O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[ShoelesJoe]

Based on this logic we should get the #1 pick every year.

How do you figure? My logic is that due to an unbalanced schedule, and the fact that we're in the toughest division in baseball, the Orioles on average face tougher opponents than do teams in other divisions. In reality we could be the tenth worst team in baseball, but because of these conditions we might have the fourth of fifth worst record in the game. If we're actually the fourth of fifth worst team, we might have the worst or next to the worst record at the end of the season.

Houston or KC might be the worst teams in MLB, but they may only play half their games against good teams. The Orioles might be the fourth worst team, but if they play good teams 75% of the time it's likely they'd finish with a worse record than either the Royals or the Astros.

It's not a difficult concept.

[mcgraw238]

How do you figure? My logic is that due to an unbalanced schedule, and the fact that we're in the toughest division in baseball, the Orioles on average face tougher opponents than do teams in other divisions. In reality we could be the tenth worst team in baseball, but because of these conditions we might have the fourth of fifth worst record in the game. If we're actually the fourth of fifth worst team, we might have the worst or next to the worst record at the end of the season.

Houston or KC might be the worst teams in MLB, but they may only play half their games against good teams. The Orioles might be the fourth worst team, but if they play good teams 75% of the time it's likely they'd finish with a worse record than either the Royals or the Astros.

It's not a difficult concept.

Isn't this the case year over year? What about what you said is any different that say last year, or the previous ten years. How many of those previous seasons in which we played and unbalanced schedule, in the toughest division, did we have the worst record in baseball? I agree that its not a difficult concept.

[ShoelesJoe]

Isn't this the case year over year? What about what you said is any different that say last year, or the previous ten years. How many of those previous seasons in which we played and unbalanced schedule, in the toughest division, did we have the worst record in baseball? I agree that its not a difficult concept.

What's different in 2010 is that we're a little worse than we normally are, and with the Rays coming of age the AL East as a division is a lot better than it usually is. I'd bet that if Toronto, Boston, Tampa, and the Yankees were spread around into different divisions in both leagues they'd all be first or second in their standings. Bottom line is that in 2010 the Orioles are playing a schedule where in effect almost half their games are against first place teams.

To add another stat to my argument -- as things stand we have only 17 games the rest of the year against teams that right now have a losing record. And 98 games against teams at .500 or better. A reasonable prediction would have us going 10-7 against the bad teams, and something like 33-65 against the good ones, which would have us finishing with 104 losses. Nobody in baseball's lost that many games since KC in 2005.

It would be a miracle if we didn't finish with the worst record in baseball.

[mcgraw238]

What's different in 2010 is that we're a little worse than we normally are, and with the Rays coming of age the AL East as a division is a lot better than it usually is. I'd bet that if Toronto, Boston, Tampa, and the Yankees were spread around into different divisions in both leagues they'd all be first or second in their standings. Bottom line is that in 2010 the Orioles are playing a schedule where in effect almost half their games are against first place teams.

To add another stat to my argument -- as things stand we have only 17 games the rest of the year against teams that right now have a losing record. And 98 games against teams at .500 or better. A reasonable prediction would have us going 10-7 against the bad teams, and something like 33-65 against the good ones, which would have us finishing with 104 losses. Nobody in baseball's lost that many games since KC in 2005.

It would be a miracle if we didn't finish with the worst record in baseball.

Good point regarding this season being potentially different. I still think we finish ahead of Houston. We'll see what happens.

[Arthur_Bryant]

To add another stat to my argument -- as things stand we have only 17 games the rest of the year against teams that right now have a losing record. And 98 games against teams at .500 or better. A reasonable prediction would have us going 10-7 against the bad teams, and something like 33-65 against the good ones, which would have us finishing with 104 losses. Nobody in baseball's lost that many games since KC in 2005.

Interesting analysis, but 33-65 seems unduly grim against against the .500-plus group of teams.

Yes, I could see them winning just 34 p.c. of games against division opponents, but not against the remainder of the teams in that group. I think you're right that everybody in the AL East except the O's would be a division contender elsewhere. But the flip side of that is that teams outside the division really aren't as strong as their records indicate. I think the O's are probably closer to .500 against the Tigers, Nats, Giants, and Marlins.

I think they'll be just good enough to stem the losses at about 95 and avoid having to worry about the #1 pick in 2011.

[Hutman]

Hey even if we are 2 or 3 we may still have a shot at Rendon next year he is not the clear cut # 1 pick. There are several potential # 1 ace college pitchers in the draft next year including a UT pitcher Jungman who may be too tempting for the Astros to pass up since they need help just about everywhere.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Hey even if we are 2 or 3 we may still have a shot at Rendon next year he is not the clear cut # 1 pick. There are several potential # 1 ace college pitchers in the draft next year including a UT pitcher Jungman who may be too tempting for the Astros to pass up since they need help just about everywhere.

