O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[Stotle]

Huge talent is huge talent, so it's not like I'd want to turn them down, but I sure would like a huge hitting talent in the draft.

Some solid HS and College Bats, as well. But at the very top, looks like pitching will rule. If BAL is down in the 7-13 range, should be some good bats there. But "right now" wouldn't pass on Jungmann/Cole/Purke if I'm picking 1:2 - 1:4.

[QBsILLEST1]

Some solid HS and College Bats, as well. But at the very top, looks like pitching will rule. If BAL is down in the 7-13 range, should be some good bats there. But "right now" wouldn't pass on Jungmann/Cole/Purke if I'm picking 1:2 - 1:4.

There will be some interesting HS arms too so I am hearing. Out of curiosity, I didn't see you mention Bauer, did you just forget to mention him as even a possibility to move into top 5 range or is he more of a mid rounder at best to you? Also, do you think Sonny Gray's size(or lack thereof) is the biggest drawback keeping him from a true elite top 5 guy?

[QBsILLEST1]

Huge talent is huge talent, so it's not like I'd want to turn them down, but I sure would like a huge hitting talent in the draft.

I agree, but after Rendon, you have 3 legit TOR pitchers all ranked pretty similarly or even higher than Matusz. Of course Matusz may have been a bit short changed as far as his projected ceiling by some, but many considered him #1/2 SP from the get go. Big difference is that these guys have better pure stuff than Matusz did.

Back to the big picture, it would be absolutely huge to add 2 #1 SP's into the system in back to back years, with both on the same ETA to the majors. Imagine bringing up both Taillon and G. Cole to the ML in the same season and what it would do for the team.

[LookinUp]

I agree, but after Rendon, you have 3 legit TOR pitchers all ranked pretty similarly or even higher than Matusz. Of course Matusz may have been a bit short changed as far as his projected ceiling by some, but many considered him #1/2 SP from the get go. Big difference is that these guys have better pure stuff than Matusz did.

Back to the big picture, it would be absolutely huge to add 2 #1 SP's into the system in back to back years, with both on the same ETA to the majors. Imagine bringing up both Taillon and G. Cole to the ML in the same season and what it would do for the team.

To expand, a Matusz, Taillon, Purke, Tillman, Britton rotation is pretty tantalizing for long term success. One of the above and guys like Berry, Beal, Arrieta and Hobgood might be able to net us the position players we need.

I still see the O's as in a decent place for mid-long term success.

[bluehens45]

I agree, but after Rendon, you have 3 legit TOR pitchers all ranked pretty similarly or even higher than Matusz. Of course Matusz may have been a bit short changed as far as his projected ceiling by some, but many considered him #1/2 SP from the get go. Big difference is that these guys have better pure stuff than Matusz did.

Back to the big picture, it would be absolutely huge to add 2 #1 SP's into the system in back to back years, with both on the same ETA to the majors. Imagine bringing up both Taillon and G. Cole to the ML in the same season and what it would do for the team.

Not to be a stickler but imagine bringing up Matzek, Tallion, and Cole/Purke at the same time.

[Stotle]

There will be some interesting HS arms too so I am hearing. Out of curiosity, I didn't see you mention Bauer, did you just forget to mention him as even a possibility to move into top 5 range or is he more of a mid rounder at best to you? Also, do you think Sonny Gray's size(or lack thereof) is the biggest drawback keeping him from a true elite top 5 guy?

Bauer isn't that much bigger than Gray. Gray's raw stuff is more dominant (Bauer relying a fair amount on his curve). But, yeah, Bauer would be another potential first rounder for me right now. Closer to a Hultzen than a Jungmann, though.

Gray could end-up in the pen, but he'll get a shot to be Roy Oswalt. Summer will establish preseason value for most of these guys. Then it's a shuffle starting next February. 2011 will be a great year for overreactions -- can't wait to see who gets off to a slow start and is summarily dropped out of the first round projections in mid-March.

[LookinUp]

Not to be a stickler but imagine bringing up Matzek, Tallion, and Cole/Purke at the same time.

This would have been incredible.

