Trent Mummey off to a great start

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Well he clearly belongs at Frederick next year, the main thing that is impressing me is his power. there was a major concern whether his power would translate to the professional game and so far it has. If he can keep up the power production plus his plate discipline we have a major sleeper prospect.

[Frobby]

I was about to ask this question...

What is the normal progression for a college bat like Mummey, if he continues on this pace?

I think Stotle is being a bit optimistic with getting Mummey to Bowie by mid-season next year. I'd just hope to get him done with Frederick. In terms of some recent guys:

- Reimold crushed Aberdeen and went straight to Frederick during the year he was drafted. He started again at Frederick the next year and spent the year there. He might have made it to Bowie, but some nagging injuries slowed him down.

- Fiorentino crushed Aberdeen and went to Delmarva for the last month and a half of the year he was drafted. He started the next year in Frederick and spent the year there, except for a brief (probably ill-advised) promotion to Baltimore in May to fill in for an injured player.

- Angle spent his first summer after being drafted at Aberdeen, then spent the next year at Delmarva.

- Hudson did the same thing as Angle.

The only guy I can think of who spent a half-year at Bowie the year after the draft was Wieters.

[Frobby]

Well he clearly belongs at Frederick next year

Eh, I wouldn't say "clear" yet. There are still six weeks left this season, and he's only been playing for four. I think it is probable he will be in Frederick next year, but a lot could happen between now and then.

[Stotle]

I think Stotle is being a bit optimistic with getting Mummey to Bowie by mid-season next year. I'd just hope to get him done with Frederick. In terms of some recent guys:

- Reimold crushed Aberdeen and went straight to Frederick during the year he was drafted. He started again at Frederick the next year and spent the year there. He might have made it to Bowie, but some nagging injuries slowed him down.

- Fiorentino crushed Aberdeen and went to Delmarva for the last month and a half of the year he was drafted. He started the next year in Frederick and spent the year there, except for a brief (probably ill-advised) promotion to Baltimore in May to fill in for an injured player.

- Angle spent his first summer after being drafted at Aberdeen, then spent the next year at Delmarva.

- Hudson did the same thing as Angle.

The only guy I can think of who spent a half-year at Bowie the year after the draft was Wieters.

Yes, midseason would be aggressive. I was hoping for four to five weeks at Bowie and a full year there in 2012. A full year at HiA is great, as well.

[QBsILLEST1]

So, how concerned are you about Bryce Brentz struggling as much as he is?

Not Stotle, but you have to remember that Brentz just suffered a major injury, plus he is in a new place(the pros) where it is much more difficult and he is still trying to get used to everything. Maybe he came back too soon trying to prove his status and in turn is pressing at the plate because he may fell 100%, but he isn't, he can't be just yet IMO atleast.....

I wouldn't be too surprised if he didn't really get into much of a groove this year at all, and I wouldn't be too down on him. But, if next year he shows the same issues, then I'd definitely begin to worry.

[Stotle]

So, how concerned are you about Bryce Brentz struggling as much as he is?

I haven't seen him at the pro level but the stats show Brentz has been incredibly unlucky, considering his .210 BABIP with a 14% LD percentage. Were you taking that into account or just looking at his slash lines? I will say that even factoring that in, it seems like he is off to a very slow start.

Given his broken hand this spring and that the strength may by late in returning (affecting his bat speed) I don't expect him to necessarily step-in at his best. Add to that the fact that he has a track record with wood, a track record at the collegiate level (albeit against "lesser" comp) and it would take an extended period of struggle for me to reverse my thoughts on him. I still like him as a prospect.

[Stotle]

I thought it was a hairline fracture of his ankle? Did he have a broken hand too?

You're absolutely right. I was confusing him in my mind with Alvarez his junior year. He fouled a ball off his foot in BP and only missed like 2 weeks (came back a week and a half early, if I recall). So I wouldn't think bat speed would be a carry-over issue. He has good bat speed and that should still be the case.

I do know that he can press, as a rule, hitting bad balls. Perhaps the jump to the pros has him pushing a little too hard, rather than letting the game coming to him? I don't know. The rest of my post remains an accurate reflection of my stance. I'm not concerned.

