Trent Mummey off to a great start

[allstar1579]

I should have been more clear on the "wasted pick" comment. I totally agree that using picks after the 6th or 7th round on tough signs is a good strategy and a good risk. I was arguing that if the Orioles took tough signs in the first 10 rounds and didn't sign a bunch of them, that we'd call them wasted picks. As I said, I like the Red Sox strategy and am guessing that the Orioles started to do more of that in last year's draft.

Again though, I'll stick by my opinion that not signing guys like Brady or Scheppers just means the O's didn't come up with the money. It doesn't mean they were better at identifying talent than other teams. I"m 100% sure that other teams had Brady higher than a 40th round talent or wherever the Orioles took him.

Yeah I'm not saying you make those picks before the 10th, I might even say not before the 15th for me, but that's just cause I'm more into the draft than most and can probably target some guys in that range that might not be filler.

I won't disagree with your opinion, I'm with you that they NEED to sign those guys, you'll see my very strong opinion in the draft forum that we need to start spending a TON in the draft until MLB tells us that we can't. Can you imagine what we could have if instead of 2 years and $12m of Gonzalez we sunk an extra $6m this year and next. If that money is spent wisely on some tough signs...wow. And that is where my frustration lies.

It does take a lot of talent to ID the guys that are going to be stars in college. Tell me, who drafted Strasburg out of HS?

(see what I mean about pushing through arguments with you? we are already closer to an agreement on things)

[WV O's]

Usually you guys are both insightful and on topic. This thread has taken a slight detour. It is a reminder why I LOVE the OH as opposed to any other sports site...even at it's worst..it ain't that bad!

[allstar1579]

Usually you guys are both insightful and on topic. This thread has taken a slight detour. It is a reminder why I LOVE the OH as opposed to any other sports site...even at it's worst..it ain't that bad!

Yeah I know it got away from us a little bit, I was thinking that a couple posts ago, it was at it's base from the Brentz v. Mummey debate though. We can leave it for now and get back to it in a new thread, I'm sure it will pop up again, sorry guys!

[WV O's]

Yeah I know it got away from us a little bit, I was thinking that a couple posts ago, it was at it's base from the Brentz v. Mummey debate though. We can leave it for now and get back to it in a new thread, I'm sure it will pop up again, sorry guys!

It is all good. Humanity creeps in even on this amazing message board.

It really is nice having you all as resources.

Thanks to you SG and RZNJ for your contribution.

[QBsILLEST1]

Lead off the game with a HR, nice to see him still hitting with some unexpected power.....

[ThisIsOurHouse]

Lead off the game with a HR, nice to see him still hitting with some unexpected power.....

He also got a double so far today. That ties him for the league lead in 2B's

[Frobby]

I'm beginning to feel that Mummey is going to prove the steal of the draft for us. He had good power numbers in college but some scouts didn't think it would translate to wooden bats. So far, Mummey is proving those reservations completely unfounded.

[Stotle]

I'm beginning to feel that Mummey is going to prove the steal of the draft for us. He had good power numbers in college but some scouts didn't think it would translate to wooden bats. So far, Mummey is proving those reservations completely unfounded.

Two questions:

How good do you expect Mummey to be (if you had to guess right now)?

Do you feel that the data set you have on him at short season so far has significant predictive value?

I'm honestly curious, as I haven't looked into similar stats and how well they hold up as players progress from short-season ball. Are 10 doubles and 3 HRs in 100 PA a strong indication of solid pro power, historically?

[Sports Guy]

He should be moved up to Delmarva.

[Stotle]

I'm beginning to feel that Mummey is going to prove the steal of the draft for us. He had good power numbers in college but some scouts didn't think it would translate to wooden bats. So far, Mummey is proving those reservations completely unfounded.

Here's a guy I liked at UCLA -- mostly for his glove at SS. He was also a 4th Rd pick in 2008 (San Fran):

Brandon Crawford

                                                                                                                               Year   Age          Tm    Lg   Lev Aff   G  PA  AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS  TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB2008    21     2 Teams 2 Lgs Rk-A- SFG   5  16  16   3   6  1  1  0   3  0  1  0   3 .375 .375 .563  .938   9   1   0  0  0   02009    22     2 Teams 2 Lgs AA-A+ SFG 133 542 497  59 140 28  4 10  48 13 11 30 132 .282 .328 .414  .742 206   9   5  8  2   02009    22     SanJose  CALL    A+ SFG  25 119 105  21  39  2  2  6  17  2  4 10  32 .371 .445 .600 1.045  63   1   4  0  0   02009    22 Connecticut    EL    AA SFG 108 423 392  38 101 26  2  4  31 11  7 20 100 .258 .294 .365  .659 143   8   1  8  2   02010    23    Richmond    EL    AA SFG  79 342 291  43  70 12  3  7  22  4  1 39  77 .241 .337 .375  .712 109   8   6  1  5   03 Seasons                              217 900 804 105 216 41  8 17  73 17 13 69 212 .269 .332 .403  .735 324  18  11  9  7   0AA (2 seasons)                         187 765 683  81 171 38  5 11  53 15  8 59 177 .250 .313 .369  .682 252  16   7  9  7   0Rk (1 season)                            4  14  14   3   6  1  1  0   3  0  1  0   3 .429 .429 .643 1.071   9   1   0  0  0   0A- (1 season)                            1   2   2   0   0  0  0  0   0  0  0  0   0 .000 .000 .000  .000   0   0   0  0  0   0A+ (1 season)                           25 119 105  21  39  2  2  6  17  2  4 10  32 .371 .445 .600 1.045  63   1   4  0  0   0

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Generated 7/19/2010.

