Rendon and an Ace?

[ThisIsOurHouse]

(1) While I agree that that would not be a bad rotation, it's not going to win a WS, I'd really like to get a young ace, and I think next year's crop of SPs has A LOT of potential.

(2) Of course this is likely, however, there will also be some very good HS pitchers who improve their stock, we would have lots of options. I just feel that the first round next year will be a lot better than this year. Maybe I'm wrong, we can come back to this later if I turn out to be wrong.

A couple teams come to mind, 2002 Anahiem Angels, 2005 Chicago White Sox, and 2006 St. Louis Cardinals all didn't have aces. Infact the Cardinals used Jeff Weaver as a starter in game 2. They had Carpenter but really no one that great behind him, plus Carpenter only pitched one game in the series. I would much rather have consistency through all five of my starters then have one guy do great and then rely on some back end starters.

I'm not saying pitching is not important because historically the O's have won championships with high quality pitching, however if some how we make it to a world series that means that a couple of our pitchers caught fire and started shutting down their opponents. It only takes one great year to win the series, although none of our pitchers project to be year in year out aces, that doesn't mean a guy like Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, or even Britton can't put up an ace like year.

Our minor league teams needs a big bat, Most scouts agree that Machado has potential to be that guy, and quite frankly our team is long from competing, so if Machado has to take four years then so be it because by 2014 our pitchers will hit there prime, Wieters will be raising hell on the AL east, Markakis will still be solid, a big bat should be signed to play first base, and Rendon and Machado will be ready to make one of the best left sides of the infield in the league. That in my opinion is our plan for success.

I do not know much about the 2011 pitching class but are there really 3 deep with sure thing aces? I find that hard to believe, lets keep with what we have.

[QBsILLEST1]

A couple teams come to mind, 2002 Anahiem Angels, 2005 Chicago White Sox, and 2006 St. Louis Cardinals all didn't have aces. Infact the Cardinals used Jeff Weaver as a starter in game 2. They had Carpenter but really no one that great behind him, plus Carpenter only pitched one game in the series. I would much rather have consistency through all five of my starters then have one guy do great and then rely on some back end starters.

I'm not saying pitching is not important because historically the O's have won championships with high quality pitching, however if some how we make it to a world series that means that a couple of our pitchers caught fire and started shutting down their opponents. It only takes one great year to win the series, although none of our pitchers project to be year in year out aces, that doesn't mean a guy like Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, or even Britton can't put up an ace like year.

Our minor league teams needs a big bat, Most scouts agree that Machado has potential to be that guy, and quite frankly our team is long from competing, so if Machado has to take four years then so be it because by 2014 our pitchers will hit there prime, Wieters will be raising hell on the AL east, Markakis will still be solid, a big bat should be signed to play first base, and Rendon and Machado will be ready to make one of the best left sides of the infield in the league. That in my opinion is our plan for success.

I do not know much about the 2011 pitching class but are there really 3 deep with sure thing aces? I find that hard to believe, lets keep with what we have.

Not 1 of the pitchers in the upcoming draft is a sure thing ace. Any one of them has the ability to develop into one, but all 3 lack something to keep them from being an ace. But thats no slight on them or anyone, it is very rare to have a surething ace in a draft like Strasburg was. Cole is great, and has the best raw stuff, but doesn't have the command/control nor does he have great pitchability or consistent secondaries. People love his changeup which looks great, but suddenly this year, his slider deserted him. Stotle said he had a nasty slider in the super regionals, but when I saw him in his more recent game, it was his weakest pitch and uber-inconsistent. It flashed plus a few times, but I wasn't as impressed. I also know that 94-98 MPH pitches can still get hammered when thrown down the middle of the plate belt high. I like Cole a lot, but I think I was expecting more from him than I saw.

Purke has the entire package, minus the great and dominant FB you'd like to see in an ace. It kinda confuses me how his 94 mph top end FB is "plenty hard" as someone said over at projectprospect.com, but Matusz's 94 MPH FB is an average at best pitch...... When I watched Purke pitch, he was more 90-91 with the pitch and spotted it well. I honestly see him as more of a #2(like Matusz).

