The Orioles don't seem to be having a good draft

[makoman]

This draft is pretty uninspiring. After Machado it's doubtful any of these guys make it to the majors. Maybe Mummey and Bridwell. The Klein and Narron picks were like....why????

By most accounts Klein sounds like he could be the first person from our draft class to make the majors.

[Frobby]

I think the problem is that this just seems like a solid draft. But in our position we should have more than solid drafts. We should have a draft that experts are raving about like they do for the drafts of teams like the Red Sox, Marlins etc.

We do not spend in FA, we do not spend internationally and now please forgive me if I am disappointing that we did not take the players other teams took in the 3rd, 4th and 5th round, which by most experts are seen as safer bets than the players Jordan took.

With no supplemental picks or 2nd round pick, it's hard to have really great draft that others will rave about. I think there are two major factors in how good this draft will turn out to be:

(1) How good will Manny Machado turn out to be? If he turns into an above average starting SS with some power, it's a great draft almost no matter what else happens.

(2) Are we able to sign all the top 10 guys, plus Urban? A lot of our guys slipped slightly in the draft due to signability issues. If we sign them, it's an above average draft; if we don't, it quickly becomes below average.

I think Mummey and Narron are pretty key. Opinion seems to vary widely on Mummey, folks either think he's a very good prospect or a total reach. I'll be watching him like a hawk this summer. With Narron, there's a significant question whether he'll sign; get him signed, and he's a good pick.

[LookinUp]

W/o commenting on what we picked, it's clear to me that there are hundreds of projectible players available in the draft. We got some. It's how we develop them that matters most.

[bluehens45]

I like Mummey alot. Just not where he was drafted. When you have guys like Kyle Blair, James Paxton, Bryan Morgado, Chad Lewis, Hunter Morris, and Sam Dyson. I would have loved one of Paxton, Morris, or Blair. i would have went:

Machado

Cole

Paxton/Blair

[Stotle]

With no supplemental picks or 2nd round pick, it's hard to have really great draft that others will rave about. I think there are two major factors in how good this draft will turn out to be:

(1) How good will Manny Machado turn out to be? If he turns into an above average starting SS with some power, it's a great draft almost no matter what else happens.

(2) Are we able to sign all the top 10 guys, plus Urban? A lot of our guys slipped slightly in the draft due to signability issues. If we sign them, it's an above average draft; if we don't, it quickly becomes below average.

I think Mummey and Narron are pretty key. Opinion seems to vary widely on Mummey, folks either think he's a very good prospect or a total reach. I'll be watching him like a hawk this summer. With Narron, there's a significant question whether he'll sign; get him signed, and he's a good pick.

Just playing devil's advocate, but there would have been glowing reviews from BA and the like for something like:

1:3 Machado

3:3 Cole

4:3 Paxton

5:3 Hahn

or

1:3 Machado

3:3 Rutledge

4:3 Cecchini

5:3 Hahn

Granted, Cecchini would be a tougher signing for BAL than he is for BOS. But it isn't like there weren't players that dropped that BAL could have popped and signed to make up for the 2nd round pick. My guess is the preference was to spread over a good number of HS and JuCos willing to sign for low six figures, rather than making the big investment in a couple of high six figure guys. Machado is going to chew through a lot, too, I imagine.

[Frobby]

Just playing devil's advocate, but there would have been glowing reviews from BA and the like for something like:

1:3 Machado

3:3 Cole

4:3 Paxton

5:3 Hahn

or

1:3 Machado

3:3 Rutledge

4:3 Cecchini

5:3 Hahn

Granted, Cecchini would be a tougher signing for BAL than he is for BOS. But it isn't like there weren't players that dropped that BAL could have popped and signed to make up for the 2nd round pick. My guess is the preference was to spread over a good number of HS and JuCos willing to sign for low six figures, rather than making the big investment in a couple of high six figure guys. Machado is going to chew through a lot, too, I imagine.

Understand that I don't know squat about any of these guys. What I do know is that if BA likes a guy better than Jordan does (or not as much as Jordan does), that doesn't necessarily mean that BA is right and Jordan is wrong and we would have been better off picking the guys BA ranked higher. Someone like you, who really studies this stuff, looks at film, etc., can have an opinion on that; but to someone like me these are just a bunch of young guys and I really have no idea who will be better than who.

[bluehens45]

I think that the 2 Guys we are going to look back on and say what if are AJ Cole and James Paxton. I just dont see how in the world anyone could say they like Klein more then Cole. I like Klein just not with what was still around. Paxton is another guy that could possibly move fast and lefties like him dont grow on trees. He cant go back to collge so he is pretty much a lock to sign. Then again im not a scout.

[Stotle]

Understand that I don't know squat about any of these guys. What I do know is that if BA likes a guy better than Jordan does (or not as much as Jordan does), that doesn't necessarily mean that BA is right and Jordan is wrong and we would have been better off picking the guys BA ranked higher. Someone like you, who really studies this stuff, looks at film, etc., can have an opinion on that; but to someone like me these are just a bunch of young guys and I really have no idea who will be better than who.

