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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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Why wouldn't it be? How do you know you don't end up drafting better players than you traded?

We likely end up with a first round pick and, of course, a supplemental first rounder. That could be more valuable than Tillman, Guthrie and Bell..plus you get the production of Fielder for 1.5 seasons.

Good Idea SG .... Except if Fielder doesnt sign a extension then you'd set rebuilding back a few years... If you draft another Tillman & Bell it will take several years for them to be here or close. I say you try to work out a extension.

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Mackus Hangout Grand Counsel

Mackus

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Why wouldn't it be? How do you know you don't end up drafting better players than you traded?

We likely end up with a first round pick and, of course, a supplemental first rounder. That could be more valuable than Tillman, Guthrie and Bell..plus you get the production of Fielder for 1.5 seasons.

Time value comes into play here just like it does with contracts.

A couple draft picks in 2012 don't see MLB until 2014 at the earliest most likely. We've got Tillman and Bell now.

Of course, if we don't win anything in that time frame, then it doesn't really matter.

If you think Tillman and Bell are going to flop, then the trade makes sense. If you think they'll be solid, then it's in the gray. If you think they'll (or one) will be stars, then it would be a disaster.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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Why wouldn't it be? How do you know you don't end up drafting better players than you traded?

We likely end up with a first round pick and, of course, a supplemental first rounder. That could be more valuable than Tillman, Guthrie and Bell..plus you get the production of Fielder for 1.5 seasons.

The 1.4 seasons of production of Fielder don't really matter much imo since they won't lead us to anything significant.

Sure, the two players drafted could end up being better than Tillman, Bell, and the players we can get for Guthrie. But is that a bet you want to make? It's also greatly delaying the impact we'll get out of these guys. The draft pics won't play for us until 2014 at the earliest most likely.

BTW, if we just want more draft picks, there's probably a better way to achieve that imo.

Plus, if the money saved from not getting Prince would be spent on international prospects and over-slot picks, that would be much better for the future.

Not saying that is likely, but if we are talking about what we'd want to happen, that's what I'd go with.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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Time value comes into play here just like it does with contracts.

A couple draft picks in 2012 don't see MLB until 2014 at the earliest most likely. We've got Tillman and Bell now.

Of course, if we don't win anything in that time frame, then it doesn't really matter.

If you think Tillman and Bell are going to flop, then the trade makes sense. If you think they'll be solid, then it's in the gray. If you think they'll (or one) will be stars, then it would be a disaster.

To me that's the exact reason not to trade for Fielder in the first place. He's not signing an extension, and he's not going to be the one piece that gets us to the playoffs in 2011. Just say no.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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The 1.4 seasons of production of Fielder don't really matter much imo since they won't lead us to anything significant.
It could lead us to a winning season...It could lead to better seasons for the young players. I get what you are saying but playoffs or bust isn't neccassarily the only thing to look at here and I am assuming that is what you are talking about here based on your prior comments.
Sure, the two players drafted could end up being better than Tillman, Bell, and the players we can get for Guthrie. But is that a bet you want to make? It's also greatly delaying the impact we'll get out of these guys. The draft pics won't play for us until 2014 at the earliest most likely.

Yes, this is the real issue IMO...well that and if you want to deal Tillman and/or Bell.

I am not sure if I would do it or not. I can say this...I don't think it is a bad deal for us at all.

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mweb Hangout Grand Counsel

mweb

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It could lead us to a winning season...It could lead to better seasons for the young players. I get what you are saying but playoffs or bust isn't neccassarily the only thing to look at here and I am assuming that is what you are talking about here based on your prior comments.

Yes, this is the real issue IMO...well that and if you want to deal Tillman and/or Bell.

I am not sure if I would do it or not. I can say this...I don't think it is a bad deal for us at all.

I don't think Prince being here will help the young players much, if at all. I also doubt it leads to a winning season at this point, but it obviously depends on how we finish and what else is done with the roster.

I also put in an edit saying we could use the money for Prince and invest it in over-slot picks and international players. So that would heavily sway the better future argument to the side of not doing the trade. I know, not very realistic, but either is trading for Prince in the first place.

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carolinaoriole Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

carolinaoriole

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Why wouldn't it be? How do you know you don't end up drafting better players than you traded?

We likely end up with a first round pick and, of course, a supplemental first rounder. That could be more valuable than Tillman, Guthrie and Bell..plus you get the production of Fielder for 1.5 seasons.

I agree with this.

We get his production for 1.5 years and it at least gets the Orioles in the converastion with him on an extension.

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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Why wouldn't it be? How do you know you don't end up drafting better players than you traded?

We likely end up with a first round pick and, of course, a supplemental first rounder. That could be more valuable than Tillman, Guthrie and Bell..plus you get the production of Fielder for 1.5 seasons.

It's unlikely the picks would be more valuable than those players. These would be mid-to-late first round picks, plus supplemental. Those kind of picks average maybe 5 WAR each. Depending on what they do the rest of the year, Guthrie, Tillman and Bell could be worth more than five wins in 2010, and they're under contract for a long time to come.

Example, not sure if it's representative, but I picked 2005. The best '05 1st round supplemental pick has been Travis Buck. Best players taken after the 15th pick that year have been Ellsbury and Garza, and there are about 15 players with a WAR so far of <= 0.0. There are much better odds of the picks being worth nothing than of being worth more than those three players.

And as someone has already mentioned, in the best of cases those picks are years behind even a guy like Bell.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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You don't think Nick would be helped a ton with Fielder batting behind him?

Just to chime in, I do believe in "protection". Fielder would definitely provide it. Thing is Dunn or Pena or others will provide it too, for much less.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Just to chime in, I do believe in "protection". Fielder would definitely provide it. Thing is Dunn or Pena or others will provide it too, for much less.

I would rather pitch to Dunn or Pena than Nick.

They are more likely to hit a homer but Nick is more likely to hurt you in all facets of the game(with the bat) than Dunn or Pena.

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JTrea81 Hangout Grand Counsel

JTrea81

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Just to chime in, I do believe in "protection". Fielder would definitely provide it. Thing is Dunn or Pena or others will provide it too, for much less.

Carlos Pena is not Prince Fielder.

Nobody fears Pena in a lineup anymore as he's been declining since 2007.

Adam Dunn isn't Fielder either.

The only combination of a difference making bat that can protect Markakis and strike fear into opponents, that gives you the competitive fire that you need desperately in the clubhouse, and is young enough to still be at peak production when the Orioles should be competing is Prince Fielder.

He is the perfect fit for the Orioles.

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Sports Guy Hangout Grand Counsel

Sports Guy

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Carlos Pena is not Prince Fielder.

Nobody fears Pena in a lineup anymore as he's been declining since 2007.

Adam Dunn isn't Fielder either.

The only combination of a difference making bat that can protect Markakis and strike fear into opponents, that gives you the competitive fire that you need desperately in the clubhouse, and is young enough to still be at peak production when the Orioles should be competing is Prince Fielder.

He is the perfect fit for the Orioles.

Until you factor in cost. At that point, he makes zero sense for us.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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Carlos Pena is not Prince Fielder.

Nobody fears Pena in a lineup anymore as he's been declining since 2007.

Adam Dunn isn't Fielder either.

The only combination of a difference making bat that can protect Markakis and strike fear into opponents, that gives you the competitive fire that you need desperately in the clubhouse, and is young enough to still be at peak production when the Orioles should be competing is Prince Fielder.

He is the perfect fit for the Orioles.

Gotta give you credit, you don't back down! :P

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