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Arrieta 5/20


Frobby

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Just looking at his overall numbers here. He really has addressed a lot of his issues from last year. Walks and pitch counts could be a bit lower but he's not letting anyone get the ball airborne. He's made 9 starts and in every single game he had fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. He's allowing fewer than 5 H/9, that's awfully dominant.

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I think Arrieta is more ready than Tillman. Arrieta has been pretty consistent. Hasn't really had a terrible start yet whereas Tillman has had some great starts and 3-4 pretty bad ones. Arrieta has also done a better job of keeping the ball down. I'd bring up Arrieta 1st.

I think the two would perform comparably (results-wise) at this point, but I think Arrieta is closer to being what he's going to be, while Tillman still has some issues he could iron out.

I think both will see >10 ML starts this season and break camp in the rotation in 2011 either way, though.

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Just looking at his overall numbers here. He really has addressed a lot of his issues from last year. Walks and pitch counts could be a bit lower but he's not letting anyone get the ball airborne. He's made 9 starts and in every single game he had fewer hits allowed than innings pitched. He's allowing fewer than 5 H/9, that's awfully dominant.

Well, the question is, with what he is working on, has that effected his walks?

Griffin hinted that some of his walks were due to a lot of other factors, outside of just poor command.

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I'm not sure what your point is. Mechanics is a pretty major issue which affects everything a pitcher does. His mechanics might be great right now. He's still been inconsistent. He's also been an extreme flyball pitcher (0.68) without great strikeout numbers (40 K's in 51 IP). If his mechanics are still a problem, he's not ready. If his mechanics are perfect, I still don't think he's ready (to succeed).

Well, there are a few things you have to like:

1) His BB rate is 1.91.

2) His HR rate is .7

3) his K/BB ratio is 3.6

4) His K rate is 7...agreed this isn't great.

5) The BABIP is normal, so not too crazy.

6) his MLE suggest a 4.78 ERA...which is right around where I would expect him to be this year in the majors. 4th starter.

Some things you don't like:

1) GB rate is worse thus far.

2) HR/FB% suggests he has been a little lucky with the homers allowed

Now, he is working on a new pitch, so how much is that effecting him.

BTW, i mentioned the mechanics thing as something that I could see the Orioles looking at...IE, he would be here if not for that, so maybe because of that idea, the club brings him up first...he has been here and worked on what they asked him to do.

But I would also agree that that reasoning may not be that great.

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If it were my decision I would bring up Arrieta over Tillman. Tillman is a few years younger and could probably use some more innings to work on his cutter/2-seamer. No sense in rushing him back up to have MLBers abuse a pitch he hasn't perfected yet. This is assuming he's still working on it of course. Let Arrieta get a taste.

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The question is, who do you bring up first?

I say bring up Tillman first.

Re-framing the question, I think what you are asking is "Who should move into the MLB rotation?"

My preference would be to bring them both up. Have one start, the other pitch multiple innings out of the 'pen.

If you really want to go novel (although this approach is often used in the minors), stack them both together on same day. One guy starts, then immediately followed by the other.

We suspect that both Arrieta and Tillman will face pitch count issues that will prohibit them from going deep in games. So why not pair them? On many nights, this should lead to coverage across all 9 innings.

If the O's were to go in that direction (I know, radical), then who "starts" and who "follows" doesn't really matter.

Benefits of this approach (and really any approach that gets them both up here, and has at least one working out of 'pen)

  • exposure against MLB hitters, allowing refinement of pitching arsenal
  • Limits innings pitched, as both would ideally be in 160-175 range. Starting full time will probably require a September shut-down on their current pacing.
  • Timing. Better to get them up now, while they have arm strength, rather than Aug/Sept where they may be gassed.
  • No pressure to get exceedingly deep in the game (if you "pair" them, or have them serve as long-men). Just get out there and take on MLB hitters with your best stuff, don't hold anything back.

Once arb clock is no longer a constraint on Arrieta, get him up immediately. Not sure how the service time will work out for Tillman given his big league experience last year, but would be in favor of bringing him up in June as well.

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Give Hernandez a couple more starts. If he isn't showing signs of improvement and we've got two guys at AAA in Arrieta and Tillman tearing it up, you've got to promote one of them.

I'd give Arrieta the nod and bring him up after his Super 2 status has passed.

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I'm not sure what your point is. Mechanics is a pretty major issue which affects everything a pitcher does. His mechanics might be great right now. He's still been inconsistent. He's also been an extreme flyball pitcher (0.68) without great strikeout numbers (40 K's in 51 IP). If his mechanics are still a problem, he's not ready. If his mechanics are perfect, I still don't think he's ready (to succeed).

Plus, there's been things said that suggests he was sent down for other things as well, so I don't think we can say he's only down there for mechanics.

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