Trent Mummey off to a great start

[Stotle]

I think you are reading too much into what I said, or maybe more accurately, maybe I read too much into what I saw scouts had said. I have no idea what Mummey will do in the upper minors. But I had been given the impression that as soon as he was handed a wood bat, he'd be like Miclat or Angle. And that, at least, isn't the case.

As to players who hit HRs in the lower minors but lacked power as they got higher up, I don't need to look outside our own organization. I only need to look as far as my pet player, Jeff Fiorentino.

Ah, got it. My fault. I didn't consider that there was a possibility for association with someone like a Miclat or Angle (neither of whom, I believe, hit homeruns in their last two years of college ball). Likewise, it looks like I was indeed reading too much into your point (or we were just speaking from different vantages).

I think the concerns are more closely tied to his size and swing, which some view as somewhat limiting in the power department. At the same time (and I've acknowledged this) he showed a great ability to barrel the ball in college, which bodes well for hard contact down the line. It's just a question of whether he's strong enough for that hard contact to turn into extra bases.

[Lucky Jim]

We should note, too, that Roberts was a .370 SLG guy in the minors. So, you know, any one-off comparisons for predictive power are inherently limited.

I'm just kidding. I think that Mummey's start is encouraging, but hardly predictive.

[cindyluvsbrady]

He should be moved up to Delmarva.

I would like to at least see him 1 more time at My Ironbirds:):clap3:

[Lucky Jim]

Of note, Mummey's LD% is only 10% this year.

[Stotle]

Of note, Mummey's LD% is only 10% this year.

He must really be working the gaps with his FBs, then, huh?

[Lucky Jim]

He must really be working the gaps with his FBs, then, huh?

Small sample, of course. Very high GB%. But, yeah, I'd say that he's been pretty fortunate w/ his overall numbers thus far.

Still, park- and luck- adjusted, he's still coming out to a .885 OPS. So, again, no reason not to be encouraged.

[Frobby]

Question - How reliable is the batted ball data we get from the minors? Is it just as good as what we get at the major league level? In the minors, who is deciding whether a hit was a line drive or a fly ball? Are there the same checks and double-checks as in the majors?

I ask, in part, because I seem to see some pretty extreme LD% numbers on minorleaguesplits.com, and they don't always seems to comport to common sense. For example, last year Brandon Snyder had a 27% line drive rate at Norfolk, yet his BABIP was only .321. That seems like a very unlikely scenario.

[Stotle]

Question - How reliable is the batted ball data we get from the minors? Is it just as good as what we get at the major league level? In the minors, who is deciding whether a hit was a line drive or a fly ball? Are there the same checks and double-checks as in the majors?

I ask, in part, because I seem to see some pretty extreme LD% numbers on minorleaguesplits.com, and they don't always seems to comport to common sense. For example, last year Brandon Snyder had a 27% line drive rate at Norfolk, yet his BABIP was only .321. That seems like a very unlikely scenario.

I would assume they use play-by-play data, but am not certain.

[Arthur_Bryant]

Question - How reliable is the batted ball data we get from the minors? Is it just as good as what we get at the major league level? In the minors, who is deciding whether a hit was a line drive or a fly ball? Are there the same checks and double-checks as in the majors?

I ask, in part, because I seem to see some pretty extreme LD% numbers on minorleaguesplits.com, and they don't always seems to comport to common sense. For example, last year Brandon Snyder had a 27% line drive rate at Norfolk, yet his BABIP was only .321. That seems like a very unlikely scenario.

You beat me to it -- again.

In the past year I have referred to the batted-ball data on milbsplits.com, including Snyder's last year at Norfolk (from which I concluded that he had been hitting in very bad luck). But the methods may be questionable.

