Too much negativism every time we lose

[LookinUp]

Too negative? Possibly. I'm certainly not in the blow it up and start over again crowd. OTOH, we definitely get too positive when we win games.

This team is pretty terrible. We should all be honest about it and we shouldn't forget that when we do win a couple, or 10 of 20 for that matter. You see those irrational posts like Guthrie's best start ever, or Matusz turned the corner, when they finally put up nice performances against one of the worst offensive teams in the league. News flash, I was happy too, but I'll believe these guys are studs when they do it against decent competition.

The mood swings go both ways, we just don't get to over react in a positive way even 1/3 of the time, so we notice it less.

[Old#5fan]

Too negative? :eektf:This team just got their tails whipped by a struggling bottom feeding Cleveland team. This isn't the Yankees, Rays, or a good team that just kicked their butts. I am sick of the losing mentality of this team and their patented "you just have to tip your hat to the other team." This is the company line now.

[Three Run Homer]

The team is 10-9 its last 19 games, but a lot of folks seem to think we're stlll playing .111 baseball. Forget the bad start, and forget about making up for it by playing like we are a great team. Just avoid any long losing streaks going forward and see how the year goes.

I was willing to give them the benefit of the doubt when they were able to go 7-7 against the Yankees, Red Sox and Twins for a couple of weeks. That could be seen as a moral victory.

But this week was supposed to be different. We were home against two second division clubs and we needed some late inning heroics from Luke Scott just to get to 3-3. If we can't get on a roll against bad teams at home, there's no way we'll be able to keep our heads above water once we start playing better teams and playing on the road again.

Too much negativity? Maybe. But the real problem is that there's too much to be negative about.

If AM has been holding off on firing Trembley because he wanted to see if the team would go on a roll once the schedule got easier, I'd say Trembley's days are numbered.

[LookinUp]

I'm not sure what to tell you if you think this is true. I came to the board when the game ended last night and there were no fewer than 7 different threads posted in 15 minutes with folks upset about X, Y, or Z. The rate was nowhere near the same after the 8th inning comeback against Seattle or the Boston sweep. I'm not taking a stand on what I think is right/wrong about that. I'm really not. People have a right to be upset and vent if they want to. But facts are facts. The post/thread rate when things are going well is nowhere near the post/thread rate when things are going bad. This place was basically a ghost town on Friday night after the third win and all day Saturday. It just was...

I never said it was equal.

[Bradysburns]

Good post sir and I agree Frobby has great posts, but hard not to be in a very bad place with this team.

At this point, I would say this team is on a VERY short leash. It's like a kid whose had countless chances, and he KEEPS putting his hand in the cookie jar. And that means every time they blow another game in galling fashion, I would damn well expect people to go a little ape on the board. It's better than kicking the dog.

[JTrea81]

I'm not sure what to tell you if you think this is true. I came to the board when the game ended last night and there were no fewer than 7 different threads posted in 15 minutes with folks upset about X, Y, or Z. The rate was nowhere near the same after the 8th inning comeback against Seattle or the Boston sweep. I'm not taking a stand on what I think is right/wrong about that. I'm really not. People have a right to be upset and vent if they want to. But facts are facts. The post/thread rate when things are going well is nowhere near the post/thread rate when things are going bad. This place was basically a ghost town on Friday night after the third win and all day Saturday. It just was...

Instead of just looking at posts during wins and losses, why don't you look and see when the Orioles have won games. I think you'll find a bunch of them have been on the weekend. And then why don't you have a look at post rate during the weekend, vs. during the week.

Also people do have lives outside this message board. I'm not surprised to see this place dead on a Friday night or a Saturday. Perhaps people were out and about?

[Ohfan67]

I don't see how anyone can really complain about people being incredibly upset with this team. The 2010 orioles are yet again one of the worst teams in baseball. Injuries have obviously really hurt so that's the only reason Simon et al are in the majors. But Most of the rest is pretty much just ineptitude. Thank god for markakis and matusz.

I don't post but have read the board for years. It's obvious the board is a major vent for many. I'm sure it cuts down on heads smashed against walls.

[H0smash]

Do I feel validated from what I've been saying for the past two years under MacPhail is indeed happening? Of course. For all the crap I've taken on this board about my thoughts on MacPhail and his plan, it's nice to see more people finally seeing the light

The less people that pat him on the back and approach him in public and tell him that he's doing a good job, the better. MacPhail needs to lose fan support so he can actually be pressured into deviating from a flawed plan. His ego needs to take a hit.

Am I happy about it? Hell no! In fact that things are happening that I predicted, it just makes me feel worse because there was an opportunity to correct things. Things could have been so much different then they are now.

Imagine if we had Smoak in our lineup and Leake in our rotation instead of just Matusz in our rotation?

Imagine if we had a consistent offensive threat or two in our lineup so we wouldn't score less than 4 runs every game?

Imagine if instead of 2012 or 2013, we'd actually be looking at 2011 to actually have a shot at competing?

The potential and opportunity was there, but the Orioles blew it, because it wasn't part of "the plan."

And make no mistake, I'm more ticked off that I saw this coming and now it's happening, and our future looks very bleak unless MacPhail and the Orioles do something drastic and soon.

I want to see this team win, and I knew and still know that MacPhail will not allow that happen by following this current plan.

