Is Adam Jones the new Luis Matos?

[nadecir]

I'm with you on the walks issue. And I'm with you - somewhat - on the Ks issue (though I don't think the Ks themselves are that alarming). What I don't follow is how you've come to the conclusion that he has "limited power."

Playing at advanced level for his age, he consistently put up .450+ SLGs in the minors, including .480 and .580 his last two years. Last year, at 23, he put up a .459 SLG on the year, which included a huge slump.

Jones pretty clearly has .500+ SLG potential if he can improve his pitch recognition.

His last two years were in the PCL, so I'd take his last two years in the minors and discount them a bit.

Jone's KK/BB rate ranks 183 out of 186 in the majors this season. If he's going to strike out 22% of the time, with a 2.3% walk rate, he needs to hit with the power of Ryan Howard in order to be successful.

[Lucky Jim]

His last two years were in the PCL, so I'd take his last two years in the minors and discount them a bit.

Jone's KK/BB rate ranks 183 out of 186 in the majors this season. If he's going to strike out 22% of the time, with a 2.3% walk rate, he needs to hit with the power of Ryan Howard in order to be successful.

To be clear, where convenient, you latch onto 25 game samples. And where convenient, you disregard whole years of performance? Pretty cagey.

[LookinUp]

I know it's been discussed before about Jones not seeing the ball well. Do you guys honestly believe he may have a problem with his eyesight? It seems to me that seeing the ball well plays a major role in regards to pitch recognition.

I've seen at least 1/2 dozen posts in this thread about eyesight. Personally, I acknowledge that it's possible but I find it highly unlikely. First, it's incredibly easy to identify. Second, I think it ignores what we're seeing with our own eyes.

Adam Jones has a long swing. It takes longer for him from the point where he starts swinging to the point where he hopes to make contact. So, I think he's cheating by starting his swing earlier. He's not reacting to the pitch, he's guessing and hoping, IMO.

I personally think that he needs to retool his hit mechanics AND approach. That means he needs to shorten his swing and focus on going to right field as much as possible. This would allow him to wait longer before starting his swing and, in turn, be able to swing at better pitches.

I think the bad-eyes excuse is just that. His problems are more complex.

[Mackus]

His last two years were in the PCL, so I'd take his last two years in the minors and discount them a bit.

Jone's KK/BB rate ranks 183 out of 186 in the majors this season. If he's going to strike out 22% of the time, with a 2.3% walk rate, he needs to hit with the power of Ryan Howard in order to be successful.

The PCL has about a .030 higher SLG than the International league on average (I looked at '05-'07). So discount them by that 30 points and you're still looking at someone with a 450 and 550 SLG at AAA his last two years. I don't think a 500 slugging in the majors is a wildly unreasonable potential.

Nobody thinks he can have success hitting the way he has this year, so citing his stats from this year as being unable to be sustainable in terms of having success doesn't really mean anything. Everyone knows he'll suck if he keeps continuing at this pace, that's not any sort of novel revelation.

[nadecir]

The PCL has about a .030 higher SLG than the International league on average (I looked at '05-'07). So discount them by that 30 points and you're still looking at someone with a 450 and 550 SLG at AAA his last two years. I don't think a 500 slugging in the majors is a wildly unreasonable potential.

Nobody thinks he can have success hitting the way he has this year, so citing his stats from this year as being unable to be sustainable in terms of having success doesn't really mean anything. Everyone knows he'll suck if he keeps continuing at this pace, that's not any sort of novel revelation.

My point is that Adam Jones has struck out 20.8%of the time in the majors, and 20.4% of the time in the minors. He has walked 5.1% of the time in the majors and 7.1% of the time in the minors. Jone's has been pretty darn consistent in with these strikeout and walk numbers in over 3500 professional at-bats.

I am not saying its impossible, but it is difficult to be a succeed in the major leagues when you strike out more than 20% of the time, and walk 5-7% of the time.

Jones has had one year in his professional career where he had greater than a .500 slugging percentage, and that was in the PCL in 2007. He had a .368 BABIP average that year in the PCL. How likely is that going to happen again in the majors?

He has a .412 career slugging percentage in 2 full seasons, plus parts of three others in the majors, with over 1300 at-bats. I will take a bet that Jones will not have greater than a .500 slugging percentage average in his major league career.

