Another good game for Arrieta

[baltfan]

Palmer had gold glovers all over the place behind him.

Pitching to contact isn't a good thing unless you have an amazing defense behind you and even then, K's are still better.

No one is saying that K's aren't better. My point is that a lot of guys concentrate so much on K's that it makes them a worse pitcher because they fall behind and get burned. In other words, a pitcher may artificially inflate his k-rate to 8 by falling behind in counts and always going for the strike out, so with a k-rate of say 7 he would be a better pitcher.

Do you think Halladay worries about k's? Don't you think he could strike out more guys if he focused on it? But he doesn't because he knows in the end he would be a worse pitcher. Every pitcher has a K-rate that is right for him and his stuff. They get in trouble when they try to artificially inflate that k-rate instead of concentrating on pitching properly.

The Twins believe in this. Palmer believes in this. And pitching to contact is generally the trend in baseball. Would you rather have a guy who pitches to contact with a k-rate of 8 vs. 6? Of course. But you would rather have a guy that pitches to contact with a k-rate of 6 versus a guy who doesn't pitch to contact with a k-rate of 8.

[Sports Guy]

No one is saying that K's aren't better. My point is that a lot of guys concentrate so much on K's that it makes them a worse pitcher because they fall behind and get burned. In other words, a pitcher may artificially inflate his k-rate to 8 by falling behind in counts and always going for the strike out, so with a k-rate of say 7 he would be a better pitcher.

Do you think Halladay worries about k's? Don't you think he could strike out more guys if he focused on it? But he doesn't because he knows in the end he would be a worse pitcher. Every pitcher has a K-rate that is right for him and his stuff. They get in trouble when they try to artificially inflate that k-rate instead of concentrating on pitching properly.

The Twins believe in this. Palmer believes in this. And pitching to contact is generally the trend in baseball. Would you rather have a guy who pitches to contact with a k-rate of 8 vs. 6? Of course. But you would rather have a guy that pitches to contact with a k-rate of 6 versus a guy who doesn't pitch to contact with a k-rate of 8.

A batted ball is an out 70-73% of the time...A K is an out 99.5% of the time.

The idea of pitching to contact isn't terrible but it only works if you have a good defense behind you.

[Lucky Jim]

It's not that you're wrong, because pitch count does matter. However, K rate is also an indication of a pitcher's ability to miss bats or induce weak contact. Tillman has had high pitch counts despite his low K and BB rates this year. That's what's troubling because it indicates that hitters are able to foul off his stuff. Also, Tillman's LD% is 22.5 this year.

In other words, people are making better contact against him than they are Arrieta. That has to be a concern for him and the franchise. The K rate is just an indicator of this.

This may be true, but Tillman's splits suggest that he's working on things. Look at the difference with no outs versus with runners on, and versus with outs. This is just a guess - and it's conditioned on a small sample and no "think through" of other confounding factors - but it looks like he might working on things early in the innings and with none on, and bearing down a bit as he needs to.

                 IP	FIP	   	BF	H	2B	HR	W	IW	K	GDP	   	AVG	BABIP	WHIP	W/9	K/9	HR/9	   	GB%	LD%	FB%	IF/F	HR/F0 out		20.7	4.84		87	27	4	3	4	0	10	2		0.325	0.343	1.50	1.74	4.35	1.31		30.0%	25.0%	37.5%	12.0%	10.0%1 out		20.0	1.59		72	15	2	0	3	0	22	2		0.221	0.326	0.90	1.35	9.90	0.00		36.0%	24.0%	32.0%	21.4%	0.0%2 out		17.7	3.23		73	13	4	1	5	0	15	0		0.191	0.231	1.02	2.55	7.64	0.51		34.5%	18.2%	43.6%	17.6%	4.2%None On		31.3	3.56		133	33	7	3	6	0	25	0		0.260	0.303	1.24	1.72	7.18	0.86		33.3%	27.5%	39.2%	16.2%	7.5%Men On		28.0	2.88		101	22	3	1	6	0	22	4		0.234	0.296	1.00	1.93	7.07	0.32		32.9%	16.5%	36.5%	15.6%	3.2%RISP		16.7	3.64		61	10	1	1	6	0	13	3		0.185	0.225	0.96	3.24	7.02	0.54		37.8%	13.3%	42.2%	20.0%	5.3%C & L		7.0	3.20		22	2	0	1	0	0	7	0		0.091	0.071	0.29	0.00	9.00	1.29		43.8%	0.0%	50.0%	25.0%	12.5%

[baltfan]

A batted ball is an out 70-73% of the time...A K is an out 99.5% of the time.