Jungmann I like the most, though having only seen him on videos compared to the other 2 above mentioned pitchers I have watched in-game(from a TV). BUT, he has more projection than either of the other SPs mentioned and has maybe the 2nd best raw stuff. He projects to have pretty good command and 3 above average to plus pitches. Sounds to me like he has the best chance to be a true #1 SP, but you are banking on projection. Also banking on him learning to repeat his delivery better....

[mcgraw238]

Not 1 of the pitchers in the upcoming draft is a sure thing ace. Any one of them has the ability to develop into one, but all 3 lack something to keep them from being an ace. But thats no slight on them or anyone, it is very rare to have a surething ace in a draft like Strasburg was. Cole is great, and has the best raw stuff, but doesn't have the command/control nor does he have great pitchability or consistent secondaries. People love his changeup which looks great, but suddenly this year, his slider deserted him. Stotle said he had a nasty slider in the super regionals, but when I saw him in his more recent game, it was his weakest pitch and uber-inconsistent. It flashed plus a few times, but I wasn't as impressed. I also know that 94-98 MPH pitches can still get hammered when thrown down the middle of the plate belt high. I like Cole a lot, but I think I was expecting more from him than I saw.

Purke has the entire package, minus the great and dominant FB you'd like to see in an ace. It kinda confuses me how his 94 mph top end FB is "plenty hard" as someone said over at projectprospect.com, but Matusz's 94 MPH FB is an average at best pitch...... When I watched Purke pitch, he was more 90-91 with the pitch and spotted it well. I honestly see him as more of a #2(like Matusz).

Jungmann I like the most, though having only seen him on videos compared to the other 2 above mentioned pitchers I have watched in-game(from a TV). BUT, he has more projection than either of the other SPs mentioned and has maybe the 2nd best raw stuff. He projects to have pretty good command and 3 above average to plus pitches. Sounds to me like he has the best chance to be a true #1 SP, but you are banking on projection. Also banking on him learning to repeat his delivery better....

I have very little problem thinking that Machado would have been drafted behind Cole, Purke, and Jungmann (and perhap several other college arms) if they were all in the recent draft. Stotle has pointed out many times (and I agree) that so much of Machado's value is tied to his sticking at SS, which is not a given. He has a nice bat but it is not in the super elite category of previous top 3 high school hitters.

I think your selling Cole real short. I am real comforable with the expectation that he will be a TOR starter once he settles into a big league career. I very much like the Verlander comp. He seems to hide his fastball well making it difficult for the hitter to pick up. I do like Purke and Jungmann as well. Using the Strasburg comp is not fair to any of these guys but the upcoming class of pitchers is very very deep.

I don't think I have ever seen Matusz throw a 94 MPH FB. I really wish this would be put to rest because he simply has not had that kind of heat during his tenure in the bigs.

I wouldn't advocvate a strategy of simply choosing not to sign Machado as he is a good prospect and was one of the best 3 players (according to most) in this class. However, its nice to have options if Boras seeks insane money to sign him. The line has to be drawn somewhere. As far as development goes, I think its pretty easy to predict that Cole, Purke and Jungmann will all reach the bigs before Machado.

[allstar1579]

I have very little problem thinking that Machado would have been drafted behind Cole, Purke, and Jungmann (and perhap several other college arms) if they were all in the recent draft. Stotle has pointed out many times (and I agree) that so much of Machado's value is tied to his sticking at SS, which is not a given. He has a nice bat but it is not in the super elite category of previous top 3 high school hitters.

I think your selling Cole real short. I am real comforable with the expectation that he will be a TOR starter once he settles into a big league career. I very much like the Verlander comp. He seems to hide his fastball well making it difficult for the hitter to pick up. I do like Purke and Jungmann as well. Using the Strasburg comp is not fair to any of these guys but the upcoming class of pitchers is very very deep.

