The Big 12 may be doomed

[Birds of B'more]

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac10/post/_/id/10239/expansion-frenzy-gets-even-crazier

...the Pac-10 is now looking to expand to 16 teams, with the new six all coming from the Big 12: Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Colorado.

Wow. I had a hunch the Pac-10 might expand sooner than the Big 10 would. But I never saw expansion of the Pac-10 to 16 teams coming. If this happens, then count on the Big 10 going to 16 teams, followed quickly by the SEC. And with Texas possibly out of the equation, I guess the SEC will look at the ACC for new members. And couple this move with the likelihood of Missouri and Nebraska to the Big 10, and I guess we can observe a moment of silence for the Big 12.

[carolinaoriole]

That would definatly be the seismac shift that Jack Swarbrick said that he was concerned would happen.

We could end up with that 4 16 team super conferance scenario.

If we do that could mean the end of the bcs and the begining of a playoff.

And those 64 teams could even decide to have there own basketball tournament in march.

[KansasO'sFan]

This would suck. "We own Texas" would mean nothing anymore!

Seriously though, this does suck from my point of view. Really, for the state of Kansas (even though I hate KU). Neither KSU nor KU is that attractive to other leagues, simply because football is what conferences are looking at (it's all about the Benjamins). KU sucks, and while we are getting better, chances are we won't see the success we saw in the late 90s and early 00s again, at least for the same length of time. If we could sustain that success, then maybe, but probably won't happen unfortunately. And it would take 10 to 20 years straight of pretty high level success for that to happen.

The worst part is that the basketball program is finally getting back to where it used to be, up until the late 80s. And now we may no longer be in a BCS conference (although another one could form).

At least the Big XII owns the rights to the name "Big 16!"

[Birds of B'more]

If this happens, Kansas and Kansas St might have to cast their lot with the Mountain West. Obviously that would be a step down for both, but maybe not as bad as it seems right now. First, word is the MWC may extend an offer to Boise St as early as this Monday in an effort to gain automatic-qualifying status in the BCS. According to the formula the BCS finally released a couple months ago, the MWC meets 2 of the 3 criteria necessary for automatic inclusion of AQ status. The addition of Boise St will strengthen the numbers in those first 2 categories...but unfortunately will not get them over the hump in the 3rd. However, apparently a conference can ask for a waiver. And if Boise St joins the MWC, you have a pretty good group of teams at the top of that conference: Boise St, BYU, TCU and Utah. Also, the aforementioned schools have also been the loudest complainers about the inequities of the current system. In other words, it may be in the BCS's best interest to go ahead and add the MWC + Boise....and if the Big 12 dissolves, that leaves the same number of AQ conferences as right now, which leaves the same number of places for at-large BCS selections.

As for how that helps the KS schools, if they do merge with the MWC they will at least still be in a BCS conference, along with the money that comes with it. Plus, they might be able to raise the basketball profile of the other schools. At the very least, look at it this way....UNLV plays in the MWC, so you can make roadtrips there to see your team play. Vegas baby!

[Majin Buu]

If I am the Texas and Oklahoma schools, I wouldn't be in a hurry to jump ship until I find out what the SEC's plans are.

[Birds of B'more]

Word now is that the ball is in the court of Nebraska, and to a lesser degree Missouri and the Big 10. The Huskers have been given an ultimatum to either pledge their allegiance to the Big 12, or the 6 schools that apparently will be invited to the Pac 10 will accept and move on.

If I am the Texas and Oklahoma schools, I wouldn't be in a hurry to jump ship until I find out what the SEC's plans are.

I read an article online yesterday that speculated that Texas would prefer the Pac 10 over the SEC, namely for academic reasons. Don't know how true that is though, but if Texas prefers the Pac-10, you can bet the other 5 will be following their lead.

If the new schools are added to the Pac 10, that would give the conference coverage in 9 of the top 25 TV markets, more than would be if those schools joined the SEC. Plus, the SEC's TV contracts just began and go for 15 years....who knows if the networks will be willing to renegotiate for an expanded conference? On the other hand the Pac 10's TV contracts end after the 2011-12 school year, right when the new teams would be joining. So the overall earning potential, short-term and long-term, could be greater in an expanded Pac 10.

[Birds of B'more]

This guy, seems to be someone with his ear to the ground on the whole expansion thing. Word today is that Pac-10 presidents gave Commissioner Larry Scott the thumbs up to extend invites to the 6 teams from the Big 12. I guess those same teams will wait to see what Nebraska decides before saying yes or no. It would be a risky move for Nebraska to turn away from the Big 12 unless they are almost 100% certain the Big 10 will invite them.

[Majin Buu]

This guy' date=' seems to be someone with his ear to the ground on the whole expansion thing. Word today is that Pac-10 presidents gave Commissioner Larry Scott the thumbs up to extend invites to the 6 teams from the Big 12. I guess those same teams will wait to see what Nebraska decides before saying yes or no. It would be a risky move for Nebraska to turn away from the Big 12 unless they are almost 100% certain the Big 10 will invite them.[/quote']

I don't know B of B, I'd be curious if all 6 went. I think its going to be very interesting when the Pac-10, Big 10, and possibly the SEC come knocking for the same schools.

[JamesI]

The Big East and Big 12 are going to get absorbed into the Big 10, Pac 10, ACC and SEC.

[Birds of B'more]

I don't know B of B, I'd be curious if all 6 went. I think its going to be very interesting when the Pac-10, Big 10, and possibly the SEC come knocking for the same schools.