He was slugging .600 at HiA through over 100 ABs and has yet to climb back over .400 since being promoted to AA. Regardless of my personal feelings on Mummey's profile, I think it is probably prudent to wait a while before stating that concerns of pro evaluators as to Mummey's power against advanced pitching w/wood were "completely unfounded".

You may be right, Frobs, but I think you're being much more reactionary than analytical in this one instance. Just my opinion; no offense intended.

[Frobby]

Two questions:

How good do you expect Mummey to be (if you had to guess right now)?

Do you feel that the data set you have on him at short season so far has significant predictive value?

I'm honestly curious, as I haven't looked into similar stats and how well they hold up as players progress from short-season ball. Are 10 doubles and 3 HRs in 100 PA a strong indication of solid pro power, historically?

I have no expectations about Mummey one way or the other. I wouldn't know the guy if he was standing right beside me right now. I've never seen him play, and I only know a little about his college career, so I'm in no position to even guess how he'll do.

As to the predictive power of short-season stats, I doubt they have much. But I do think we've seen enough to conclude that there is more power there than some scouts thought -- whatever that means.

[Stotle]

I have no expectations about Mummey one way or the other. I wouldn't know the guy if he was standing right beside me right now. I've never seen him play, and I only know a little about his college career, so I'm in no position to even guess how he'll do.

As to the predictive power of short-season stats, I doubt they have much. But I do think we've seen enough to conclude that there is more power there than some scouts thought -- whatever that means.

But looking at Brandon Crawford (who had similar concerns raised with his power/bat), we see that success and power at HiA doesn't mean it will carry over to the upper-levels. Were the scouts that questioned Crawford's power potential wrong at HiA but then right against at AA? Shrug. I don't agree with your bolded, but there's always room for different interpretations on all sides. It could be that Mummey is going to be a legit .430 slugger in the mold of a Brian Roberts, but I don't think anything in 100 ABs of short-season ball supports that one way or the other.

[Frobby]

But looking at Brandon Crawford (who had similar concerns raised with his power/bat), we see that success and power at HiA doesn't mean it will carry over to the upper-levels. Were the scouts that questioned Crawford's power potential wrong at HiA but then right against at AA? Shrug. I don't agree with your bolded, but there's always room for different interpretations on all sides. It could be that Mummey is going to be a legit .430 slugger in the mold of a Brian Roberts, but I don't think anything in 100 ABs of short-season ball supports that one way or the other.

I think you are reading too much into what I said, or maybe more accurately, maybe I read too much into what I saw scouts had said. I have no idea what Mummey will do in the upper minors. But I had been given the impression that as soon as he was handed a wood bat, he'd be like Miclat or Angle. And that, at least, isn't the case.

As to players who hit HRs in the lower minors but lacked power as they got higher up, I don't need to look outside our own organization. I only need to look as far as my pet player, Jeff Fiorentino.

[mcgraw238]

I think you are reading too much into what I said, or maybe more accurately, maybe I read too much into what I saw scouts had said. I have no idea what Mummey will do in the upper minors. But I had been given the impression that as soon as he was handed a wood bat, he'd be like Miclat or Angle. And that, at least, isn't the case.

As to players who hit HRs in the lower minors but lacked power as they got higher up, I don't need to look outside our own organization. I only need to look as far as my pet player, Jeff Fiorentino.

Or mine...Brandon Tripp.

[Stotle]

The comparison to Crawford isn't a great one. A lot of Crawford's SLG was tied to his .371 average. We all know the California League is a hitter's league. I"m not sure if San Jose is one of the local band boxes or not. Another difference is that Crawford's plate discipline was poor and could be exploited at higher levels. Mummey is producing good power numbers while striking out less than 10% of the time. He's also walked more than he's struck out. Another good sign is the amount of doubles. Aberdeen, as far as I know, has always been a fair to tough park for hitters and the NY Penn league on a whole, the same way. Mummey's power numbers his junior year were off the charts. Not a big deal. Last year, Ackley had good power numbers. The difference, IMO is that I could see Ackley didn't have a power swing. While Mummey is clearly not a big guy, he's not scrawny either and he gets good leverage in his swing and produces power. We obviously differ on the amount he's capable of producing. I think he's certainly capable of producing BRob type power at the ML level. I'm not ready to predict annual 20 homer seasons but I feel confident in saying the single digits is a low estimate.

The Crawford point is a good one -- he was just the first guy that popped into my head because I remember being shocked at his start to pro ball (having viewed him as a glove first guy). You're right that it isn't a good comparison because of the high BA. Maybe 100 ABs at short-season is a completely appropriate data set (since we aren't looking at his game film, right?) to determine his future power output as a MLer. I am doubtful, but I am also biased by my take on him after watching him at Auburn. Maybe you and Frobby are right to declare power concerns as overblown. I guess time will tell.

As far as my "single digit" prediction -- it was best guess estimate, or a rough sketch of a future ML profile. I thought it was assumed, given we are projecting three to five years into the future. "Write-it-in-stone" predictions tend to be rather silly that far out, but I should have been more precise with my language to avoid confusion. To you, high-single digits is a low estimate. To me, it's just an anchor for a projection with room on both sides that wouldn't surprise (5 HR season or 14 HR season). Maybe just two different approaches to projection? I realize you didn't name me with the "single digit projection" part of your quote, but I assumed you were referencing the take I gave when someone asked my opinion back around draft time.