Ok, so what you are saying is that Smoak + Leake >>>> Matusz + Hobgood? I mean it's very possible but certainly not a sure thing. We won't know about Hobgood for a few more years, so I'm just going to leave that one alone for now, but let's start with Matusz:

Anyone who has watched him pitch will most likely tell you that he has looked very good at times, very unlucky for most of this year, and at some times has looked like a rookie. A lot of the numbers are promising with Matusz, though, a .351 BABIP tells us that he's been unlucky, 3.42 BB/9 is high compared to last year and should decrease (both stats tell us less that he should allow less base runners which = less runs), his FIP is 3.21, and tERA is 3.43 both good numbers which say that Matusz has just been unlucky so far. He has been a little lucky as well, though, 2.8 HR/FB% is very low as his xFIP indicates: 4.70, and his GB% is also low at 30.6%. Hopefully he can do a better job of keeping the ball down and get that GB% up to about 35-38%, and if he can get his walks down that would help a lot as well. He'll most likely give up more HRs but as his BABIP normalizes he should be able to keep a solid ERA. He's a rookie but he has shown a lot of promise this year, I expect big things from him.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2646&position=P

Now onto Mike Leake: Let me start with the fact that he pitches against the NL Central, as opposed to the AL East (Matusz), and even still has been pitching above his head. Leake has a .245 BABIP (which will get higher), a 77.4% LOB% (which should come down a bit), a 4.09 FIP, a 4.20 xFIP, and a tERA of 4.15. I do not know how he would pitch if you put him in the AL East, which is where he would pitch with the O's, but it would be worse than he is pitching with the Reds, not better. He has a 53.4% GB% which is promising but also 3.86 BB/9 and 6.36 K/9 (both worse than Matusz).

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10130&position=P

I like Smoak a lot but we have to wait to see how Hobgood progresses before we can make a clear decision on how we did in the first round of the past two drafts... who knows maybe Hobgood gets us a "big bat" in a deal that's semi-comparable to Smoak. But I would definitely rather have Matusz than Leake, and if he continues to progress the way I expect, I'd rather have Matusz over Smoak as well. He has the potential to be an elite pitcher and we have not had one of those in a long time.

[JTrea81]

Easy, Perry Mason! I'm not saying you don't have a case but this is his response. Even someone slow like me can see that he's saying that the O's have done most of their winning on the weekends and he doesn't post as much on the weeknds. I have no idea if this is true and frankly don't think it's worth finding out. You have let this guy get to you so much that it seems 90% of your posts are just rebuttals towards JTrea. Come back!

P.S. Still think Adam Jones is about to break out? yuck, yuck

7 out of 12 Oriole wins have been on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

The three game sweep of the Sox was Friday-Sunday.

The Orioles have not won a game on Monday, and only have one Wednesday win and one Tuesday win with the other 3 coming on a Thursday.

So there usually is not a lot of positive things that happen during the week.

[glorydays]

7 out of 12 Oriole wins have been on Friday, Saturday or Sunday.

The three game sweep of the Sox was Friday-Sunday.

The Orioles have not won a game on Monday, and only have one Wednesday win and one Tuesday win with the other 3 coming on a Thursday.

So there usually is not a lot of positive things that happen during the week.

So you just aren't around when the O's win on the weekends. Interesting... but yet you seem to be VERY active on the boards this weekend when they lose 2/3 against the Indians

Just a coincidence...or just no big weekend plans??

[Moose Milligan]

Guys, there's no reasoning with JTrea. Just when you think you've got him pinned down, he'll make an incredible leap in logic, ignore a perfectly valid post or vacate the thread.

I know I'm really not one to talk but...it's just not worth it.

[JTrea81]

So you just aren't around when the O's win on the weekends. Interesting... but yet you seem to be VERY active on the boards this weekend when they lose 2/3 against the Indians

Just a coincidence...or just no big weekend plans??

The latter.

Slow weekend. A rarity for me...

[dhaze]

DON'T YOU PEOPLE UNDERSTAND! Orioles wins are such a scarce luxury that when they occur Jtrea cannot waste the precious afterglow posting on a message board.

He is out devouring, pillaging, plucking the day to his ceaseless delight powered by a geyser of elan vital that surges forth within him whenever the O's are victorious.

When they lose he has no salve but to valiantly fight for the overthrow of the demonic men who shackle the Orioles offense, and thus his spirit, by refusing to acquire a big bat.

Such is the excruciating severity of his fandom.

[ChesterPeake]

Great loss today! If the O's game had not been such a dreary snooze-fest, I feel very positive that I wouldn't have planted the magnolia tree in my front yard today. It is a beautiful little tree and I know that I'll enjoy it for years to come. I'm keeping it positive after a loss.

[TonySoprano]

LOL. You kill me sometimes, JTrea! So Duquette closed the Wieters deal? Even if he did, Wieters/Boras had the choice of accepting the 6M or going back to college. They didn't have other teams to compete against. So now you use that as an analogy to show that Duquette could have closed the Teixeira deal. Wow! You are too much.

By all accounts, MacPhail was given the authority to unilaterally offer a contract...even if it was the fourth biggest reported offer for weeks.

Angelos did not give Flanagan and Duquette a budget number from which to manage, which made their job more difficult. By the time those two would have a chance (to underbid), Teixeria would have already been signed, sealed, and delivered to NY.