Rendon is a true home town player for the Astros (Houston-born, Lamar HS, and Rice). Hard to see the Astros letting him get past, unless he really slumps next year. He has the potential to be for them what Mauer is for the Twins.

[ShoelesJoe]

Interesting analysis, but 33-65 seems unduly grim against against the .500-plus group of teams.

Yes, I could see them winning just 34 p.c. of games against division opponents, but not against the remainder of the teams in that group. I think you're right that everybody in the AL East except the O's would be a division contender elsewhere. But the flip side of that is that teams outside the division really aren't as strong as their records indicate. I think the O's are probably closer to .500 against the Tigers, Nats, Giants, and Marlins.

I think they'll be just good enough to stem the losses at about 95 and avoid having to worry about the #1 pick in 2011.

So far we've won just 28% of our games against other AL East teams. Since we've still got 51 games on the schedule against TB, NY, Boston, and Toronto we can take that percentage and predict something like a 14-37 record in those games. Can we do better? Sure, but we can also do worse. Somehow I doubt we'll spend the rest of the year banging the BoSox around like we did last month, so I think 28% should be about right. That leaves 47 games against winning teams in other divisions. If we win 40% of those games we'll go 19-28.

14-37 against AL East teams the rest of the year, plus 19-28 against teams w/winning records in other divisions, plus 10-7 against teams that right now have a losing record. Could we do better against the good teams? Again, possibly. But we could also go in the tank against the bad teams too, and wind up 6-11 in those games.

All in all I can see us losing 100 to 105 games a lot easier than losing 95.

[Stotle]

Rendon is a true home town player for the Astros (Houston-born, Lamar HS, and Rice). Hard to see the Astros letting him get past, unless he really slumps next year. He has the potential to be for them what Mauer is for the Twins.

And I hope he ends-up with the Astros. There are plenty of good talents for BAL to grab -- I really want this kid to get a chance to spend his career with his hometown team. He's already a start there, and it would be a tremendous story.

For BAL feel good -- DRAFT BOBBY WAHL, MR. JORDAN, AND BUY HIM AWAY FROM OLE MISS!!!!!

[tilgaham]

The way we're playing, we might just get the #1 pick.

However, I am inquisitively curious as to this guy you are suggesting Stotle. Can we get some more info/video/goodies on him?

[LookinUp]

And I hope he ends-up with the Astros. There are plenty of good talents for BAL to grab -- I really want this kid to get a chance to spend his career with his hometown team. He's already a start there, and it would be a tremendous story.

For BAL feel good -- DRAFT BOBBY WAHL, MR. JORDAN, AND BUY HIM AWAY FROM OLE MISS!!!!!

I know you said next year's draft is loaded. Who are the other top talents (as of today)?

[Stotle]

The way we're playing, we might just get the #1 pick.

However, I am inquisitively curious as to this guy you are suggesting Stotle. Can we get some more info/video/goodies on him?

Fair warning, I am way higher on him than any publication you'll read. Here is my write-up on him (originally posted in December and updated earlier today):

http://bit.ly/bd5LQs

Oh, and his favorite player growing-up -- Cal Ripken.

[Stotle]

I can't resist. You are an Oriole fan and you'd rather see another team get the consensus best talent in next year's draft because it would be a feel good story for Houston and Rendon? Unless you are telling me that he's not the best talent, I just don't get an Oriole fan voicing such an opinion. I want my team to get the best players possible. Too bad for Houston. Rendon can feel good helping the Oriole's get better.

Eh, when it comes to the amateur kids I don't mind saying my fandom takes a back seat. I'm all about the best situations for the kid -- BAL should be able to find good talent wherever they're drafting. Rendon being able to live his dream in front of his family is pretty special.

[Stotle]

I know you said next year's draft is loaded. Who are the other top talents (as of today)?

Too many to list. Huge pitching depth at college ranks. Early Top Five favorites:

Jungmann (Texas)

Purke (TCU)

Cole (UCLA)

Chance to move into that range:

Gray (Vandy)

Hultzen (UVA)

Meyer (Kentucky)

Armstrong (Vandy)

[LookinUp]

Too many to list. Huge pitching depth at college ranks. Early Top Five favorites:

Jungmann (Texas)

Purke (TCU)

Cole (UCLA)

Chance to move into that range:

Gray (Vandy)

Hultzen (UVA)

Meyer (Kentucky)

Armstrong (Vandy)

Huge talent is huge talent, so it's not like I'd want to turn them down, but I sure would like a huge hitting talent in the draft.