Top Players still on the board

[LookinUp]

I thought that too, but he only played 34 games and got 94 AB with them. I'm sure he could have gotten a few of those behind the plate here and then a couple at DH. He only hit 4 HR and 14 RBI for them, that's not too much to expect in 2 months.

Or maybe I'm just wrong... :laughlol:

[mcgraw238]

Would Zaun have definitely still been a type B if he had stayed with the O's? I'm assuming he got a lot more playing time with Tampa Bay.

Also, depends on what Castellanos is asking for. After signing Machado for 6+, it's a safe bet (not saying I agree) that the O's wouldn't have been looking for a 3-4 M signability slide. I'm expecting slot signings with a couple of overslots, but I doubt the total bonuses are much over 10M.

Good point about Zaun's playing time. I don't know about the O's, but I'm not giving Machado $6 million. I'll put $4-4.5 million on the table and make him walk away. That is significant overslot money for a very nice HS SS, but one that I don't think is generational or anything. The difference is 2, maybe 3, additional overslot guys.

[allstar1579]

Or maybe I'm just wrong... :laughlol:

Don't worry, I didn't know until well after I had made my statement...I just felt a lot better about it after I looked it up.

[mcgraw238]

Don't forget the cash saved. So the equation is more like players + Cash vs Comp picks if the player is type A or B and arbitration is offered and declined. My guess is they would rather trade the player.

I thought about that but didn't put it into the analysis. The cash saved is really the reason why the system is working the way it is, by that I mean broken. A team like Pitt, KC, etc. has a player that profiles as a comp pick that they flip to the Red Sox for a marginal prospect. The team saves several hundred thousand dollars (perhaps millions) from the remainder of the contract. At the season end, the Red Sox offer arbitration, which the player refuses, and is awarded a pick. It's, as SG said, really trading draft picks.

[Can_of_corn]

I thought about that but didn't put it into the analysis. The cash saved is really the reason why the system is working the way it is, by that I mean broken. A team like Pitt, KC, etc. has a player that profiles as a comp pick that they flip to the Red Sox for a marginal prospect. The team saves several hundred thousand dollars (perhaps millions) from the remainder of the contract. At the season end, the Red Sox offer arbitration, which the player refuses, and is awarded a pick. It's, as SG said, really trading draft picks.

There is also the very real concern, with smaller market teams, of players accepting arbitration. The Rays' closer outleveraged the Braves last offseason by accepting arbitration after the Braves had already spent money on his replacement.

[centralpaosfan]

The top three picks in the last 2 drafts all got 6M or more, including HS hitters Hosmer and Tate. With Boras representing Machado, you might as well not even have drafted him if you expect to put 4.5M on the table. If you believe Machado is a premium talent, you pay him. If not, you don't draft him at #3. The Orioles did so I suspect they'll pay him.

Is it possible we don't reach a deal and have the #1 and #3 pick in next years draft?

[mcgraw238]

The top three picks in the last 2 drafts all got 6M or more, including HS hitters Hosmer and Tate. With Boras representing Machado, you might as well not even have drafted him if you expect to put 4.5M on the table. If you believe Machado is a premium talent, you pay him. If not, you don't draft him at #3. The Orioles did so I suspect they'll pay him.

Donovan Tate was a two-sport star exception. It is widely accepted in the industry that the two-sport guys warrant a premium because your buying away thier ability to go play the other sport. Austin Jackson was one of these guys; Zach Lee is another. One of the issues with the proposed fixed slotting system is how to address this issue and keep from losing these types of talents to the other sports.

Hosmer was a guy that scouts considered to be a very advanced power bat that warranted going into the rare bonus territory. I have yet to see anything about Machado that convinces me that he is an exceptional talent (exceptional relative to the #3 pick in the draft year in and year out) that warrants going into the elite bonus money range. As such, $4-$4.5 million is well above slot...I have no problem letting Boras and the kid choose another path. In fact, in some ways I'd prefer it it this selection is going to prevent us from spending money on over slot talent later in the draft.

So, to me, there is a reason for the difference in the bonus money that was received by recent #3 guys.

[mcgraw238]

It would be #1 and #4. Of course it's possible. Although next years draft is supposed to be really good at the top, I don't see having those two picks as preferable. Jordan usually seems to have a pretty good handle on what it will take to sign these guys. From his comments yesterday, I'm hoping he doesn't get blindsided by Boras. It sounded like Joe was confident of knowing what it would take to sign Machado and the fact that it would get done.

I read somewhere, don't recall the source, that teams regarded Machado as an easier sign than Taillon.

[QBsILLEST1]

I doubt any of these guys falls to us in Round 3, but here are the top 5 players still on the board per Baseball America. A couple of interesting 1st round names: AJ Cole and Stetson Allie

15. Stetson Allie, rhp, St. Edward HS, Lakewood, Ohio

20. Brandon Workman, rhp, Texas

23. Brett Eibner, rhp/of, Arkansas

25. A.J. Cole, rhp, Oviedo (Fla.) HS

28. Austin Wilson, of, Harvard-Westlake School, Studio City, Calif.

Hmm....I wonder if Cole will continue to drop. I am sure he is asking for top of the 1st round $$. If he is, I think JJ may pull the trigger. He was pre-season by some analysts rated higher than Taillon(though I didn't agree). He may end up throwing as hard as Taillon with the possibility for better command. Getting him would certainly make me feel 100% better about missing out on Taillon. It would be sweet to have a TOR arm like Cole AND a 5 tool SS to go along with it.

Isn't Jesse Hahn still on the board as well?

[QBsILLEST1]

I read somewhere, don't recall the source, that teams regarded Machado as an easier sign than Taillon.

He is, he wants to provide for his family......Neither are exactly tough signs IMO like Tate was, but both will command some big bucks....

[mcgraw238]

I'm going to argue both points. The two sport thing is used by teams to make believe they aren't giving players as much money as they really are. I believe they are allowed to spread the money out for two sport stars. Donovan Tate's 6.25M bonus is allowed to be spread over 5 years because he's two sport guy. Tate had football as leverage. Machado has time as leverage. Don't think for a second that Boras won't use that. College juniors lose leverage by not signing and some have still done it. HS players have the leverage whether they are two sport stars or not.

As far as Hosmer vs. Machado goes. Hosmer was considered an elite bat. Machado is considered an elite player by most. Let's go on record in this thread. I believe the O's will sign Machado for 6M or more. I believe if the top offer is 4.2M, that Boras will have him go to a JUCO and re-enter the draft next year. We'll see.

Regarding the two sport thing, it may be make believe but you just acknowledged its a factor that Machado doesn't have. As far as the time angle, I'm not sure I agree for the reasons I've outlined before: (1) likely to go lower (perhaps significantly) in subsequent draft and (2) fixed slotting system on horizon. I'll go on record as saying I don't think Machado gets $6 million. In the end its the O's call, I'm more advocating the position I would take as well as the consequences and contingency plans in case he doesn't sign. For the record, I think he'd take $4-$4.5.

[odogs101]

Kevin Goldstein "tweeted" that Allie is asking for 3 million to sign.

[mapierce]

Great arm and it's only money. lol

The Yankees or Red Sox will take him somewhere down the line. I think the O's will overslot some guys but judging by last year, they won't go that high on an overslot.

Just went to Pitt!

[nevadaO]

Just went to Pitt!

Wow, another great pick by Pittsburgh. Didn't expect them to spend like that.

[berto]

Nice bold pick of Allie by Pittsburgh after picking Taillon. If they do sign him it is great value.