O's are unlikely to get #1 pick in the 2011 Draft

[birdman57]

Uh, somewhere there is some failed logic. Anyway, I think you definitely pick Rendon #1 if you are picking #1 and he is clearly the #1 pick. That's why the new rule they implemented is so good. If he wants to pick where he plays, he can go back to school and hope the Stros pick him in 2012 and the Orioles can get the second pick that year plus their regular pick. You can't let players start dictating who picks them. Bad for the game.

I agree. What I see right now is an organization (Baltimore) that is totally non-competitive and has shut down, and a front office that seems indifferent to making things better by making only cosmetic moves between Baltimore and Norfolk. This tells me the FO has gone into the tank along with the ballclub with the long term goal of getting that #1 pick. If somebody sees things differently, please enlighten me:scratchchinhmm:

[JTrea81]

It will be a "battle" with Houston for the 1st pick, but the O's might want to finish "behind" Houston and here's why:

If the O's pick ahead of Houston, I could easily see Rendon telling the O's his salary demands will be record setting if we try to block him from playing for his hometown team.

However, if Houston passes on him, then signing Rendon would be much more likely.

You give him record setting money.

The draft is no place to go cheap.

[JimPalmerJr]

Yup, you're right RZ. Why would Rendon risk #1 money? What guarantee is there that HOU would even be able to select him in 2012? Now, I hope HOU ends up w/#1 so they can grab him, but if BAL is there it'd be a windfall for the O's for sure.

It's all a poker game. There is no guarantee on Houston getting him if he goes back to school for a year. However, you have a guy who has never left his hometown, to be one pick away from for playing for his hometown team.

Is it that shocking to think Houston would not get a hometown discount, and by the same token, some far off city that really hasn't won in his lifetime would be OK to play in.

Believe me I want a future left side of Rendon and Machado. I'm just saying be prepared for the contract demand of being on the Opening Day roster in 2012 so that his six years are up as quickly as possible, in addition to a record setting signing bonus.

[theobird]

Fair enough. As you say, we see it differently.

To me it really comes down to three things, whether you are right or not. 1) If Brian Roberts comes back mid June and he is the Brian Roberts we all know and love. i.e, doubles machine, base stealer, etc. Really, truly healthy. I have my doubts about that. 2) Pie comes back and picks up where he left off. I am starting to think this is pretty probable. 3) Reimold somehow finds himself and rights the ship. He starts driving the ball in AAA and then brings it to Baltimore making the release of Atkins a no-brainer. I am hoping beyond hope for this.

Now, if all three of those things can happen, then you are right. Then this team would be far from the worst in baseball.

Now, if a couple of our top prospects would put it together and push there way to Baltimore, I could start to see a light at the end of the tunnel. If by the end of June Arrieta was still throwing Zero's in AAA and the Orioles traded Millwood for value and opened up a rotation spot for Jake, that would be a huge boost. And it is starting to look more likely that Snyder may well be heating up and ready to make his push for the first base job in Baltimore. If that also happened, and we got good value for Wigginton in a trade.....Ok, slap me. I'm dreaming again.

[LookinUp]

To me it really comes down to three things, whether you are right or not. 1) If Brian Roberts comes back mid June and he is the Brian Roberts we all know and love. i.e, doubles machine, base stealer, etc. Really, truly healthy. I have my doubts about that. 2) Pie comes back and picks up where he left off. I am starting to think this is pretty probable. 3) Reimold somehow finds himself and rights the ship. He starts driving the ball in AAA and then brings it to Baltimore making the release of Atkins a no-brainer. I am hoping beyond hope for this.

Now, if all three of those things can happen, then you are right. Then this team would be far from the worst in baseball.

Now, if a couple of our top prospects would put it together and push there way to Baltimore, I could start to see a light at the end of the tunnel. If by the end of June Arrieta was still throwing Zero's in AAA and the Orioles traded Millwood for value and opened up a rotation spot for Jake, that would be a huge boost. And it is starting to look more likely that Snyder may well be heating up and ready to make his push for the first base job in Baltimore. If that also happened, and we got good value for Wigginton in a trade.....Ok, slap me. I'm dreaming again.

To me, it's more likely than a continuation of the terrible beginning of this season. I doubt all of the positives you mention happen, but I'd bet on most.

[mcgraw238]

As awful as this season has been through 50 games (or whatever the #), I find it shocking that Houston, Cleveland and Seattle are only a handful of games behind us for the #1 pick.

[baltfan]

As awful as this season has been through 50 games (or whatever the #), I find it shocking that Houston, Cleveland and Seattle are only a handful of games behind us for the #1 pick.

Just triple the number of games and it shouldn't look so shocking. How often is the worst team in baseball that much worse than the second worst? The Orioles at the current pace would be about 7 games worse than anyone else.

[mcgraw238]

Just triple the number of games and it shouldn't look so shocking. How often is the worst team in baseball that much worse than the second worst? The Orioles at the current pace would be about 7 games worse than anyone else.

No kidding. Not to mention the upcoming schedule is brutal. I think we will create a little spread with what's coming up.

[ShoelesJoe]

Orioles are now sporting a .283 winning % for 2010, and if we continue at this pace we'll lose 116 games. Right now our closest rivals for the 2011 #1 pick are as follows:

Houston -- 4 games back

Arizona -- 4.5 games back

Cleveland -- 5 games back

Seattle -- 6 games back

Kansas City -- 6.5 games back

Pittsburgh -- 7 games back

We've still got 46 games left against AL East teams (.231 winning % against) which should give us a comfortable margin. :laughlol:

[Justinlstn]

The only silver lining to this entire season is if they finish dead last. Last year i was irratated when they got that final winning series to give them 1 more win ahead of the Pirates. Rather us being in the driver seat on our pick then having to end up with what the Pirates don't want. i just hope they don't pull the same sh*t again this year and make some kind of final week run. Go Down in flames guys But if that does happen, as of right now Rendon who are the other top players? Anyone up near his level of talent to be legtimate next best pick? Like a 1st baseman who can hit with power and average???

[Hutman]

Sad to say, but after that pathetic month of May, we could certainly have the first pick. The Astro's are bad, but we are worse.

[paulcoates]

We are on pace for 44 wins. The #1 pick is all but sewn up at this point and we still have to play

Bos 11 more times

NYY 9 more times

TB 12 more times

Anthony Rendon, here we come!

[PaulFolk]

We are on pace for 44 wins. The #1 pick is all but sewn up at this point and we still have to play

Nothing is sewn up in the first week of June. The Orioles are abysmal, but so are a few other teams, and some of them might start trading off veterans and become even worse.

That said, the O's are certainly in the driver's seat right now. They're 6 games worse than the next three worst teams (Astros, Indians, and Diamondbacks).

[Scrat1]

Shooting the moon!

[JayThomas]

Shooting the moon!

Yeah, run the table! I'm tired of losing and finishing out the season winning a series and losing a draft position. We've got a 6 or 7 game lead now. We're in charge of our destiny!