? An 11-9 game was the last thing I expected out of that matchup.

From what i've read the weather still wasn't great (wind blowing out) and they were thrown off their routine. Most scouts are tossing that game out and calling it a fluke.

[Stotle]

From what i've read the weather still wasn't great (wind blowing out) and they were thrown off their routine. Most scouts are tossing that game out and calling it a fluke.

The wind can account for some of Ranaudo's struggles. Maybe the mound was in bad shape, but Pomeranz's walks are a concern, no matter what. Sure, given them both a pass for week but the walks scare me more than Ranaudo getting hit.

[mex-bird]

Pomeranz went three innings and walked nine; Ranaudo gave up nine hits and nine runs and didn't make it out of the 2nd inning.

What the heck was going on in Oxford? An 11-9 game was the last thing I expected out of that matchup.

... but Pomeranz's walks are a concern, no matter what. Sure, given them both a pass for week but the walks scare me more than Ranaudo getting hit.

I actually like Pomeranz as a choice for 1:3, but the recently lack of control is a major concern, mostly because i think he has been way overworked, or maybe he just hasn't been able to stand the draft pressure. I hope he doesn't get close to a Rich Hill clone. (Yep, the one that played with the O's and Chicago Cubs). I certainly expect more of him.