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Looks like it will be Taillon or Machado


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I completely agree. The risk outweighs the reward with Machado. I could see him very easily outgrowing SS and being moved to 3B. I just dont think he has the power for 3B. Dont get me wrong he has a chance to be a very good player and I wont be overly dissapointed if we take him but I would rather see us take Whitson or even Covey, get them at slot and then try to make a big splash later in the draft with players that have fallen ala Coffey and Arrieta. I guess in the same fashion as last year although Whitson is no where close to the reach Hobgood was. Im a very big fan of both Covey and Whitson and for that matter A.J. Cole as well.

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How would people compare Machado to Tim Beckham?

Machado is bigger. I think Beckham (at the time of the draft) was less likely to shift off of short for physical reasons, but Machado's hands may be just as soft and the arm may be a bit better. Both had excellent wrists and bat speed as prep players. Both had power potential projected primarily from bat speed and leverage (not yet realized). Beckham fit the shortstop mold a little better (though he ended-up losing some mobility as he picked-up muscle mass as a pro).

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Machado is bigger. I think Beckham (at the time of the draft) was less likely to shift off of short for physical reasons, but Machado's hands may be just as soft and the arm may be a bit better. Both had excellent wrists and bat speed as prep players. Both had power potential projected primarily from bat speed and leverage (not yet realized). Beckham fit the shortstop mold a little better (though he ended-up losing some mobility as he picked-up muscle mass as a pro).

I have not followed Beckham much since he didnt fall to us a few years ago. My question is how is he looking in the minors? Is he progressing and is a a sure bet to stay at SS?

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The Orioles should draft whoever they evaluate as the best talent. It makes no sense to argue that a player shouldn't be signed to a 6M signing bonus if he doesn't project as a number 3 or 4 hitter. If the organization believes that the player will be a legitimate starter at the major league level, and he infact becomes a legitimate starter, it's money well spent.

It won't set an organization back paying a little extra to a draft pick, however, it will set an organization back when the team passes on a future star in order to save a few bucks and ends up with a player who never reaches the majors. What matters most is that the draft pick develops into a major league player who can help the team.

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I have not followed Beckham much since he didnt fall to us a few years ago. My question is how is he looking in the minors? Is he progressing and is a a sure bet to stay at SS?

Evaluators split on defensive position. Some think he added too much muscle and lost too much range to be a future SS. He's still at short, though, this year with A-Adv. Charlotte.

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I think Machado would be a good pick...Judging by the way the Orioles develop hitters, I would prefer them to go with Colon but I certainly would be happy with the Machado pick...

That being said, I hope Taillon is the one who is there for us and I would prefer Colon over Machado...just because I don't have confidence in the O's, not because I dislike the pick or Machado himself.

This is exactly where I am. The O's have developed no good high school hitters in the last 20 years--not one. (Brandon Snyder is the best we've produced, and there are doubts that he'll ever contribute in the majors). Machado may have great tools but almost all high school players have to learn about plate discipline, strike zone judgment, pitch recognition, etc. This system has no demonstrated ability to teach those skills to a young hitter.

Colon may have a lower ceiling but it's still a pretty darn good ceiling, and his chance of reaching it is much higher than Machado's, at least in this organization. And let's face it, he'll be ready much sooner, and that has to matter too, given our sorry SS situation at the major league level and the complete lack of advanced SS talent in the pipeline.

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I think he's the third best HS bat. Were he a 3B I think he fits better in the range I have Josh Sale -- somewhere between 17-25. I think he may stick at SS, but there are other bats I prefer. Were he a surefire SS or at least had 2B/CF as a fallback, he'd be top 5 for me.

Stolte, why don't you consider 2B a fallback position for Machado? I understand that he might outgrow SS, but 2B requires a little less range and fleet-footedness, no? Why couldn't he shift over there where his bat would still play very well?

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The Orioles should draft whoever they evaluate as the best talent. It makes no sense to argue that a player shouldn't be signed to a 6M signing bonus if he doesn't project as a number 3 or 4 hitter. If the organization believes that the player will be a legitimate starter at the major league level, and he infact becomes a legitimate starter, it's money well spent.

It won't set an organization back paying a little extra to a draft pick, however, it will set an organization back when the team passes on a future star in order to save a few bucks and ends up with a player who never reaches the majors. What matters most is that the draft pick develops into a major league player who can help the team.

Agreed the Orioles should draft whoever is deemed the top talent. However, you go into every draft thinking your first round selection will be a starter at the MLB level so its not as simple as saying its money well spent when the guy becomes a starter for the big club. Of course he is, but its the misses, that all teams encounter, that are sunk costs. No matter how you cut it, every MLB team has to allocate thier resources and every additional dollar allocated to one pick is money you can't give to another prospect. So it can't always be a matter of give'em what they want. Now, if the prospect is extra special, Strasburg, Harper, etc.. you have to deviate and spend more as the risk/reward profile makes it smart money.

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