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How will you feel if the O's pass on Taillon?


How will you feel if the O's pass on Taillon?  

97 members have voted

  1. 1. How will you feel if the O's pass on Taillon?

    • Content. The O's know what they're doing
    • Meh. Don't understand why the O's would pass on him but whatever.
    • Disgusted. Blecch!


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Once again for comparison/reference purposes......Zack Grienke's stats

9-2 - 0.55 ERA, 63 IP, 118 K, 8 BB. Picked 6th in 2002.

I don't know how many times I can say that NO ONE in any professional evaluative capacity gives serious weight to high school stats...

Here are Bobby Bundy's stats for senior year:

0.80 ERA, 0.35 WHIP, 54 IP, 111 SO, 6 BB, 13 H. Picked 236th overall in 2008 by Baltimore.

I guess you would have endorsed picking him in the top 10...

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Because who cares about high school stats??????

6-1/170, FB topping at 90/91 mph

6-7/230, FB topping around 98 mph

Which do you think has a better shot at leading a Major League staff down the line?

You have to give them some context. No? We hear 98 about Taillon, but we heard 95 with Hobgood too didn't we?

6-7 230? You can't possibly be talking about DCab can you? Or Farnsworth? Or etc, etc, etc?

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I don't know how many times I can say that NO ONE in any professional evaluative capacity gives serious weight to high school stats...

Here are Bobby Bundy's stats for senior year:

0.80 ERA, 0.35 WHIP, 54 IP, 111 SO, 6 BB, 13 H. Picked 236th overall in 2008 by Baltimore.

I guess you would have endorsed picking him in the top 10...

I thought he was hurt going into the draft wasn't he? Those are pretty stellar stats for someone who got hurt?

19 men on base in 54 innings and he had an ERA of .8? Those hits must have been some doozy's.

Why pray tell would you suggest I pick a hurt HS pitcher in the top ten?

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You have to give them some context. No? We hear 98 about Taillon, but we heard 95 with Hobgood too didn't we?

6-7 230? You can't possibly be talking about DCab can you? Or Farnsworth? Or etc, etc, etc?

I got Taillon 96 on my gun last August (after a summer of showcase/tournament travel), sitting amongst about 25 other guns all with similar numbers. So, yeah, I'm comfortable with the idea he is hitting 98s this spring after resting all winter.

Hey, I'm fine to take Taillon and you take your boy. Any amount you want (barring injury) on who has the better ML career.

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I thought he was hurt going into the draft wasn't he? Those are pretty stellar stats for someone who got hurt?

19 men on base in 54 innings and he had an ERA of .8? Those hits must have been some doozy's.

Why pray tell would you suggest I pick a hurt HS pitcher in the top ten?

No, he tore his ACL during basketball season. Obviously he played baseball in the spring (hence the stats).

Plus, stats are what are important right? If he can do that coming off a knee injury, imagine what he must be healthy!!!!!!!!

Wait, are you joking? Are you playing with me you devil? You are, aren't you?! Getting me all riled-up for fun! Hilarious -- you got me. Well done, sir. I didn't think there was any way you were being serious with this back-and-forth.

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Once again for comparison/reference purposes......Zack Grienke's stats

9-2 - 0.55 ERA, 63 IP, 118 K, 8 BB. Picked 6th in 2002.

I can't believe you are waging this absurd war over multiple threads in a pretty barren section of this message board.

I feel compelled to repost my other reply just because it would be a crime for an interested newcomer to check only this thread and not the other:

This crusade of yours is getting ridiculous. It's been pointed out that stats for HS pitchers are notoriously unreliable.

As much as sabermetrics and statistical analysis has done for the game, the realm of high school talent still essentially belongs to scouts.

Not only are these statistics unreliable because of the WILD variation in talent, but there is a little thing called projection that is incredibly important when evaluating 17-18 year old kids.

You've said that Taillon's stats deserve a little context, but you have provided absolutely no context in your comparison. The point is that you can't really give much context to HS stats because there is so much variation in talent/circumstance from one batter to another, one team to another, one park to another, one region to another, etc. let alone one YEAR to another.

League talent level doesn't even stay anywhere near consistent from one year to the next because we are talking about 15-18 year old kids playing the game.

All that aside, you have to take into account how much projection a young kid has. Just because one 17 year old performs similarly to another (even IF the talent level were the same) that doesn't mean that the two will perform similarly when they are 27.