I don't think I have ever seen Matusz throw a 94 MPH FB. I really wish this would be put to rest because he simply has not had that kind of heat during his tenure in the bigs.

I wouldn't advocvate a strategy of simply choosing not to sign Machado as he is a good prospect and was one of the best 3 players (according to most) in this class. However, its nice to have options if Boras seeks insane money to sign him. The line has to be drawn somewhere. As far as development goes, I think its pretty easy to predict that Cole, Purke and Jungmann will all reach the bigs before Machado.

While he sits 90-91 most of the time, he can dial it up to 94 when he wants to, I have seen him do it repeatedly and as late as the 8th inning of a game. There is a difference between a guy "sitting" 94 and "touching" 94 that gets overlooked around here quite often.

[QBsILLEST1]

I have very little problem thinking that Machado would have been drafted behind Cole, Purke, and Jungmann (and perhap several other college arms) if they were all in the recent draft. Stotle has pointed out many times (and I agree) that so much of Machado's value is tied to his sticking at SS, which is not a given. He has a nice bat but it is not in the super elite category of previous top 3 high school hitters.

I think your selling Cole real short. I am real comforable with the expectation that he will be a TOR starter once he settles into a big league career. I very much like the Verlander comp. He seems to hide his fastball well making it difficult for the hitter to pick up. I do like Purke and Jungmann as well. Using the Strasburg comp is not fair to any of these guys but the upcoming class of pitchers is very very deep.

I don't think I have ever seen Matusz throw a 94 MPH FB. I really wish this would be put to rest because he simply has not had that kind of heat during his tenure in the bigs.

I wouldn't advocvate a strategy of simply choosing not to sign Machado as he is a good prospect and was one of the best 3 players (according to most) in this class. However, its nice to have options if Boras seeks insane money to sign him. The line has to be drawn somewhere. As far as development goes, I think its pretty easy to predict that Cole, Purke and Jungmann will all reach the bigs before Machado.

I wasn't using a STrasburg comp. I was saying that no pitcher is a surefire TOR SP except someone like Strasburg(plus-plus stuff, plus command, makeup, pitchability). If your command is below average and you pitch up in the zone, you are not a surefire TOR SP.....It is a difference in being "comfortable" with the thought that Cole could be a TOR once he settles in and saying that the guy is a surefire ace. To argue on semantics, to me a TOR and an ACE are not the same thing, but thats an argument all in its own which has been revisited here all too much....

I agree on Machado. I really am not that big on him, but I didn't even make mention of Machado in the post you replied to, so I dunno exactly what you are referring to.....If you read anything about Machado's intentions to sign, you would see that there isn't a very good chance he doesn't sign. He wants the payday to help out his family....

[mcgraw238]

I wasn't using a STrasburg comp. I was saying that no pitcher is a surefire TOR SP except someone like Strasburg(plus-plus stuff, plus command, makeup, pitchability). If your command is below average and you pitch up in the zone, you are not a surefire TOR SP.....It is a difference in being "comfortable" with the thought that Cole could be a TOR once he settles in and saying that the guy is a surefire ace. To argue on semantics, to me a TOR and an ACE are not the same thing, but thats an argument all in its own which has been revisited here all too much....

I agree on Machado. I really am not that big on him, but I didn't even make mention of Machado in the post you replied to, so I dunno exactly what you are referring to.....If you read anything about Machado's intentions to sign, you would see that there isn't a very good chance he doesn't sign. He wants the payday to help out his family....

I know you were not using the Strasburg comp...In fact I think you were saying its not fair to do so given the uniqueness of Strasburg as a prospect. However, I think Strasburg is tainting the mix with the upcoming crop as he is now some sort of barometer for pitching prospects, which just isn't fair. For my money, the upcoming crop of arms measures up very well relative to other (non-Strasburg guys) that have gone at, or near, the top of the draft. All of those guys have had something keeping them from being "sure-fire TOR SP."