I understand. I was just responding to your comment that it's tough to have an impressive class without a 2nd Rounder. Cole, Cecchini, Hahn were all considered first round talents and slipped (Cole for $$, Cecchini because he missed the spring with knee surgery, Hahn because he left his start last weekend early with forearm tightness).

[tilgaham]

Why didn't we pick AJ Cole in round 3?

That really, really upset me.

[LookinUp]

My guess is the preference was to spread over a good number of HS and JuCos willing to sign for low six figures, rather than making the big investment in a couple of high six figure guys. Machado is going to chew through a lot, too, I imagine.

This is a valid strategy as far as I'm concerned, particularly when we consider what is being spent in the first round.

Whether we like it or not, Baltimore has a draft budget. They had to decide on whether to blow through it on 3-4 better known/pedigree players and a bunch of slot types or on several guys that we liked, but were somewhat closer to slot.

This seems to fit directly into AM's quantity over quality philosophy. The question is whether we skipped over some quality guys whose ultimate value exceeds the value of the quantity that we'll hopefully end up with.

[PBR Street Gang]

Why were they why?

Klein

College Statistics:Year 	Age 	G 	GS 	ERA 	IP 	H 	HR 	BB 	K 	WHIP2008 	19 	7 	2 	7.64 	17.2 	28 	0 	11 	8 	1.752009* 	20 									2010 	21 	35 	0 	2.03 	44.1 	35 	3 	8 	48 	.97

Narron

Batting 	        GP	Avg	PA	AB	R	H	RBI	2B	3B	HR Season Totals:	27	.317	108	63	36	20	30	6	2	7

Why should we as fans be excited about these guys? Klein was injured in '09 Narron has a .317 average in HS and everyone is typing with their left hand only when they talk about him? Even one of his scouting videos has him striking out. Never took a full swing at 6 pitches.

[Stotle]

This is a valid strategy as far as I'm concerned, particularly when we consider what is being spent in the first round.

Whether we like it or not, Baltimore has a draft budget. They had to decide on whether to blow through it on 3-4 better known/pedigree players and a bunch of slot types or on several guys that we liked, but were somewhat closer to slot.

This seems to fit directly into AM's quantity over quality philosophy. The question is whether we skipped over some quality guys whose ultimate value exceeds the value of the quantity that we'll hopefully end up with.

I think it's an interesting approach and it will be curious to see how it pans out. BAL is essentially trying to grab (approximating) future 3rd to 5th round talent by paying a "now" premium on the risk. The hope is then that when you scout well and pick the right guys, you have the outside shot of someone developing into a top 100 talent.

Ultimately, the success of the strategy hinges on the quality of your scouting and, maybe more importantly, your development.

[makoman]

Klein

Narron

Batting 	        GP	Avg	PA	AB	R	H	RBI	2B	3B	HR Season Totals:	27	.317	108	63	36	20	30	6	2	7

Why should we as fans be excited about these guys? Klein was injured in '09 Narron has a .317 average in HS and everyone is typing with their left hand only when they talk about him? Even one of his scouting videos has him striking out. Never took a full swing at 6 pitches.

What was his BABIP? His LD%? In those 63 ABs did he get any strikes to see or was he swinging at crap cause he was tired of walking all the time? Was he so much better than his teammates that he was pitched around essentially every at bat? What were his junior year stats?

I don't know the answers to these questions. Neither do you. I do know that, especially in high school, stats don't tell us everything and it pays to have actually seen him play. Seems he was decently regarded, not just by the O's, there must be some reason for that despite a relatively pedestrian AVG. But you seem to be negative about everyone, so what can I say?

[PBR Street Gang]

What was his BABIP? His LD%? In those 63 ABs did he get any strikes to see or was he swinging at crap cause he was tired of walking all the time? Was he so much better than his teammates that he was pitched around essentially every at bat? What were his junior year stats?

I don't know the answers to these questions. Neither do you. I do know that, especially in high school, stats don't tell us everything and it pays to have actually seen him play. Seems he was decently regarded, not just by the O's, there must be some reason for that despite a relatively pedestrian AVG. But you seem to be negative about everyone, so what can I say?

Do you ever wonder if the guy got picked/chosen for all of the futures games because his dad played MLB? Coaches son so to speak. He was given more of the benefit of the doubt? Because of politics someone just as worthy or even more worthy was left off the team even though he out played the "coaches kid".

I'm cynical because nothing I've seen says the guy is worth a $1 million signing bonus. Some want to accept faith, however, I prefer results. I prefer results from guys like Adams and Henson and Hoes and Avery and Snyder and Rowell and Beato and Bascom and Hudson and Hobgood and Townsend. How many of those guys that the O's picked in the first few rounds can you see as an everyday MLB BB player?

[PBR Street Gang]

I'm curious as to what Stotle, Greg and Crawdaddy's draft grade for the O's is too BTW?