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I can't believe you are waging this absurd war over multiple threads in a pretty barren section of this message board.

I feel compelled to repost my other reply just because it would be a crime for an interested newcomer to check only this thread and not the other:

You've said that Taillon's stats deserve a little context, but you have provided absolutely no context in your comparison. The point is that you can't really give much context to HS stats because there is so much variation in talent/circumstance from one batter to another, one team to another, one park to another, one region to another, etc. let alone one YEAR to another.

League talent level doesn't even stay anywhere near consistent from one year to the next because we are talking about 15-18 year old kids playing the game.

All that aside, you have to take into account how much projection a young kid has. Just because one 17 year old performs similarly to another (even IF the talent level were the same) that doesn't mean that the two will perform similarly when they are 27.

Couldn't you actually be arguing my point that Taillon's "good" stats aren't an indication of his future success vis-a-vis guys with similar, better, or worse stats?

Those numbers don't SCREAM top 3 pick do they?

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Couldn't you actually be arguing my point that Taillon's "good" stats aren't an indication of his future success vis-a-vis guys with similar, better, or worse stats?

Those numbers don't SCREAM top 3 pick do they?

No, I'm arguing MY point that the stats are not particularly meaningful. I don't think Taillon will be great because of his HS stats. I don't think any other HS pitcher will be a bust solely because of his HS stats.

When evaluating pitchers this young in leagues that are very inconsistent, it's best to consider the pitcher's mechanics, movement, velocity, frame, command, pitchability, makeup etc.

Stats are just an incredibly poor predictor of success among HS pitchers, which is precisely why no one was begging for Taillon's statistics (although they weren't being mysteriously hidden).

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The part that disturbs me about Taillon is the reports that I get that his fastball has little movement, very flat. I really don't care how hard he throws, if the reports that his fastball is straight are correct....Ask Dennis Sarfate how well that has worked for him. It is Keith Law I believe that talks about lack of movement in the FB. That is a red flag to me.

I have not seen Taillon in person, but the video I have seen has him landing strange on a very stiff front leg. Not real sure I love his mechanics from what I have seen. Preface to say i have not seen enough of him to really conclude anything. But what I have seen has not impressed me much.

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The part that disturbs me about Taillon is the reports that I get that his fastball has little movement, very flat. I really don't care how hard he throws, if the reports that his fastball is straight are correct....Ask Dennis Sarfate how well that has worked for him. It is Keith Law I believe that talks about lack of movement in the FB. That is a red flag to me.

I have not seen Taillon in person, but the video I have seen has him landing strange on a very stiff front leg. Not real sure I love his mechanics from what I have seen. Preface to say i have not seen enough of him to really conclude anything. But what I have seen has not impressed me much.

It was discussed right after Law said that, that QUITE a few other people have said that his FB has explosive movement. Not sure why Law said that other than he was trying to back up moving Machado ahead of him in his rankings. I know even a couple people around here have seen him live and had nothing to say about it being flat. I've talked to a couple people personally that had quite the opposite to say about his fastball. I wouldn't worry about it, this time of year you will see things that are totally off the wall and take on a mind of their own, that's how the internet reporting world works.

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It was discussed right after Law said that, that QUITE a few other people have said that his FB has explosive movement. Not sure why Law said that other than he was trying to back up moving Machado ahead of him in his rankings. I know even a couple people around here have seen him live and had nothing to say about it being flat. I've talked to a couple people personally that had quite the opposite to say about his fastball. I wouldn't worry about it, this time of year you will see things that are totally off the wall and take on a mind of their own, that's how the internet reporting world works.

Thanks for posting this. I saw that report by Law too, and was starting to wonder if Whitson would be a better pick at #3.

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Thanks for posting this. I saw that report by Law too, and was starting to wonder if Whitson would be a better pick at #3.

Yup, no problem. I still don't think it's really that close honestly Taillon would be a pretty clear #1 if there was no Harper, and there is a pretty good sized gap after him too. Whitson is pretty good, but this feels like a draft where prospects 3-6 are missing.

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If we end up passing on Tim Lincecum twice, I'm going to key the oriole bird's car. I'm not saying that Taillon is Tim Lincecum. I'm saying that if there is a 10% chance or better that he will be, then you have to take him.

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