[tilgaham]

Fair warning, I am way higher on him than any publication you'll read. Here is my write-up on him (originally posted in December and updated earlier today):

http://bit.ly/bd5LQs

Oh, and his favorite player growing-up -- Cal Ripken.

Could we possibly snag him in Rd 4/5?

I read your report. His lack of top end stuff or top end control seems kind of suspect, but the frame is definitely very projectable.

(Not that I'm a scout or anything)

[tilgaham]

I agree, but after Rendon, you have 3 legit TOR pitchers all ranked pretty similarly or even higher than Matusz. Of course Matusz may have been a bit short changed as far as his projected ceiling by some, but many considered him #1/2 SP from the get go. Big difference is that these guys have better pure stuff than Matusz did.

Back to the big picture, it would be absolutely huge to add 2 #1 SP's into the system in back to back years, with both on the same ETA to the majors. Imagine bringing up both Taillon and G. Cole to the ML in the same season and what it would do for the team.

I know this sounds kind of asinine, but if we traded away 2011/12 success for a shot at 2014, only a fool could mess it up. We could be absolutely loaded. Ridiculously so if it was done correctly.

[QBsILLEST1]

Could we possibly snag him in Rd 4/5?

I read your report. His lack of top end stuff or top end control seems kind of suspect, but the frame is definitely very projectable.

(Not that I'm a scout or anything)

That is the thing with HSers with so much projection. What they have right now isn't the big deal, what is important is what he turns out to be. IMO, he is in a similar mold as Wirschf and Beal coming out of HS, except he has more safety of becoming a top end SP due to the added FB velo and the chance to add a good bit more. His secondaries being as good as they are now will only improve. If we drafted him, he would be the best prospect in our system of that type of mold(projection/ less FB). He will also be more pricey than Beal or Wirsch, and the fact that his stuff took such a big jump forward this year, I would consider him definitely 1st round talented, but he will drop more than likely due to asking price IMO....

[theobird]

With all the doomsayers already discussing how we are looking at locking up the first spot in the 2011 Draft, I wanted to remind them that there are 12 teams within 5.5 games of our sad position in the standings. As bad as we've been, I don't believe we're the worst team in the game, nor expect a #1 pick.

If Anthony Rendon is indeed the top dog, he'll likely be barking up another tree.

Greg, you are definitely one of my favorite posters on this board, but I respectfully disagree. We are the worst team in ML baseball and it isn't even close. I fully expect this sad sack outfit to run away with the #1 pick in next years draft.

[JimPalmerJr]

It will be a "battle" with Houston for the 1st pick, but the O's might want to finish "behind" Houston and here's why:

If the O's pick ahead of Houston, I could easily see Rendon telling the O's his salary demands will be record setting if we try to block him from playing for his hometown team.

However, if Houston passes on him, then signing Rendon would be much more likely.

[ShoelesJoe]

It will be a "battle" with Houston for the 1st pick, but the O's might want to finish "behind" Houston and here's why:

If the O's pick ahead of Houston, I could easily see Rendon telling the O's his salary demands will be record setting if we try to block him from playing for his hometown team.

However, if Houston passes on him, then signing Rendon would be much more likely.

The Astros won't pass on Rendon if they get the #1 pick. Not unless he falls off a cliff in the next year.

And if we draft him he'll sign for a fair amount.

[Greg Pappas]

Greg, you are definitely one of my favorite posters on this board, but I respectfully disagree. We are the worst team in ML baseball and it isn't even close. I fully expect this sad sack outfit to run away with the #1 pick in next years draft.

Fair enough. As you say, we see it differently.

[Stotle]

Uh, somewhere there is some failed logic. Anyway, I think you definitely pick Rendon #1 if you are picking #1 and he is clearly the #1 pick. That's why the new rule they implemented is so good. If he wants to pick where he plays, he can go back to school and hope the Stros pick him in 2012 and the Orioles can get the second pick that year plus their regular pick. You can't let players start dictating who picks them. Bad for the game.

Yup, you're right RZ. Why would Rendon risk #1 money? What guarantee is there that HOU would even be able to select him in 2012? Now, I hope HOU ends up w/#1 so they can grab him, but if BAL is there it'd be a windfall for the O's for sure.