If Jones can't get his walk rate up, and continues to strike out a lot, he's either going to have to hit .300+ to succeed or hit with more power to be successful. I question whether he can hit .300+ with such poor contact rates over a decent sample size. So if he strikes out a lot, walks infrequently (like he has done his whole career), he will need to hit for more power to be successful. Wouldn't you agree with that?

[Mackus]

So if he strikes out a lot, walks infrequently (like he has done his whole career), he will need to hit for more power to be successful. Wouldn't you agree with that?

Of course, but that's not really saying anything though.

If a guy can't get on base and can't hit for power, they aren't going to be very useful.

I don't really care how often he strikes out, and 20% of the time isn't some prodigious rate. He definitely needs to get the OBP up to at least the .330 range, and ideally the slugging up too. I think if he adds some bulk, he can approach a .280/.340/.500 slash line. That would be very valuable from CF and still quite valuable from LF which is where I think he ends up, especially if he adds mass.

[Lucky Jim]

My point is that Adam Jones has struck out 20.8%of the time in the majors, and 20.4% of the time in the minors. He has walked 5.1% of the time in the majors and 7.1% of the time in the minors. Jone's has been pretty darn consistent in with these strikeout and walk numbers in over 3500 professional at-bats.

I am not saying its impossible, but it is difficult to be a succeed in the major leagues when you strike out more than 20% of the time, and walk 5-7% of the time.

Jones has had one year in his professional career where he had greater than a .500 slugging percentage, and that was in the PCL in 2007. He had a .368 BABIP average that year in the PCL. How likely is that going to happen again in the majors?

He has a .412 career slugging percentage in 2 full seasons, plus parts of three others in the majors, with over 1300 at-bats. I will take a bet that Jones will not have greater than a .500 slugging percentage average in his major league career.

If Jones can't get his walk rate up, and continues to strike out a lot, he's either going to have to hit .300+ to succeed or hit with more power to be successful. I question whether he can hit .300+ with such poor contact rates over a decent sample size. So if he strikes out a lot, walks infrequently (like he has done his whole career), he will need to hit for more power to be successful. Wouldn't you agree with that?

How many CFs in the MLB had SLGs over .450 last year? Answer: 7. Of which Adam Jones is one. He did this at 23 years old. Whether or not he has a .500 SLG for his career is irrelevant - that has more to do with longevity and career arc than it does his power. I've never heard a scout question his power, and the number crunchers don't question it either.

For context: Mike Cameron has a lifetime SLG of .447. Does he have "little power"?

Jones should have better contact skills than Cameron (this year aside, he always has) but have worse on-base skills. Nonetheless, Cameron put up K-rates of around 28% for his career. I'd take Mike Cameron in CF any day.

[Lucky Jim]

My point is that Adam Jones has struck out 20.8%of the time in the majors, and 20.4% of the time in the minors. He has walked 5.1% of the time in the majors and 7.1% of the time in the minors. Jone's has been pretty darn consistent in with these strikeout and walk numbers in over 3500 professional at-bats.

I am not saying its impossible, but it is difficult to be a succeed in the major leagues when you strike out more than 20% of the time, and walk 5-7% of the time.

Jones has had one year in his professional career where he had greater than a .500 slugging percentage, and that was in the PCL in 2007. He had a .368 BABIP average that year in the PCL. How likely is that going to happen again in the majors?

He has a .412 career slugging percentage in 2 full seasons, plus parts of three others in the majors, with over 1300 at-bats. I will take a bet that Jones will not have greater than a .500 slugging percentage average in his major league career.

If Jones can't get his walk rate up, and continues to strike out a lot, he's either going to have to hit .300+ to succeed or hit with more power to be successful. I question whether he can hit .300+ with such poor contact rates over a decent sample size. So if he strikes out a lot, walks infrequently (like he has done his whole career), he will need to hit for more power to be successful. Wouldn't you agree with that?

BTW, Wieters BABIP in AA in 2008 was over .380. And he SLG'd .599. At 22. At Double-A. (You know, when Jones was starting CF for the O's.)