The idea of pitching to contact isn't terrible but it only works if you have a good defense behind you.

When you fall behind in counts, throw extra pitches, and walk more batters in a quest to get a few more k's you become a worse pitcher.

K's are best when you need them, e.g. men in scoring position. This actually would be a better stat.

[Sports Guy]

And a walk is an out 0% of the time. You're not getting what he's saying.

No I am...I just don't agree with him.

You shouldn't sacrifice stuff to have better control.

Remember when DCab did that?

[Sports Guy]

When you fall behind in counts, throw extra pitches, and walk more batters in a quest to get a few more k's you become a worse pitcher.

K's are best when you need them, e.g. men in scoring position. This actually would be a better stat.

Letting up hits and baserunners up pitch counts, not strikeouts.

[baltfan]

No I am...I just don't agree with him.

You shouldn't sacrifice stuff to have better control.

Remember when DCab did that?

If that were the issue with DCab he would have just started throwing 99 again. Problem is that he could never do that. It is obvious something happened.

[baltfan]

Letting up hits and baserunners up pitch counts, not strikeouts.

So you believe a pitcher should basically try to strike everyone out all of the time with a few exceptions (e.g. need a double play)?

Do you think that a pitcher can ever be so obsessed with strikeouts that it works to his detriment?

[LookinUp]

This may be true, but Tillman's splits suggest that he's working on things. Look at the difference with no outs versus with runners on, and versus with outs. This is just a guess - and it's conditioned on a small sample and no "think through" of other confounding factors - but it looks like he might working on things early in the innings and with none on, and bearing down a bit as he needs to.

You could certainly be right. He did go to the minors to work on stuff. I'll be a little skeptical though until I see him miss some bats in the pros. His K's and LD% just went the wrong way in 09 and 10 as he faced better competition. It's just my guess that they started laying off his curve ball.

[Lucky Jim]

You could certainly be right. He did go to the minors to work on stuff. I'll be a little skeptical though until I see him miss some bats in the pros. His K's and LD% just went the wrong way in 09 and 10 as he faced better competition. It's just my guess that they started laying off his curve ball.

I'm not too worried about his LD%. Looking at other good prospects (Hanson, Price, Buchholz) they all lingered (usually) between 20% and 24%.

Don't get me wrong. I have concerns. I hope only to be pleasantly surprised on Saturday (and going forward).

[LookinUp]

I'm not too worried about his LD%. Looking at other good prospects (Hanson, Price, Buchholz) they all lingered (usually) between 20% and 24%.

Don't get me wrong. I have concerns. I hope only to be pleasantly surprised on Saturday (and going forward).

To put my thoughts in context...

I'm actually still very bullish on Tillman. I think he's been talented beyond his years since we got him, but I do think that the jump from AA hitters to ML hitters is a very big one, and that even AAA hitters are a significant challenge. IMO, he'll keep improving, he'll adjust to the competition and he'll eventually be a #2 type of starter for us. I just don't expect his success to be immediate. A Hughes/Bucholz like learning curve isn't out of the question for Tillman.

[Lucky Jim]

To put my thoughts in context...

I'm actually still very bullish on Tillman. I think he's been talented beyond his years since we got him, but I do think that the jump from AA hitters to ML hitters is a very big one, and that even AAA hitters are a significant challenge. IMO, he'll keep improving, he'll adjust to the competition and he'll eventually be a #2 type of starter for us. I just don't expect his success to be immediate. A Hughes/Bucholz like learning curve isn't out of the question for Tillman.

And may be likely. I really love a lot of things about Tillman, and he's been my favorite prospect (in the Tillman v. Matusz dialogs, I lean Tillman), but I'm only hoping that he shows me something Saturday, not expecting.

[Sports Guy]

So you believe a pitcher should basically try to strike everyone out all of the time with a few exceptions (e.g. need a double play)?

Do you think that a pitcher can ever be so obsessed with strikeouts that it works to his detriment?

I think a pitcher should go out and command and locate his pitches.

I think if a pitcher has to sacrifice stuff for command, then that pitcher is likely going to be in trouble long term.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree with that. I'm just not sure he's as talented as either of those two.

He doesn't have the fastball of either of those two. I (and I may be alone) like his curve and change more, if he can locate them (even moderately well).

[LookinUp]

I agree with that. I'm just not sure he's as talented as either of those two.

If he develops his cutter into anything close to a plus pitch, I'd strongly disagree. His issues seem to be about command more than stuff, again, assuming he develops a cutter. His curve and change are very very nice, and his fastball isn't exactly bad.