This entire thread is about whether we should sign Machado or take the #4 pick in the draft in 2011. I agree he is likely to sign; I think we should sign him; I'm not sure I would go into the $6 million bonus range to sign him and I don't think we will have to, but that's just me.

[QBsILLEST1]

I know you were not using the Strasburg comp...In fact I think you were saying its not fair to do so given the uniqueness of Strasburg as a prospect. However, I think Strasburg is tainting the mix with the upcoming crop as he is now some sort of barometer for pitching prospects, which just isn't fair. For my money, the upcoming crop of arms measures up very well relative to other (non-Strasburg guys) that have gone at, or near, the top of the draft. All of those guys have had something keeping them from being "sure-fire TOR SP."

This entire thread is about whether we should sign Machado or take the #4 pick in the draft in 2011. I agree he is likely to sign; I think we should sign him; I'm not sure I would go into the $6 million bonus range to sign him and I don't think we will have to, but that's just me.

I think we both actually agree here on just about every point. I just had an issue with the phrase, "surefire TOR SP" because really other than STrasburg and Prior, there hasn't been such a thing.

And I agree, it shouldn't take $6M to sign Machado. I am thinking $4M.......

[mcgraw238]

I think we both actually agree here on just about every point. I just had an issue with the phrase, "surefire TOR SP" because really other than STrasburg and Prior, there hasn't been such a thing.

And I agree, it shouldn't take $6M to sign Machado. I am thinking $4M.......

Yah...we're on the same page. I knew you were responding to the previous poster about the question on 3 possible "sure thing aces" and I think your answer was correct. Its really not a fair statement ("sure thing aces") to say about any draft prospect. But I do like all 3 of those guys a whole lot and would take any 1 of them over Machado right now (and I happen to like Machado). I think I like Cole more than you do as this point.

[QBsILLEST1]

Yah...we're on the same page. I knew you were responding to the previous poster about the question on 3 possible "sure thing aces" and I think your answer was correct. Its really not a fair statement ("sure thing aces") to say about any draft prospect. But I do like all 3 of those guys a whole lot and would take any 1 of them over Machado right now (and I happen to like Machado). I think I like Cole more than you do as this point.

I too like Cole, Jungmann and Purke more than Machado. As a matter of fact, I like Gray, Bauer, Bundy and Bradley more than Machado as well. I am not that high on Machado at all, and in my top 10 for next year's draft wouldn't include Machado.

I am probably unfairly down on Cole, I just had tremendous expectations for him and when I saw him I was a bit let down.

[H0smash]

Not 1 of the pitchers in the upcoming draft is a sure thing ace. Any one of them has the ability to develop into one, but all 3 lack something to keep them from being an ace. But thats no slight on them or anyone, it is very rare to have a surething ace in a draft like Strasburg was. Cole is great, and has the best raw stuff, but doesn't have the command/control nor does he have great pitchability or consistent secondaries. People love his changeup which looks great, but suddenly this year, his slider deserted him. Stotle said he had a nasty slider in the super regionals, but when I saw him in his more recent game, it was his weakest pitch and uber-inconsistent. It flashed plus a few times, but I wasn't as impressed. I also know that 94-98 MPH pitches can still get hammered when thrown down the middle of the plate belt high. I like Cole a lot, but I think I was expecting more from him than I saw.

Purke has the entire package, minus the great and dominant FB you'd like to see in an ace. It kinda confuses me how his 94 mph top end FB is "plenty hard" as someone said over at projectprospect.com, but Matusz's 94 MPH FB is an average at best pitch...... When I watched Purke pitch, he was more 90-91 with the pitch and spotted it well. I honestly see him as more of a #2(like Matusz).

Jungmann I like the most, though having only seen him on videos compared to the other 2 above mentioned pitchers I have watched in-game(from a TV). BUT, he has more projection than either of the other SPs mentioned and has maybe the 2nd best raw stuff. He projects to have pretty good command and 3 above average to plus pitches. Sounds to me like he has the best chance to be a true #1 SP, but you are banking on projection. Also banking on him learning to repeat his delivery better....

