AM lied when he said this season was about winning

[Mackus]

I certainly believe MCab is one of those players though and i think it is wrong to sit back and wait until contention is there before making a move like this.

Its wrong to sit back and wait until you are right on the cusp of contention if you think the guy will still be the same player by the time you are contending.

I wanted Tex two years ago, because I was confident that he would still be a $20M+ player in 2011 and thru at least 2014, so paying for him for the first few years wouldn't be a waste because he'd still be that elite player we needed 3 years down the road and through most of the remainder of this contract after that. But I didn't want Burnett because I didn't think he'd be a $15M+ pitcher 3 years down the road and through most of the remainder of his contract beyond that.

Cabrera is a tough one because it brings an effort and mental thing into it, which is far more volatile and less easy to predict than simply performance and health. I think he'd probably be worth the risk to go after, though, if he was ever actually available over the offseason, which I don't think he was.

[DrungoHazewood]

To put a negaitve spin on it, the longer a prospect hangs around an organization, the more time he has to bomb. Part of the value of a prospect is his hype and his "ceiling". And nobody should know more about a prospect than his organization. We should be able to evaluate a pitcher (guys like Daniel Cabrera and Liz resonate with me) and conclude that he's not likely to harness his raw ability: let's deal him while his skills are still tantilizing to the rest of the league.

Same thing applies for Tillman & Co. As much as I'd rather have them pan out and turn into HOF pitchers, there's a greater possibility that he'll stink and never win 25 games. If we can get a player of Miguel Cabrera's caliber for the likes of Tillman +1 or 2, then I think you make that move in your sleep. If we don't have to give up any major-league talent (i.e., anyone on our current 25-man roster) for a big bat, I'd say do it.

But don't forget the many downsides of that approach. It's vastly more expensive, so it can't be the main way you acquire your core unless you're a rich team. If you're building, at least some of those young guys have to pan out, and the best way to make sure some of them do is to have a lot of them. If you trade Tillman and Britton for Cabrera, but Matusz and Bergesen collapse, you're probably no better off than had you not pulled off the trade, and you're out a lot more money.

Trading both quantity and quality of youth drives up expense, concentrates risk in fewer players, trading those things for more certainty in performance. You better be pretty sure that equation works out or you might end up in a deeper hole than where you started.

[Sanfran327]

But don't forget the many downsides of that approach. It's vastly more expensive, so it can't be the main way you acquire your core unless you're a rich team. If you're building, at least some of those young guys have to pan out, and the best way to make sure some of them do is to have a lot of them. If you trade Tillman and Britton for Cabrera, but Matusz and Bergesen collapse, you're probably no better off than had you not pulled off the trade, and you're out a lot more money.

Trading both quantity and quality of youth drives up expense, concentrates risk in fewer players, trading those things for more certainty in performance. You better be pretty sure that equation works out or you might end up in a deeper hole than where you started.

Certainly: there is a great amount of risk involved in both approaches. But that's not why you trade 2 of 3 guys, but rather 2 of 6 (like we can do now). And there's nothing that guarantees a that a player with a great track record will come to your team and produce the same way. Cabrera could get hurt, test positive for a PED, leave the team to go to rehab, get thrown in jail for domestic violence, or turn into Albert Belle.

But I think SG's point is that you target one guy (in this case, it's MCab), then deal from a position of strength to get him. It's the sort of thing that you do once per "wave" of mature prospects, not something that you do every year. Tillman is an interesting prospect because he's already been up and shown that he can have some success, but he's back in AAA ball proving that he can do it consistently. Britton is a guy that seems to have a lot of potential, but hasn't been anywhere close to the majors, so he's still a huge question mark, both for us and Detroit.