Those who make the judgment call between FB and LD are essentially digitizing an analog event, and that always introduces some static. I suppose that in MLB those who make that decision are well-trained. They also have the benefit of video if they need to scrutinize the play. In the minors, that call is probably made by the official scorekeeper, who is probably being paid a slight stipend for the extra duty, and who may or may not be well-trained, or even take the job seriously. And he is unlikely to have video--especially unlikely to have it in the lower levels.

Some fly balls are obvious fly balls, and some line drives are clearly line drives. But inevitably there's a zone of uncertainty, and with a less-trained and possibly unmotivated observer, the grey area will be larger, and the data will be less useful. Furthermore, if the observer has a consistent bias, the data will be consistently misleading.

Something to think about the next time we look at those numbers.

[Lucky Jim]

You beat me to it -- again.

In the past year I have referred to the batted-ball data on milbsplits.com, including Snyder's last year at Norfolk (from which I concluded that he had been hitting in very bad luck). But the methods may be questionable.

Those who make the judgment call between FB and LD are essentially digitizing an analog event, and that always introduces some static. I suppose that in MLB those who make that decision are well-trained. They also have the benefit of video if they need to scrutinize the play. In the minors, that call is probably made by the official scorekeeper, who is probably being paid a slight stipend for the extra duty, and who may or may not be well-trained, or even take the job seriously. And he is unlikely to have video--especially unlikely to have it in the lower levels.

Some fly balls are obvious fly balls, and some line drives are clearly line drives. But inevitably there's a zone of uncertainty, and with a less-trained and possibly unmotivated observer, the grey area will be larger, and the data will be less useful. Furthermore, if the observer has a consistent bias, the data will be consistently misleading.

Something to think about the next time we look at those numbers.

I agree this is the case, but have doubts about the number of "uncertain" balls that would cause the uncertainty.

Just my take, but I think that the numbers are solid, but not ideally precise, information.

[Sports Guy]

When any player is on a hot streak, don't you think that they will normally have unsustainable numbers?

[allstar1579]

I agree this is the case, but have doubts about the number of "uncertain" balls that would cause the uncertainty.

Just my take, but I think that the numbers are solid, but not ideally precise, information.

Pretty much dead on. The official scorers for each home team have the final say, and some of them while good, aren't perfect and will miss some stuff.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I agree this is the case, but have doubts about the number of "uncertain" balls that would cause the uncertainty.

Just my take, but I think that the numbers are solid, but not ideally precise, information.

Maybe, but I wonder.

My 16 YO son is playing on two teams this summer, so I have been watching a ton of baseball, not all of it scintillating. Just for my own amusement, I began playing the LD/FB game with every batted ball in the air -- not keeping track, just trying to see how difficult the job would be if I were doing it for real. In my experience, after maybe 60 or 70 games doing this, there is a big grey zone. In most games, there will be at least a couple of balls that are subject to personal interpretation, if not a coin flip. Some games, even more.

I'm not trained, but I wonder how much training an official scorer in a short season league would get (EDIT: I mean training in terms of making this judgement call). I also wonder how seriously s/he would take the job. Because if you approach it trivially, the data would be almost worthless, seems to me.

[Can_of_corn]

When any player is on a hot streak, don't you think that they will normally have unsustainable numbers?

Wouldn't that be a definition of hot streak?

[Frobby]

When any player is on a hot streak, don't you think that they will normally have unsustainable numbers?

We don't know if Mummey is on a hot streak or not, since we only have 103 plate appearances of history to go on. Maybe .312/.379/.538 is his "true" level of ability in relation to the NY-Penn League, or maybe he's just hot.

Just for funsies, here are a few comps from NY-Penn seasons past.

Jeff Fiorentino (age 21): .348/.474/.674 (57 PA)

Nolan Reimold (age 21): .294/.392/.550 (212 PA)

Nick Markakis (age 19): .283/.372/.395 (240 PA)

Val Majewksi (age 21): .300/.376/.464 (125 PA)

Matt Angle (age 21): .301/.421/.352 (287 PA)

Those are the top outfielders I can recall who have passed through Aberdeen right after being drafted.