[OrioleWay27]

I think Trembley has been downright irresponsible and inept forcing Jones to hit leadoff. Not only is Jones one of our worst leadoff hitters in that he has terrible on base skills (his only redeeming quality is speed, which is overrated in leadoff hiters and which Jones doesn't even capitalize on to steal bases anyway), but it unfairly puts pressure on Jones to produce at a time when he is clearly struggling.

Hitting Jones leadoff hurts the team and hurts Jones himself from a development standpoint in an ugly downward spiral. Yet another reason Trembley hurts the team and deserves to be fired.

[Frobby]

I don't really care how often he strikes out, and 20% of the time isn't some prodigious rate. He definitely needs to get the OBP up to at least the .330 range, and ideally the slugging up too. I think if he adds some bulk, he can approach a .280/.340/.500 slash line. That would be very valuable from CF and still quite valuable from LF which is where I think he ends up, especially if he adds mass.

I don't want him adding bulk. He's plenty strong enough. I think he can give you a slash line of .280/.340/.500 with his body the way it is now, if he'll just start making contact. The guy had a .274 ISO for a 2 month stretch last year, so there's plenty of power potential there.

By the way, I don't care about his K rate too much, except when it results from swinging at bad pitches. Jones's biggest problem is what he's choosing to swing at, and when. When pitchers know they don't have to throw you a strike, you are in trouble. Even the strikes he gets are borderline, because the pitchers aren't afraid that they'll get behind. Here are some interesting splits

Ahead in count: 1.033 OPS (32 PA)

Even count: .523 OPS (44 PA)

Behind in count: .408 OPS (52 PA)

Two strikes: .571 OPS (72 PA)

He's also swinging at 39.6% of the pitches he sees that are outside the strike zone, highest on the team except for Justin Turner. By contrast, Reimold swings at 19.3% and Markakis 22.3%. He has a very low 61.8% contact rate when he swings at those pitches.

[RShack]

I think Trembley has been downright irresponsible and inept forcing Jones to hit leadoff... Yet another reason Trembley hurts the team and deserves to be fired.

It's a way to get him to focus on the basics of getting on base and quit swinging for dingers. Whether it's working or not is one issue, but it's a perfectly reasonable thing to try. Saying it's irresponsible to give it a try is ridiculous.

[DrungoHazewood]

I will take a bet that Jones will not have greater than a .500 slugging percentage average in his major league career.

The average non-pitching Hall of Famer has a .462 slugging percentage.

Also, there are only 110 players in all of baseball history who have at least 1500 plate appearances and a slugging percentage over .500.

[NewMarketSean]

It's a way to get him to focus on the basics of getting on base and quit swinging for dingers. Whether it's working or not is one issue, but it's a perfectly reasonable thing to try. Saying it's irresponsible to give it a try is ridiculous.

It's past the point of a "try" now though. They tried and it hasn't worked. Now it's time to put Jones in a less-pressure spot in the line-up. Probably 7th or 8th depending on L,R orders.

[Lucky Jim]

It's past the point of a "try" now though. It isn't working. It's time to put Jones in a less-pressure spot in the line-up. Probably 7th or 8th depending on L,R orders.

Yeah: experiment failed. I understand the attempt, but time to shelve it.

[RShack]

Yeah: experiment failed. I understand the attempt, but time to shelve it.

My personal opinion, based on not much, is that AJ is running into his own personal saga of how the game humbles you. He's a well-mannered and likable guy, but I'm not sure if he's ever been humbled. Last year, Pie got humbled and climbed back up to be better than ever. Not saying Pie and AJ are the same person, I don't believe they are. But I think what we're seeing is AJ finding out about being humbled, which may be something he never ever faced before (or maybe he has, beats me, I don't really know). The challenge is to be humbled without letting it break your spirit or your focus. For some guys, I think baseball is like the western version of Zen, you have to completely lose yourself and focus entirely on each moment without letting yourself get in the way. How to best do that is one of those mystery things about which everybody is different.

AJ got where he is by being himself, then the AS game and GG just amped that part up even more. Now he's finding out that it's not that easy, that it's time to lose the ego part, and he just doesn't know how to do that yet. However, he seems like a pretty whole person in spite of having gone through the school of hard knocks, and I'm confident he can get humbled and learn. I don't pretend to know what specifics would be best for him, but whatever they are, I think it's reached the point where this is what the core issue is about. I realize I might be wrong, but this is how it looks to me....