The only school out of those 6 the Big 10 would want is Texas. But to get Texas, the Big 10 would also have to take at least Texas A&M and Texas Tech, and maybe even Baylor too. The Big 10 is far less interested in those other schools, plus the two Oklahoma schools, than the Pac 10 seems to be. In fact, word now is that the Big 10 may try to leverage what's happening with the Big 12 to get ND to join the conference and stop there. I think ND might feel like it's in a Catch-22 right now, and could very well break down and accept an invite to the Big 10.

As for the SEC, they have publicly commented that they would respond to whatever happens, but their actions seem to indicate that they are content to remain on the sidelines for now. In other words, the most attractive Big 12 schools may already be gone by the time they decide to act. In that case, they may look to the ACC to expand. Florida St. and Virginia Tech have been brought up as options that might fit what the SEC is looking for.

BTW: the Twitter feed I linked is for OrangeBloods.com. It's a U of Texas-based site that broke the news about the Pac 10 inviting the 6 Big 12 schools. Sounds like the guy has some very good sources....either that or he's Nostradamus.

[carolinaoriole]

The only school out of those 6 the Big 10 would want is Texas. But to get Texas' date=' the Big 10 would also have to take at least Texas A&M and Texas Tech, and maybe even Baylor too. The Big 10 is far less interested in those other schools, plus the two Oklahoma schools, than the Pac 10 seems to be. In fact, word now is that the Big 10 may try to leverage what's happening with the Big 12 to get ND to join the conference and stop there. I think ND might feel like it's in a Catch-22 right now, and could very well break down and accept an invite to the Big 10.

As for the SEC, they have publicly commented that they would respond to whatever happens, but their actions seem to indicate that they are content to remain on the sidelines for now. In other words, the most attractive Big 12 schools may already be gone by the time they decide to act. In that case, they may look to the ACC to expand. Florida St. and Virginia Tech have been brought up as options that might fit what the SEC is looking for.

BTW: the Twitter feed I linked is for OrangeBloods.com. It's a U of Texas-based site that broke the news about the Pac 10 inviting the 6 Big 12 schools. Sounds like the guy has some very good sources....either that or he's Nostradamus.

The Irish may indeed join a conferance but they will not be leveraged to join a particular one.

They will choose or stay Independant.

No doubt they are the team that the big 10 covets.

They should have let N.D. join when they wanted to back when Jess Harper was the coach.

[Greg Pappas]

ACC

1 Boston College

2 Clemson

3 Connecticut

4 Duke

5 Florida State

6 Georgia Tech

7 Maryland

8 Miami (FL)

9 North Carolina

10 North Carolina State

11 Pittsburgh

12 Rutgers

13 Syracuse

14 Virginia

15 Virginia Tech

16 Wake Forest

SEC

1 Alabama

2 Arkansas

3 Auburn

4 Cincinnati

5 Florida

6 Georgia

7 Kentucky

8 Louisville

9 LSU

10 Memphis

11 Mississippi

12 Mississippi State

13 South Carolina

14 Tennessee

15 Vanderbilt

16 West Virginia

Big 16

1 Colorado

2 Illinois

3 Indiana

4 Iowa

5 Kansas

6 Kansas State

7 Michigan

8 Michigan State

9 Minnesota

10 Missouri

11 Nebraska

12 Northwestern

13 Ohio State

14 Penn State

15 Purdue

16 Wisconsin

Pac 16

1 Arizona

2 Arizona State

3 Baylor

4 California

5 Oklahoma

6 Oklahoma State

7 Oregon

8 Oregon State

9 Stanford

10 Texas

11 Texas A&M

12 Texas Tech

13 UCLA

14 USC

15 Washington

16 Washington State

[Birds of B'more]

That's certainly a clean way to do it. Basically the Big 12 and Big East get absorbed into the other 4 conferences. That way no one loses their BCS status. Although the talk is that the four 16-team leagues might break away from the NCAA and for their own organization. Although if they actually try to do that I'd give it about 5 minutes before Congress, the DOJ and the FTC are on their case like flies on crap looking for any inkling of as antitrust violation.

[Orioles West]

The rumors are still not settled how it will all play out. Among the rumors, the Pac-10 may also raid the MWC for Utah and BYU. In turn, the Big 12 is trying to fight back by offering a spot to TCU if Missouri goes to the Big 10.

Last word out of Nebraska is they don't want anything to do with the Big 10.

Texas will not move without Tech, A&M and Baylor to either the Pac-10 or Big-10, unless they get to bring their neighbors.

The MWC is looking to add Boise State, and one columnist here made a great case for Colorado moving to the MWC, instead of the Pac-10.

Big 12 isn't dead yet, and mainly because it looks like Nebraska will stay. This hour at least. The deadline from the conference to both Mizzou and Nebraska is Friday. Although I've heard that deadline could move out to June 15.

Either way, some changes coming, and I'm not sure I like super-duper conferences. More rivalries lost than gained in most cases, and additional travel for student athletes seems somewhat off, if the focus is supposed to include an education.

-Don

[Birds of B'more]

The Irish may indeed join a conferance but they will not be leveraged to join a particular one.

They will choose or stay Independant.

No doubt they are the team that the big 10 covets.

They should have let N.D. join when they wanted to back when Jess Harper was the coach.

See Greg's post below yours. A future conference alignment like that would definitely be enough to leverage ND in to joining the Big 10. What ND has to do is really do their homework to see if something like that could really go down. If the odds look good that it could, then they are taking an extreme risk by remaining independent....because not only will they have be independent for football, but for all of their intercollegiate sports. And that will likely drag down the entire athletic department and take the football program right down with it. Ironically, if ND were to tell the Big 10 tomorrow that they'd join, then I bet the majority of the other stuff being talked about here would never end up happening. That's the Catch-22 I referenced in my last post.