That's not really fair considering that Machado isn't a sure-thing to stick at SS. Also, I went through Matusz' games all the way back to May 15 on PitchFX, his make speed was 92.6, he does not throw 94 mph.

[allstar1579]

That's not really fair considering that Machado isn't a sure-thing to stick at SS. Also, I went through Matusz' games all the way back to May 15 on PitchFX, his make speed was 92.6, he does not throw 94 mph.

True that, but I'd say all 3 of them have a good chance at being anywhere from a #3 to an ace, depending on how they continue to develop.

And he can throw 94, it's just a matter of he's doing it or not. Stats tell you a story of what has happened and then let you draw conclusions on what CAN be done going forward, sometimes around here we forget that they don't tell the entire story.

[H0smash]

Also, let me make clear that I don't think any of the three pitchers are "sure-fire" aces, however, I do think they will get to the ML faster than Machado and have better careers. I think our likely pick would be Jungmann, and I love his potential, I would love to have a true power-guy in our rotation, following that with a finesse pitcher like Matusz would be awesome.

I don't hate the Machado pick, though, I just think it speaks to the depth of the '10 class (especially in the first round) vs. the depth of the '11 class. The strategy I wanted to use is kind of trying to make up for the probable mistake of taking Hobgood over guys like Matzek last year as well, in the end, though, I think we'll sign Machado. It's probably the right move, but I do sort of wish we could trade picks, I would be willing to give up a nice package for the 2nd, 3rd or 4th overall.

For instance (and I know this is totally hypothetical because you can't trade draft picks):

Say we get the first overall pick and the Pirates get the second overall pick, although it looks like Pittsburgh is going to make it a tight race. For the sake of this example just pretend that the season ended today...

Pittsburgh just got an expensive, very good pitcher in Taillon. Their problem is that they need some depth, what if we came in and offered something like Tillman, Erbe, Berry, and our 2nd rounder for the #2 overall pick. They would also save A LOT of money by not having to pay the number two bonus. I think that deal would help both teams a lot, they could get two middle-of-the-rotation pitchers (especially in the NL) as well as a back-end of the bullpen guy, Erbe, and would have two second round picks which could give them some flexibility to trade back into the end of the first round to grab another pitcher/position player.

[H0smash]

True that, but I'd say all 3 of them have a good chance at being anywhere from a #3 to an ace, depending on how they continue to develop.

And he can throw 94, it's just a matter of he's doing it or not. Stats tell you a story of what has happened and then let you draw conclusions on what CAN be done going forward, sometimes around here we forget that they don't tell the entire story.

Oh I know that he can...

But he doesn't, and it's really nice to have a guy like Lester who sits around 94 and can top out at 96 or 97. As a pitcher, your margin for error increases with that velocity over a guy like Matusz who sits around 91 and doesn't usually throw harder than 92 or 93. I still think Matusz is great, but I also think it would be nice to have a guy before him in the rotation who was a true power arm.

[Greg Pappas]

Trading draft picks is not allowed.

[QBsILLEST1]

That's not really fair considering that Machado isn't a sure-thing to stick at SS. Also, I went through Matusz' games all the way back to May 15 on PitchFX, his make speed was 92.6, he does not throw 94 mph.

I don't understand the correlation you are trying to make.....I never said Machado is a sure thing to stick at SS or even become an average MLB ball player at any position. So, I guess we can agree that regardless of talent or draft position, no one is a sure thing. The TOR potential college arms in the 11 draft are better bets to become TOR pitchers than Machado is to become an all star SS.

As AS just said, Matusz can touch 94, is there PITCH FX for the AFL a couple of years ago when he was there? He touched 94 there. We need to remember, Matusz is not a power guy, he is a command/finesse kind of pitcher with strong secondaries. He is also a good pitchability pitcher, he knows that command, and the ability to go deep into the game is more important than throwing as hard as he can.