[Stotle]

Regarding Mummey, the 4th round pick of the Orioles:

Regarding Brentz the supplemental 1st rounder of the Red Sox:

I guess there's an explanation that makes sense but it seems that you have two different standards depending on what team drafted the player.

Haha. There's the RZ I love. No, my standards are not based on which team is drafting -- and no I won't crawl into the mud with you again.

It's very simple. I have two different standards for players with completely different profiles. I have seen Brentz rake up close with wood. His physical tools carry fewer questions. One is a first round talent -- one is an outside Top 100 guy for me (based on my board -- I don't know where Mummey ranks on other boards like BA's). If Matt Harvey is outperformed by Seth Rosin in their first couple months of play, I'll still have more confidence in Harvey being the better long-term player.

Not sure why this would be a surprise, or a difficult viewpoint to acknowledge?

And to be clear, the "concern" is through the prospect lens. Based on Mummey's profile, if he were struggling to hit I'd be concerned that his bat isn't translating due to his strength (which was a concern I listed for him). I wouldn't write him off at all, but it would concern me that something I flagged was gaining evidence.

[Sports Guy]

Haha. There's the RZ I love. No, my standards are not based on which team is drafting -- and no I won't crawl into the mud with you again.

It's very simple. I have two different standards for players with completely different profiles. I have seen Brentz rake up close with wood. His physical tools carry fewer questions. One is a first round talent -- one is an outside Top 100 guy for me (based on my board -- I don't know where Mummey ranks on other boards like BA's). If Matt Harvey is outperformed by Seth Rosin in their first couple months of play, I'll still have more confidence in Harvey being the better long-term player.

Not sure why this would be a surprise, or a difficult viewpoint to acknowledge?

And to be clear, the "concern" is through the prospect lens. Based on Mummey's profile, if he were struggling to hit I'd be concerned that his bat isn't translating due to his strength (which was a concern I listed for him). I wouldn't write him off at all, but it would concern me that something I flagged was gaining evidence.

Wait a minute...You mean to tell me that after scouting these guys for months and months, that you aren't going to allow yourself to totally change your opinion on a prospect after a small sampling of at bats in their initial time in the minors?

[Stotle]

Ok. I guess I misread. When someone pointed out that Mummey was doing well, it came across to me that you would expect an advanced college hitter to do well (even though I think Mummey is exceeding expectations a bit) and you'd be concerned if he wasn't doing well. That's why I brought up Brentz, who obviously isn't doing well so far.

Fair enough. Thanks, RZ.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Shocking that you didn't respond to anything I wrote -- you just go back to your original post calling me a hypocrite. Great convo tactic -- not trolly at all. I'll restate again.

I would expect Brentz to do well, also. It just isn't a disaster (yet) that he isn't (yet).

I thought I was pretty explicit in my last post explaining why one player might have some more leeway from me (and pro evaluators, I'd add). Again, the reason I'd be concerned about Mummey right off the bat is 1) I don't see a track record with wood and haven't personally seen him with wood, so 2) seeing struggles would reinforce some concerns I had about his game translating to wood. I have experience (both via stats and in-person observation) with Brentz having success with wood against good competition.

I agree, Mummey's start has been awesome, super cool, encouraging, impressive, feel good, take-that-people-who-passed-on-me, Top-20-Baseball-America-League-Top-20s-in-the-Fall-worthy.

Sorry it looked to you like I was beating-up on the Orioles.

Dude you're too emotionally tied up with RZ, his last post acknowledged that he misread you not that you're a hypocrite. I feel like I read something completely different than you.

[Stotle]

Dude you're too emotionally tied up with RZ, his last post acknowledged that he misread you not that you're a hypocrite. I feel like I read something completely different than you.

Fair enough -- I disagree (based on past interactions) but I'll just delete. Thanks, MP.

[cindyluvsbrady]

In his debut at Aberdeen:

2 for 4 with a walk yesterday

3 for 5 with a double today

I love him!!!!:clap3:

[scottbbfm]

Maybe it has nothing to do with anything, but maybe it was helpful that he was signed quickly and played immediately. So many of these guys don't even get to play their first summer, I wonder if it hampers their development at all.

[clapdiddy]

Maybe it has nothing to do with anything, but maybe it was helpful that he was signed quickly and played immediately. So many of these guys don't even get to play their first summer, I wonder if it hampers their development at all.

...and Machado remains unsigned...